Are the Democrats overplaying their hand???

[Paul158]

Sometimes political groups overplay their hand. Is this one of those times. It looks like this will be a really close election, coming down to about 7 swing states. We shall see.

[ionel]

18 minutes ago, Paul158 said:

Sometimes political groups overplay their hand. Is this one of those times. It looks like this will be a really close election, coming down to about 7 swing states. We shall see.

Is New York now a Trump state?  

[Paul158]

32 minutes ago, ionel said:

Is New York now a Trump state?  

If New York would go for Trump the election is over. No need to even tabulate the rest of the votes.

[PortaJohn]

Democrats are running a campaign par for the course.  Nothing out of the ordinary.  I'm assuming this thread has to do with the Stormy Daniels case.  

A) Most Dem & Rep operatives are on the record saying they doubt this verdict moves the needle.  Most likely outcome is Probation and maybe community service as some form of public embarrassment

B)  It's possible we see some poll movement one way or the other these upcoming weeks but it will just move back to where we are pre conviction

C) Trump has held a lead so far throughout most of the election cycle and Dems have acknowledged it (this excludes typical campaign cheerleading)

D) Trump's character is baked into the voter consciousness and it would take  a lot more than paying off a porn star to do damage to his voter base

E)  Could this have the Clinton effect (Bill/Monica)?  Most likely no unless the economy or some international crisis takes a turn for the worse and even more voters blame Biden

 

 

Edited May 31 by PortaJohn

[NM1965]

20 hours ago, Paul158 said:

Sometimes political groups overplay their hand. Is this one of those times. It looks like this will be a really close election, coming down to about 7 swing states. We shall see.

It won't be close. Biden will curbstomp Trump.  Rowe V Wade being overturned by the rightwingers of the Supreme Court, all of whom lied during their confirmation hearings in the Senate about Rowe V Wade and who ignored 50 years of precedent when they overturned it, will bring women voters out in droves. Perhaps you haven't noticed but Dems are winning all the special elections ever since, even in Deep Red states. It seems that women don't like the idea of being forced to have rape babies against their will, like what happened last week in Alabama with the 13 year old girl. 

Biden will win quite easily and the Dems will take a commanding majority in the House and Senate. Then perhaps it'll be time to impeach some Supreme Court justices for perjury. 

[PortaJohn]

2 hours ago, NM1965 said:

It won't be close. Biden will curbstomp Trump.  Rowe V Wade being overturned by the rightwingers of the Supreme Court, all of whom lied during their confirmation hearings in the Senate about Rowe V Wade and who ignored 50 years of precedent when they overturned it, will bring women voters out in droves. Perhaps you haven't noticed but Dems are winning all the special elections ever since, even in Deep Red states. It seems that women don't like the idea of being forced to have rape babies against their will, like what happened last week in Alabama with the 13 year old girl. 

Biden will win quite easily and the Dems will take a commanding majority in the House and Senate. Then perhaps it'll be time to impeach some Supreme Court justices for perjury. 

That's wishful thinking at this point

[ionel]

Don't ya hate it when 1965 wakes up and ruins 2024.  

[Paul158]

4 hours ago, NM1965 said:

It won't be close. Biden will curbstomp Trump.  Rowe V Wade being overturned by the rightwingers of the Supreme Court, all of whom lied during their confirmation hearings in the Senate about Rowe V Wade and who ignored 50 years of precedent when they overturned it, will bring women voters out in droves. Perhaps you haven't noticed but Dems are winning all the special elections ever since, even in Deep Red states. It seems that women don't like the idea of being forced to have rape babies against their will, like what happened last week in Alabama with the 13 year old girl. 

Biden will win quite easily and the Dems will take a commanding majority in the House and Senate. Then perhaps it'll be time to impeach some Supreme Court justices for perjury. 

I really hope all the democrats feel the way you do. I really hope the liberal media feels that way also.

[NM1965]

18 hours ago, Paul158 said:

I really hope all the democrats feel the way you do. I really hope the liberal media feels that way also.

Why? How does that help the traitor? 

[Paul158]

50 minutes ago, NM1965 said:

Why? How does that help the traitor? 

Some people might call it over confidence. I coached and wrestled for 25 years. You never underestimate your competition. Never!!!!! But I like that you are overconfident, and I hope Joe and his advisors are overconfident.

[mspart]

The detail to be looked at are the few swing states.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/

Michigan is 3.2% for Trump.  AZ is 2.7% for Trump.  NV is 6% for Trump.  GA 5.3% for Trump.  PA is 2.7% for Trump.   WI is 1% for Biden.   NC is 5.6% for Trump.  

This bodes well for Trump in the electoral college.    This represents 176 electoral votes, if we eliminate WI because it is currently for Biden, that is 166 electoral votes for Trump in the swing states.   He needs 104 from other states to secure the win.  

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2024-PG-CNN-ratings&game-view=map

I can't get a picture but they have a map of the US and probable outcomes.   Trump has 272 probable electoral votes and Biden has 225 probable electoral votes.  

Yep, if I was Biden I'd take NM1965's advice and just be overconfident. 

mspart