Could Ohio state be the dark horse

[steamboat_charlie]

7 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Lol well you must not follow much.  Nebraska has a ton of talent. When they peak will tell the story 

You caught me.  I'm new to the game.  Didn't realize Nebraska was D1.  

[Wrestleknownothing]

8 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

To say Smith has 1% chance at 125 is wild. Hardy at 4% is way low. Robb 1.5% is way low. The rest I can agree with

That is not my opinion. That is the history of guys who are seeded where they are ranked. 

[Le duke]

The problem Nebraska has is that every loss they take compounds itself with B1G and NCAA tournament seeds. And they’ve taken a lot of them.

Every seed number they drop is another harder match in R16, QF, SF.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jajensen09]

16 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

That is not my opinion. That is the history of guys who are seeded where they are ranked. 

Well 125 is a heck of alot different than "history" may say this year

[jajensen09]

12 minutes ago, Le duke said:

The problem Nebraska has is that every loss they take compounds itself with B1G and NCAA tournament seeds. And they’ve taken a lot of them.

Every seed number they drop is another harder match in R16, QF, SF.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I agree. These next 2 duals will determine alot for the huskers with Michigan and Penn state. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, jajensen09 said:

Well 125 is a heck of alot different than "history" may say this year

It's not "history", it is history. Everyone wants to think things are different this time. Vegas makes a living off that belief.

Just because there is no clear #1 at 125 does not mean everyone's odds are equal.

[jajensen09]

21 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

It's not "history", it is history. Everyone wants to think things are different this time. Vegas makes a living off that belief.

Just because there is no clear #1 at 125 does not mean everyone's odds are equal.

There is no clear cut #1. Heck there isn't a clear cut top 5. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

31 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

There is no clear cut #1. Heck there isn't a clear cut top 5. 

OK, play that out. If everyone has an equal chance then that is 0.5^5 or 3.1%. If it is like history, it is 1.1%. So what are you looking for, 2%?

[jajensen09]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

OK, play that out. If everyone has an equal chance then that is 0.5^5 or 3.1%. If it is like history, it is 1.1%. So what are you looking for, 2%?

So you are saying Smith would have had a better shot last year? Simply not true, Lee and Glory were heavy favorites. There are 0 heavy favorites in this field 

[Wrestleknownothing]

8 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

So you are saying Smith would have had a better shot last year? Simply not true, Lee and Glory were heavy favorites. There are 0 heavy favorites in this field 

Not saying that at all, and I am a lot confused how you came to that conclusion from what I said.

I gave you two scenarios. The normal scenario, 1.1%, and the extreme scenario where everyone is equal, 3.1% (which, by the way, should have been 6.2% because you said make the finals and 3.1% is for winning the finals).

So let's do this the other way around. What do you think Smith's probability is for making the final?

[jajensen09]

33 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Not saying that at all, and I am a lot confused how you came to that conclusion from what I said.

I gave you two scenarios. The normal scenario, 1.1%, and the extreme scenario where everyone is equal, 3.1% (which, by the way, should have been 6.2% because you said make the finals and 3.1% is for winning the finals).

So let's do this the other way around. What do you think Smith's probability is for making the final?

There are soo many factors that go into this besides just history. Peaking at the right time, illnesses, bracket draws, etc come into play. I'd give him a 15 percent chance or so

[Wrestleknownothing]

9 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

There are soo many factors that go into this besides just history. Peaking at the right time, illnesses, bracket draws, etc come into play. I'd give him a 15 percent chance or so

Hmmm. He is ranked 13th with 5 loses on the season. He is 3-4 in his last seven, so it is not like he lost early and has momentum now.

If he is at 15% then the 12 guys above him, with fewer loses by the way and 5 victories to no loses against him, also have to be at 15% or more. So among those 13 they have at least 195% chance of making the final?

[jajensen09]

8 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Hmmm. He is ranked 13th with 5 loses on the season. He is 3-4 in his last seven, so it is not like he lost early and has momentum now.

If he is at 15% then the 12 guys above him, with fewer loses by the way and 5 victories to no loses against him, also have to be at 15% or more. So among those 13 they have at least 195% chance of making the final?

You realize this is not how vegas makes lines as you were saying. Smith would be around 12/1 odds to make the finals if Vegas did wrestling lines like this

[Wrestleknownothing]

2 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

You realize this is not how vegas makes lines as you were saying. Smith would be around 12/1 odds to make the finals if Vegas did wrestling lines like this

Dude, that is because Vegas under pays true odds. You know, because of that profit thing.

By the way, 12/1 is still half of what you think the odds are.

At 15% you would be happy to accept 13/2 odds, foolish to accept them, but happy.

[jajensen09]

8 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Dude, that is because Vegas under pays true odds. You know, because of that profit thing.

By the way, 12/1 is still half of what you think the odds are.

At 15% you would be happy to accept 13/2 odds, foolish to accept them, but happy.

To my point. Vegas would not have him at "1 percent".  10/1-15/1 range. Or +1000/+1500 range

[Wrestleknownothing]

33 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

To my point. Vegas would not have him at "1 percent".  10/1-15/1 range. Or +1000/+1500 range

 

43 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Dude, that is because Vegas under pays true odds. You know, because of that profit thing.

By the way, 12/1 is still half of what you think the odds are.

At 15% you would be happy to accept 13/2 odds, foolish to accept them, but happy.

 

[jajensen09]

54 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

 

 

Ok. I'll bet on your 1% chance. Put the $$ where your mouth is

Edited February 8 by jajensen09

[Wrestleknownothing]

4 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

Ok. I'll bet on your 1% chance. Put the $$ where your mouth is

Sooooooo dumb. You asked me what the chances were. I told you. You did not ask for a betting line. You want a betting line, dumb dumb, fine. I will give you 1/10. For every $10 you bet I will pay you $1 if you win.

If serves me right for answering your question when I knew it would result in a very stupid exchange because you just do not get it. You do this every year.

[1032004]

6 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

OK, play that out. If everyone has an equal chance then that is 0.5^5 or 3.1%. If it is like history, it is 1.1%. So what are you looking for, 2%?

What do you mean “everyone”?   IMO there are about 20 guys that all have a reasonably similar chance to make the finals, and then I’ll give a 2% chance to the remainder of the field.

So if my math is right here (maybe not):

2/20 = 10% x 98% = 9.8%

Also what do you mean by “history”?  You were comparing his current rank to NCAA seeds correct?  His rank can change dramatically between now and NCAA’s (up or down).

Edited February 9 by 1032004

[jajensen09]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Sooooooo dumb. You asked me what the chances were. I told you. You did not ask for a betting line. You want a betting line, dumb dumb, fine. I will give you 1/10. For every $10 you bet I will pay you $1 if you win.

If serves me right for answering your question when I knew it would result in a very stupid exchange because you just do not get it. You do this every year.

You just don't understand odds. It's alright 

[jajensen09]

8 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

What do you mean “everyone”?   IMO there are about 20 guys that all have a reasonably similar chance to make the finals, and then I’ll give a 2% chance to the remainder of the field.

So if my math is right here (maybe not):

2/20 = 10% x 98% = 9.8%

Also what do you mean by “history”?  You were comparing his current rank to NCAA seeds correct?  His rank can change dramatically between now and NCAA’s (up or down).

By history I was referring to no heavy favorite, as previous years. Which makes it more likely for him to be a finalist

[Wrestleknownothing]

6 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

What do you mean “everyone”?   IMO there are about 20 guys that all have a reasonably similar chance to make the finals, and then I’ll give a 2% chance to the remainder of the field.

So if my math is right here:

1/20 = 5% x 98% = 4.9%

Also what do you mean by “history”?  You were comparing his current rank to NCAA seeds correct?  His rank can change dramatically between now and NCAA’s (up or down).

Not exactly. If he has an equal chance against any of 19 other guys and is a big favorite against the other 13 and he is the 13 seed (his current rank) then he hits only the other guys with an equal chance. So his odds of winning are still 0.5^5 = 3.1% and his odds of making the final are still 0.5^4 = 6.2%.

Since I only have his current rank, yes, I am using that. If his rank/seed improves it stands to reason that so will his probability. At a minimum, in your scenario he gets one near sure thing win. But even if history repeats itself, higher seeds do have better results. 

I will do a busted seed calculation when this is all over to see how 2024 125 compares to 174 in 2016 which is the most busted bracket I have found.

[Wrestleknownothing]

5 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

You just don't understand odds. It's alright 

Oh, I understand them all too well.

When Vegas quotes you 12/1 they are not saying it is an outcome that will occur once every 12 times, but they sure are hoping you are dumb enough to think that. The real odds are significantly longer than anything you will get quoted. But you keep betting those odds. I am sure you will bankrupt that casino any day now.

[1032004]

11 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Not exactly. If he has an equal chance against any of 19 other guys and is a big favorite against the other 13 and he is the 13 seed (his current rank) then he hits only the other guys with an equal chance. So his odds of winning are still 0.5^5 = 3.1% and his odds of making the final are still 0.5^4 = 6.2%.

Since I only have his current rank, yes, I am using that. If his rank/seed improves it stands to reason that so will his probability. At a minimum, in your scenario he gets one near sure thing win. But even if history repeats itself, higher seeds do have better results. 

I will do a busted seed calculation when this is all over to see how 2024 125 compares to 174 in 2016 which is the most busted bracket I have found.

Ah I gotcha.  So you’re saying he has a 50% chance to win each match, so to win 4 in a row is 6.2%?  Sorry I edited mine above to double it but not that far off.  Overall I’d agree with @jajensen09’s comment of saying he only has a 1.1% chance to make the finals is “crazy.”   1.1% and 6.2% is a pretty significant difference.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the actual 125 bracket be chalk.  The issue is that the margins are so close no one knows what those seeds will be.

Edited February 9 by 1032004

[jajensen09]

On 2/8/2024 at 9:16 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

That is not my opinion. That is the history of guys who are seeded where they are ranked. 

1%........