It's time: Predict the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ

[Rassling]

7 minutes ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

There are plenty of non D1 kids and programs that churn out talent. Shawn Streck for example would be a top heavy in D1. 

I’d like to see a few knowledgeable guys from D3 frequent this forum to share some of the stand-outs in their world. 

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

11 minutes ago, Rassling said:

I’d like to see a few knowledgeable guys from D3 frequent this forum to share some of the stand-outs in their world. 

I’ve actually thought is starting a thread to see if anyone follows the other divisions, even if just at a high level. 
 

There are clearly levels particularly with only 80 D1/Transitioning programs, but some kids come alive in college and a good D2 program could develop. 

[Rassling]

2 minutes ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

I’ve actually thought is starting a thread to see if anyone follows the other divisions, even if just at a high level. 
 

There are clearly levels particularly with only 80 D1/Transitioning programs, but some kids come alive in college and a good D2 program could develop. 

That would be a great Fan - seeing some videos of their studs would be great. Go ahead start a thread some day and let’s see if it attracts some new blood. 

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

Just now, Rassling said:

That would be a great Fan - seeing some videos of their studs would be great. Go ahead start a thread some day and let’s see if it attracts some new blood. 

Another Non-D1 guy that was suppose to be a college D1 stud was Blake Rypel, NAIA 7th after being a 2 time indiana state champ and indiana wrestler of the year. Started at IU and finished at LifeU. 
 

plenty of drop downs as well as hidden gems. Shit I was D1 and lost to D2,D3, Naia and even a club kid- I was a career backup but there is talent there and I will always be a supporter of non-D1 wrestling even if I’m not the most knowledgeable or biggest fan/follower.

 

they all still do the sport we love(ed) and have their own goals and aspiration inside and outside of sport.

[Rassling]

8 minutes ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

Another Non-D1 guy that was suppose to be a college D1 stud was Blake Rypel, NAIA 7th after being a 2 time indiana state champ and indiana wrestler of the year. Started at IU and finished at LifeU. 
 

plenty of drop downs as well as hidden gems. Shit I was D1 and lost to D2,D3, Naia and even a club kid- I was a career backup but there is talent there and I will always be a supporter of non-D1 wrestling even if I’m not the most knowledgeable or biggest fan/follower.

 

they all still do the sport we love(ed) and have their own goals and aspiration inside and outside of sport.

FanofPurdueWrestling <—now heres a PASSIONATE man about the worlds greatest sport! Perhaps Shane Sparks could get you a position with Big10! You have my vote!

Edited February 18 by Rassling

[1032004]

4 hours ago, jmoney said:

Barnett and McKee just haven’t wrestled well in tough matches this season. They do have some nice peak wins I gave them credit for. 

Sorry, your rating system doesn’t make any sense if McKee and Barnett are so far behind Flynn, who has a similar resume to them and only has 2 wins over other guys on your list.  

[jmoney]

9 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Sorry, your rating system doesn’t make any sense if McKee and Barnett are so far behind Flynn, who has a similar resume to them and only has 2 wins over other guys on your list.  

Flynn has defeated Surtin, Provo, Ungar, Sotelo, Moore and lost to Barnett by 1 and Stanich by 2

Barnett has defeated Flynn, Smith, McCrone, Hendricsen and lost to Terukina, Stanich, Ramos and McKee. It's not apples to apples but I'll take Flynn's resume.

[JimmyBT]

Nobody will win it. They’re all going to take 4th 

[1032004]

2 hours ago, jmoney said:

Flynn has defeated Surtin, Provo, Ungar, Sotelo, Moore and lost to Barnett by 1 and Stanich by 2

Barnett has defeated Flynn, Smith, McCrone, Hendricsen and lost to Terukina, Stanich, Ramos and McKee. It's not apples to apples but I'll take Flynn's resume.

Flynn may deserve to be a couple spots higher, but not 2 tiers and over 100 points or whatever.

If you’re counting Ungar, Sotelo and Moore as quality wins for Flynn then you should probably give Barnett some credit for beating a slew of mid tier guys like Blake West (tech), Tyler Klinsky (major), Dom Mendez (tech), and Tristan Lujan

[jmoney]

On 2/17/2024 at 12:07 PM, jmoney said:

I created my own rankings using these metrics today. I am curious to see how well this predicts All Americans.

30% weight on GRIT (performance in top level matches)

20% weight on Best Win Quality against ranked guys

15% weight on Recent Performances last month

13% weight on Hammer rating (how much you destroy opposition measured taking into account strength of your opposition)

12% weight on Consistency (how your win% pairs up with your strength of schedule)

10% weight on Strength of Schedule

 

This gives me 3 tiers of guys

A TIER

1 Ramos 387, 2 Ayala 385, 3 Spratley 357, 4 Stanich 345

B TIER

5 Flynn 311, 6 Davis 297, 7 Smith 285

C TIER

8 DeAugustino 267, 9 Poulin 260, 10 Provo252, 11(TIE)  Jordan/Surtin 250, 13 Kaylor 244, 14 Noto 242, 15 Volk 240

D TIER

16 McKee 206, 17 Barnett 202, 18 Camacho 195

New top 10

1 Ramos

2 Ayala

3 Spratley

4 Stanich

5 Smith

6 Flynn

7 Kaylor

8 Surtin

9 DeAugustino

10 Davis

[flyingcement]

14 hours ago, lu_alum said:

That explains why you've dropped Stanich so much for the loss to Jax Forrest.

I just want to circle back to this comment to give a more thorough explanation.  The loss to Forrest counts against him for sure, but more than that- is the lack of matches against D1 starters (which seems to have been by design to preserve his redshirt).  But it just means he has had fewer opportunities to face top rated d1 starters than many of his untethered peers

[ionel]

1 hour ago, jmoney said:

New top 10

1 Ramos

2 Ayala

3 Spratley

4 Stanich

5 Smith

6 Flynn

7 Kaylor

8 Surtin

9 DeAugustino

10 Davis

DeAugustino should not be allowed in the top 10 until he shaves, he got beat by a 13 yr old for Pete's sake.  

[CHROMEBIRD]

Will the 13-year old will AA at this point? Looks like we're seeing him regress to his mean, not just with the losses but with the WBQCs (wins by questionable calls) also. He's a good wrestler and has good mat awareness but doesn't have the firepower as a TF. Smith just horsed him around yesterday with good old fashioned grown man strength.

[1032004]

25 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Will the 13-year old will AA at this point? Looks like we're seeing him regress to his mean, not just with the losses but with the WBQCs (wins by questionable calls) also. He's a good wrestler and has good mat awareness but doesn't have the firepower as a TF. Smith just horsed him around yesterday with good old fashioned grown man strength.

Wasn’t that a 1-1 match until there was about a minute left?  Davis certainly fits in with the rest of 125.  He can win it all, he can also go 0-2.

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

On 2/18/2024 at 2:52 PM, Rassling said:

FanofPurdueWrestling <—now heres a PASSIONATE man about the worlds greatest sport! Perhaps Shane Sparks could get you a position with Big10! You have my vote!

Unfortunatly my public speaking is much lower than my forum speak.

 

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

Friendly reminder Purdue is getting their first natty champ in 50+ years this year.

 

where will you be when Matty Ice hits back flips and jumps in Ersland’s arms.

[jmoney]

Possible meetings before conference

2/23

Flynn v Camacho

2/25

Ayala v Spratley

Surtin v Terukina

 

[BloodRound]

McKee will put on an utter display of dominance, the likes of which we have never seen before, resulting in an incredible 3rd place finish.

[flyingcement]

FC Rank	Wrestler	School	Conference	InterMat	FloSports	WIN	WrestleStat	Coach	RPI	Net Rank
1	Eric Barnett	Wisconsin	Big Ten	6	4	11	4	3	12	4
2	Matt Ramos	Purdue	Big Ten	1	1	1	1	1	2	1
3	Troy Spratley	Oklahoma State	Big 12	12	8	5	7	9	8	7
4	Jore Volk	Wyoming	Big 12	11	15	15	16	11	9	13
5	Caleb Smith	Nebraska	Big Ten	7	5	7	6	10	7	5
6	Noah Surtin	Missouri	Big 12	10	9	6	9	7	5	6
7	Drake Ayala	Iowa	Big Ten	4	3	2	8	4	3	2
8	Nico Provo	Stanford	PAC 12	18	20	16	21	16	16	19
9	Cooper Flynn	Virginia Tech	ACC	3	7	3	11	5	4	3
10	Brett Ungar	Cornell	EIWA	15	17	19	20	15	13	16
11	Tanner Jordan	South Dakota State	Big 12	19	14	13	25	14	15	17
12	Michael DeAugustino	Northwestern	Big Ten	16	11	12	12	13	6	12
13	Brendan McCrone	Ohio State	Big Ten	22	18	51	17	19	37	23
14	Braeden Davis	Penn State	Big Ten	8	6	9	15	6	10	8
15	Patrick McKee	Minnesota	Big Ten	5	10	10	2	12	18	9
16	Luke Stanich	Lehigh	EIWA	2	2	51	3	2	1	10
17	Jakob Camacho	North Carolina State	ACC	14	16	17	13	23	20	18
18	Anthony Molton	Campbell	SoCon	23	29	51	14	20	22	22
19	Brandon Kaylor	Oregon State	PAC 12	17	12	14	18	17	11	15
20	Anthony Noto	Lock Haven	MAC	13	21	8	5	18	21	14
21	Stevo Poulin	Northern Colorado	Big 12	9	13	4	10	8	19	11
22	Jack Maida	American	EIWA	28	30	51	26	28	17	26
23	Trever Anderson	Northern Iowa	Big 12	26	23	51	19	25	35	25
24	Dean Peterson	Rutgers	Big Ten	20	19	18	24	21	33	20
25	Jett Strickenberger	West Virginia	Big 12	57	22	51	28	31	24	32
26	Blake West	Northern Illinois	MAC	33	57	51	37	32	30	34
27	Ethan Berginc	Army	EIWA	31	33	51	29	30	23	28
28	Kysen Terukina	Iowa State	Big 12	27	24	51	31	26	28	27
29	Drew West	Gardner-Webb	SoCon	57	57	51	43	57	47	45
30	Dominic Mendez	Cal Poly	PAC 12	30	31	51	38	57	33	33
31	Spencer Moore	North Carolina	ACC	29	27	51	36	33	27	29
32	Diego Sotelo	Harvard	EIWA	21	26	51	22	22	14	21
33	Brayden Palmer	Chattanooga	SoCon	25	57	51	23	29	26	31
34	Sean Spidle	Central Michigan	MAC	57	57	51	41	57	38	42
35	Eli Griffin	California Baptist	Big 12	32	32	51	35	24	31	30
36	Jeremiah Reno	Little Rock	PAC 12	57	57	51	39	57	49	44
37	Conrad Hendriksen	Oklahoma	Big 12	57	57	51	40	57	29	36
38	Max Gallagher	Pennsylvania	EIWA	57	57	51	27	57	25	35
39	Nick Babin	Columbia	EIWA	57	57	51	33	57	36	37
40	Justin Cardani	Illinois	Big Ten	57	57	51	52	57	46	51
41	Tucker Owens	Air Force	Big 12	57	57	51	48	57	43	47
42	Kyle Montaperto	Virginia	ACC	57	57	51	53	57	54	54
43	Jake Ice	Sacred Heart	EIWA	57	57	51	60	57	65	62
44	Tristan Lujan	Michigan State	Big Ten	57	57	51	44	57	32	40
45	Chad Bellis	Appalachian State	SoCon	57	57	51	34	57	42	41
46	Kade Davidheiser	Bucknell	EIWA	57	57	51	77	57	77	78
47	Richie Figueroa	Arizona State	PAC 12	24	25	20	30	27	39	24
48	Ryan Henningson	North Dakota State	Big 12	57	57	51	65	57	64	64
49	Yusief Lillie	Utah Valley	Big 12	57	57	51	67	57	59	63
50	Joey Fischer	Clarion	MAC	57	57	51	42	57	53	48
51	Tyler Klinsky	Rider	MAC	57	57	51	32	57	40	39
52	Michael Joyce	Brown	EIWA	57	57	51	55	57	58	56
53	Richard Castro-Sandoval	Cal State Bakersfield	PAC 12	57	57	51	46	57	45	46
54	Benjamin Aranda	Cleveland State	MAC	57	57	51	57	57	51	55
55	Drew Heethuis	Princeton	EIWA	57	57	51	49	57	48	49
56	Colton Camacho	Pittsburgh	ACC	57	29	51	47	57	51	38
57	Davian Guanajuato	Southern Illinois Edwardsville	MAC	57	57	51	58	57	57	57
58	Desmond Pleasant	Drexel	EIWA	57	57	51	51	57	50	52
59	Tommy Capul	Maryland	Big Ten	57	57	51	76	57	62	67
60	Massey Odiotti	Northwestern	Big Ten	57	57	51	62	57	56	58
61	Damion Ryan	Bellarmine	MAC	57	57	51	71	57	68	68
62	Trenton Dominguez	Presbyterian	SoCon	57	57	51	75	57	74	77
63	Logan Agin	Duke	ACC	57	57	51	50	57	55	53
64	JB Dragovich	George Mason	MAC	57	57	51	68	57	76	71
65	Robbie Sagaris	Long Island	EIWA	57	57	51	56	57	63	59
66	Blaine Frazier	Indiana	Big Ten	57	57	51	45	57	41	43
67	Carson Wagner	Binghamton	EIWA	57	57	51	54	57	44	50
68	Dylan Acevedo-Switzer	Hofstra	EIWA	57	57	51	64	57	72	66
69	Malik Hardy	Citadel	SoCon	57	57	51	59	57	61	60
70	Dayton DelViscio	Navy	EIWA	57	57	51	66	57	66	65
71	Eric Howe	Franklin & Marshall	EIWA	57	57	51	72	57	73	73
72	Max Elton	Buffalo	MAC	57	57	51	61	57	60	61
73	Enis Ljikovic	Davidson	SoCon	57	57	51	79	57	81	80
74	Caleb Edwards	Edinboro	MAC	57	57	51	73	57	75	76
75	Bronson Garber	Bloomsburg	MAC	57	57	51	69	57	70	70
76	Ryan Meek	Ohio	MAC	57	57	51	74	57	71	72
77	Adan Benavidez	Kent State	MAC	57	57	51	70	57	69	69
78	Julian Dawson	Morgan State	EIWA	57	57	51	68	57	78	74
79	Austin Kegley	Lindenwood	MAC	57	57	51	80	57	67	75
80	Tony Burke	VMI	SoCon	57	57	51	78	57	79	79
81	Daniel Graham	Queens	SoCon	57	57	51	81	57	80	81

[flyingcement]

@Southend - any idea as to who will man 125 for the Hoosiers going forward?  Wrestlestat just switched the designated starter from Blaine Frazier to Michael Spangler.  That may prove to be wise, but wasn't sure what prompted them to change it

[Southend]

Spangler has been starter and got dinged. Must be something minor. Frazier is  freshman ,but what was available. Moran (sr.) took Olympic shirt. 

Edited February 21 by Southend
More info

[jmoney]

Flynn moves from  6 to 9, DeAug back into top 8, Camacho surges past Noto from 18 to 13 into the very crowded 7 to 16 ranked pack. Spratley v Ayala could shake up the top 5.

1 Ramos 387

2 Ayala 385

3 Spratley 357

4 Stanich 345

5 Smith 330

6 Kaylor 298

7 Surtin 270

8 DeAug 267

9 Flynn 266

10 Davis 265

11 Poulin 260

12 Jordan 253

13 Camacho 245

14 Noto 242

15 Volk 240

16 (tie) Barnett / Provo 232

18 McKee 206

[jmoney]

On 2/20/2024 at 7:26 AM, BloodRound said:

McKee will put on an utter display of dominance, the likes of which we have never seen before, resulting in an incredible 3rd place finish.

We all know this is happening. Backside monster!

[1032004]

1 hour ago, jmoney said:

Flynn moves from  6 to 9, DeAug back into top 8, Camacho surges past Noto from 18 to 13 into the very crowded 7 to 16 ranked pack. Spratley v Ayala could shake up the top 5.

1 Ramos 387

2 Ayala 385

3 Spratley 357

4 Stanich 345

5 Smith 330

6 Kaylor 298

7 Surtin 270

8 DeAug 267

9 Flynn 266

10 Davis 265

11 Poulin 260

12 Jordan 253

13 Camacho 245

14 Noto 242

15 Volk 240

16 (tie) Barnett / Provo 232

18 McKee 206

Kaylor seems too high for a guy with 6 losses.  Sorry I don’t like your algorithm lol

Edited February 24 by 1032004

[jmoney]

6 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Kaylor seems too high for a guy with 6 losses.  Sorry I don’t like your algorithm lol

McKee and Kaylor opponents- McKee might have 9 losses if he wrestled Kaylor's schedule. Kaylor's star is brightening. Ramos, Smith, Ayala, and Spratley and maybe Volk have harder schedules than Kaylor. They ahve 15 losses combined and guess what, they're better than your boys Barnett and McKee based on this season's body of work. I don't doubt McKee and Barnett make it competitive at Big 10s and Nationals but this represents their body of work.  Feel free to tell me how much better than Kaylor McKee is, though, I'm all ears.

McKee        Kaylor

Ramos L 

Ayala L        Ayala W

Ayala L

                    Spratley W

Smith W       Smith   L

                      Davis L

Barnett W   

Jordan  L      Jordan W   

                      Volk  W

                      Provo W

                      Ungar L

Peterson L  Strickenberger L

                       Moore L

                        Mendez W

                        Mendez W

                        Reno  L