Tight team race

[TylerDurden]

  On 2/29/2024 at 2:26 PM, jajensen09 said:

I'd put Smith in for nebraska at 125. 

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I'm not being flippant and I think Smith is a very entertaining guy to watch, but what has he done to make you believe he could put together the five consecutive matches that it will take to win the NCAA title? 

Perhaps I look at these hypotheticals too literally, but I consider his seeding at the B1G and NCAAs before I'd put him up as a title contender - even at 125 this year. 

At the B1G, his seeding is probably 6-7-8 seed range. At the NCAA, he's a double-digit seed which means he's running into a top 8 seed in round two and each round after that. 

He was the No. 5 seed last year and was two and BBQ. Yes, I realize a year in the Nebraska room is better than one at App State, but I just don't see it.  

 

[1032004]

  On 2/29/2024 at 3:41 PM, jajensen09 said:

And hardy

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Ok him I meant to add but forgot lol

[1032004]

  On 2/29/2024 at 3:48 PM, TylerDurden said:

I'm not being flippant and I think Smith is a very entertaining guy to watch, but what has he done to make you believe he could put together the five consecutive matches that it will take to win the NCAA title? 

Perhaps I look at these hypotheticals too literally, but I consider his seeding at the B1G and NCAAs before I'd put him up as a title contender - even at 125 this year. 

At the B1G, his seeding is probably 6-7-8 seed range. At the NCAA, he's a double-digit seed which means he's running into a top 8 seed in round two and each round after that. 

He was the No. 5 seed last year and was two and BBQ. Yes, I realize a year in the Nebraska room is better than one at App State, but I just don't see it.  

 

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“what has he done to make you believe he could put together the five consecutive matches that it will take to win the NCAA title?”

You could say this about pretty much everyone at 125 except Ramos and McKee, who I believe are the only guys in the field to wrestle an NCAA tournament and lose less than twice, and Provo because of the gauntlet he ran at CKLV.  And those guys have a combined 13 NCAA losses this year.  That’s why Smith and like 20 other guys have a chance.

This year alone, he’s beaten: Ramos, DeAugustino, Spratley, Kaylor and Davis.  Among others in the current field he’s also beaten McKee and Poulin.  He’s certainly capable of winning it all.

 

[jajensen09]

  On 2/29/2024 at 3:48 PM, TylerDurden said:

I'm not being flippant and I think Smith is a very entertaining guy to watch, but what has he done to make you believe he could put together the five consecutive matches that it will take to win the NCAA title? 

Perhaps I look at these hypotheticals too literally, but I consider his seeding at the B1G and NCAAs before I'd put him up as a title contender - even at 125 this year. 

At the B1G, his seeding is probably 6-7-8 seed range. At the NCAA, he's a double-digit seed which means he's running into a top 8 seed in round two and each round after that. 

He was the No. 5 seed last year and was two and BBQ. Yes, I realize a year in the Nebraska room is better than one at App State, but I just don't see it.  

 

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He's beat Ramos and Davis and Michigan 125. You could say these statements about all 125. Smith is offensive and has a good tank which stylistically gives him a shot

[jajensen09]

  On 2/29/2024 at 4:15 PM, 1032004 said:

“what has he done to make you believe he could put together the five consecutive matches that it will take to win the NCAA title?”

You could say this about pretty much everyone at 125 except Ramos and McKee, who I believe are the only guys in the field to wrestle an NCAA tournament and lose less than twice, and Provo because of the gauntlet he ran at CKLV.  And those guys have a combined 13 NCAA losses this year.  That’s why Smith and like 20 other guys have a chance.

This year alone, he’s beaten: Ramos, DeAugustino, Spratley, Kaylor and Davis.  Among others in the current field he’s also beaten McKee and Poulin.  He’s certainly capable of winning it all.

 

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I see we have similar thoughts 

[Dogbone]

  On 2/29/2024 at 3:48 PM, TylerDurden said:

He was the No. 5 seed last year and was two and BBQ. Yes, I realize a year in the Nebraska room is better than one at App State, but I just don't see it.  

 

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You are being too harsh on him.  His losses were to Cardinale, who AA'd and had Ramos on the ropes in the quarters and former AA Deagustino.  

I think you need to look at this way.  Is anyone's ceiling above PSU's floor (not saying they will wrestle to their floor but the team race is such a non topic, its all we got).   Initially I didn't think so but now admit it is possible despite it being very unlikely. 

Similarly, about 20 guys can win 125 and someone is going to have to win 5 in a row so it is possible. 

[TylerDurden]

  On 2/29/2024 at 4:15 PM, 1032004 said:

“what has he done to make you believe he could put together the five consecutive matches that it will take to win the NCAA title?”

You could say this about pretty much everyone at 125 except Ramos and McKee, who I believe are the only guys in the field to wrestle an NCAA tournament and lose less than twice, and Provo because of the gauntlet he ran at CKLV.  And those guys have a combined 13 NCAA losses this year.  That’s why Smith and like 20 other guys have a chance.

This year alone, he’s beaten: Ramos, DeAugustino, Spratley, Kaylor and Davis.  Among others in the current field he’s also beaten McKee and Poulin.  He’s certainly capable of winning it all.

 

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  On 2/29/2024 at 4:17 PM, jajensen09 said:

He's beat Ramos and Davis and Michigan 125. You could say these statements about all 125. Smith is offensive and has a good tank which stylistically gives him a shot

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  On 2/29/2024 at 4:32 PM, Dogbone said:

You are being too harsh on him.  His losses were to Cardinale, who AA'd and had Ramos on the ropes in the quarters and former AA Deagustino.  

I think you need to look at this way.  Is anyone's ceiling above PSU's floor (not saying they will wrestle to their floor but the team race is such a non topic, its all we got).   Initially I didn't think so but now admit it is possible despite it being very unlikely. 

Similarly, about 20 guys can win 125 and someone is going to have to win 5 in a row so it is possible. 

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I see these as explanations about why he could win any one match - which I don't necessarily disagree with - not why he could win five in a row at the NCAA tournament from a double-digit seed.

I don't really buy the idea that 20 guys have a shot to win the title, even at 125 this year. The early-season chaos happened, so I understand the viewpoint but I think it has jaded our view of the contenders. 

Beating DeAugustino, Spratley, Kaylor and Davis doesn't make the guy a title contender. It makes him a low AA threat where he'll have to beat someone like Volk, who has beaten Smith twice this year. If Smith had beaten Richie Figs, Ayala, Barnett, or McKee didn't tech him, I could see the rationale a bit more. If you want to say 20 guys have a shot to AA, I'll buy that, but they aren't all title contenders.

His early-season, sudden-victory win against Ramos is noteworthy and we can't take that away from him, but the subsequent results from both guys suggest that was an aberration. 

As it always does, it will work itself out because they have to step on the mat. I've been wrong before and if Smith wins the title, I'll be wrong again. 

We can revisit after the B1Gs and see if opinions have changed. 

 

 

[1032004]

  On 2/29/2024 at 5:40 PM, TylerDurden said:

 

 

I see these as explanations about why he could win any one match - which I don't necessarily disagree with - not why he could win five in a row at the NCAA tournament from a double-digit seed.

I don't really buy the idea that 20 guys have a shot to win the title, even at 125 this year. The early-season chaos happened, so I understand the viewpoint but I think it has jaded our view of the contenders. 

Beating DeAugustino, Spratley, Kaylor and Davis doesn't make the guy a title contender. It makes him a low AA threat where he'll have to beat someone like Volk, who has beaten Smith twice this year. If Smith had beaten Richie Figs, Ayala, Barnett, or McKee didn't tech him, I could see the rationale a bit more. If you want to say 20 guys have a shot to AA, I'll buy that, but they aren't all title contenders.

His early-season, sudden-victory win against Ramos is noteworthy and we can't take that away from him, but the subsequent results from both guys suggest that was an aberration. 

As it always does, it will work itself out because they have to step on the mat. I've been wrong before and if Smith wins the title, I'll be wrong again. 

We can revisit after the B1Gs and see if opinions have changed. 

 

 

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Who do you think are the title contenders?

[Gus]

  On 2/28/2024 at 8:26 PM, jajensen09 said:

I just don't think Psu has as deep of a lineup as they think they have 

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It must be there 12 combined losses as a team that makes you think that. Or maybe their 6 guys that are still undefeated. I want PSU to lose as bad as the next guy but we need to be realistic here. They are juggernauts. 

[1032004]

  On 2/29/2024 at 4:32 PM, Dogbone said:

You are being too harsh on him.  His losses were to Cardinale, who AA'd and had Ramos on the ropes in the quarters and former AA Deagustino.  

I think you need to look at this way.  Is anyone's ceiling above PSU's floor (not saying they will wrestle to their floor but the team race is such a non topic, its all we got).   Initially I didn't think so but now admit it is possible despite it being very unlikely. 

Similarly, about 20 guys can win 125 and someone is going to have to win 5 in a row so it is possible. 

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Are you assuming PSU’s floor is a lineup that does not include Starocci?

[Dogbone]

  On 2/29/2024 at 6:07 PM, 1032004 said:

Are you assuming PSU’s floor is a lineup that does not include Starocci?

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I think he goes and still wins it but if making up a hypothetical PSU floor then, yes, that would be my assumption to create a floor.   

[Dogbone]

  On 2/29/2024 at 5:40 PM, TylerDurden said:

 

 

I see these as explanations about why he could win any one match - which I don't necessarily disagree with - not why he could win five in a row at the NCAA tournament from a double-digit seed.

I don't really buy the idea that 20 guys have a shot to win the title, even at 125 this year. The early-season chaos happened, so I understand the viewpoint but I think it has jaded our view of the contenders. 

Beating DeAugustino, Spratley, Kaylor and Davis doesn't make the guy a title contender. It makes him a low AA threat where he'll have to beat someone like Volk, who has beaten Smith twice this year. If Smith had beaten Richie Figs, Ayala, Barnett, or McKee didn't tech him, I could see the rationale a bit more. If you want to say 20 guys have a shot to AA, I'll buy that, but they aren't all title contenders.

His early-season, sudden-victory win against Ramos is noteworthy and we can't take that away from him, but the subsequent results from both guys suggest that was an aberration. 

As it always does, it will work itself out because they have to step on the mat. I've been wrong before and if Smith wins the title, I'll be wrong again. 

We can revisit after the B1Gs and see if opinions have changed. 

 

 

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I get your point but who outside of maybe Ramos, who has shown he can drop an unexpected match, has shown a history of winning 5 straight matches?

The way I look at 125 it is has a lot of parity and it is probably match-up dependent. You don't have to beat all 33, just the 5 that you hit in the tourney.    For example, Smith may not be able to beat Volk but he might be able to beat a guy who can beat Volk.