Wrestleknownothing Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Now that Intermat, Flo, and Wrestlestat have each updated their rankings to include results at the Collegiate Duals I have updated the team projections. Reminder: I treat rankings like they are seed projections Then based on average results by seed for the past 12 tournaments (2010 - 2022) I calculate an expected points total Expected points only takes into account the advancement and placement points - no bonus points Expected points differs from maximum points scoreable because not every wrestler finishes at their seed. For example, #1 seeds only win 98.33% of the time. All American probability takes into account the same phenomena. For example, #8 seeds only finish in the top eight 50% of the time. So a #8 seed counts as half an AA. And seeds below #8 also count as a fraction of an AA. Said another way, with a 5.5 AA probability for PSU per Intermat there is a 50% chance they end with 5 AA's and a 50% chance they end with 6 AA's. 3 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 28, 2022 Author Share Posted December 28, 2022 Top 10 and Bottom 10 Changes in Expected Points since the pre-season ranks came out. Iowa State is hard charging for a spot on the podium. Meanwhile, injuries and transfers take their toll on ASU and Wyoming, respectively. 2 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionel Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 Final 2022 Team Projections So are you saying if the 2023 NCAA tournament were held this Thr/Fri/Sat maybe Penn St has a chance? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 28, 2022 Author Share Posted December 28, 2022 23 minutes ago, ionel said: Final 2022 Team Projections So are you saying if the 2023 NCAA tournament were held this Thr/Fri/Sat maybe Penn St has a chance? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ You are looking at it all wrong. Over the course of two months Iowa State has improved their total by 26 points while Penn State has added a measly 6.57, for a 19.43 net point gain for ISU. Right now ISU trails PSU by 38.3 points. So, ISU only needs four more months to pass PSU. If ISU can conspire to delay the 2023 NCAA tournament to April 27 then they will 100% be champions. It's just math. 2 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionel Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: You are looking at it all wrong. Over the course of two months Iowa State has improved their total by 26 points while Penn State has added a measly 6.57, for a 19.43 net point gain for ISU. Right now ISU trails PSU by 38.3 points. So, ISU only needs four more months to pass PSU. If ISU can conspire to delay the 2023 NCAA tournament to April 27 then they will 100% be champions. It's just math. ahh ... got it ... maybe the Iowa State University Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences can whip up a minny climate change event to delay the tournament by ~1.5 months. But also, you aren't going to bore us with any more 2022 projections, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 28, 2022 Author Share Posted December 28, 2022 24 minutes ago, ionel said: ahh ... got it ... maybe the Iowa State University Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences can whip up a minny climate change event to delay the tournament by ~1.5 months. But also, you aren't going to bore us with any more 2022 projections, correct? Don't project your insecurities on me. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ionel Posted December 28, 2022 Share Posted December 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said: Don't project your insecurities on me. My insecurities rank higher than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 28, 2022 Author Share Posted December 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, ionel said: My insecurities rank higher than most. The conceit that what Flo puts out are NOT predictions is what is rank. Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Husker_Du Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 great stuff TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrestleknownothing Posted December 29, 2022 Author Share Posted December 29, 2022 I decided to fold in the bonus point data so now I have total points projections using Intermat individual rankings: Top 25 1 Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinnacle Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 Which top ten schools are at greatest risk of finishing lower than their spot above? My take is Pitt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter Stevens Iowa-Grant/Highland, Wisconsin Class of 2026 Committed to Wisconsin Projected Weight: 141, 149
Griffin LaPlante St. Francis, New York Class of 2026 Committed to North Carolina State Projected Weight: 174
Dom Deputy Chestnut Ridge, Pennsylvania Class of 2026 Committed to North Carolina State Projected Weight: 125
Brandon Carr Sun Valley, Pennsylvania Class of 2025 Committed to Franklin & Marshall Projected Weight: 184, 197
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