It's time: Predict the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ

[jmoney]

7 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Hmm, let me think about it lol.  How much $ we talking?

We can keep it friendly! $5 for $25 or $10 for $50.

[jmoney]

8 hours ago, JBluegill133 said:

National finals preview tonight Ayala vs Ramos.  Would love to see Ayala at the top of the heap when the 125lbs dust settles in March.

Let's see if Ramos brings the mental toughness. Ayala is mentally much stronger but I think Ramos's peak ability is superior.

[BIGTENFANBOY]

Once again the number 1 ranked wrestler loses immediately after being ranked number 1

[1032004]

6 hours ago, jmoney said:

We can keep it friendly! $5 for $25 or $10 for $50.

Sure, put me down for $10 lol

[flyingcement]

Rank	Wrestler
18	Luke Stanich
13	Drake Ayala
13	Matt Ramos
12	Jore Volk
10	Troy Spratley
9	Braeden Davis
6	Brett Ungar
6	Cooper Flynn
5	Nico Provo
4	Kysen Terukina
4	Noah Surtin
3	Eric Barnett
3	Jett Strickenberger
1	Caleb Smith
0	Brayden Palmer
0	Michael DeAugustino
0	Tanner Jordan
-2	Jack Maida
-2	Tyler Klinsky
-3	Anthony Noto
-3	Dean Peterson
-3	Eli Griffin
-3	Richie Figueroa
-3	Stevo Poulin
-4	Anthony Molton
-4	Patrick McKee
-4	Spencer Moore
-5	Brandon Kaylor
-6	Brendan McCrone
-6	Colton Camacho
-12	Jakob Camacho
-15	Diego Sotelo
-16	Trever Anderson
-16	Tristan Lujan

[flyingcement]

 

[jmoney]

On 1/19/2024 at 7:51 PM, 1032004 said:

Sure, put me down for $10 lol

Deal! 

[1032004]

Flo goes Stanich, Ramos, Davis as 1, 2 and 3 in latest rankings. Don’t believe Intermat has updated yet

[Wrestleknownothing]

5 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Flo goes Stanich, Ramos, Davis as 1, 2 and 3 in latest rankings. Don’t believe Intermat has updated yet

Updated about an hour ago. Ramos, Stanich, Barnett, Davis

[Wrestleknownothing]

Some big differences between Intermat's and Flo's 125 rankings this deep into the season.

The biggest difference is Brandon Kaylor. Flo has him at 5, Intermat at 15. 

That big diff is probably caused by their second biggest diff. Flo has Troy Spratley at 11 while Intermat has him at 20.

With Kaylor's pinfelling Spratley Sunday, Spratley's rank seems to be the pivot point for Kaylor.

[ionel]

11 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Some big differences between Intermat's and Flo's 125 rankings this deep into the season.

The biggest difference is Brandon Kaylor. Flo has him at 5, Intermat at 15. 

That big diff is probably caused by their second biggest diff. Flo has Troy Spratley at 11 while Intermat has him at 20.

With Kaylor's pinfelling Spratley Sunday, Spratley's rank seems to be the pivot point for Kaylor.

Maybe IM ranked him when it was still a 1 pt match and Flo after the fell. 

[1032004]

32 minutes ago, ionel said:

Maybe IM ranked him when it was still a 1 pt match and Flo after the fell. 

Spratpinned

[flyingcement]

I got carried away with my 125 data gathering.  If anyone cares to understand, I can walk through the methodology.  Basically I take an average of four rankings (Intermat, Flo, WIN, and WrestleStat) to establish an original order of perceived rankings.  I then award points for match outcomes against all other 125 lbers, but the points awarded are higher if you defeat a high ranked media guy - and largely negative if you lose to an unranked media guy.  I then input by hand the results of every match at 125 this year among the top 55 wrestlers so far (will do the full 80 eventually).

	Wrestler
1	Eric Barnett
2	Jore Volk
3	Nico Provo
4	Matt Ramos
5	Noah Surtin
6	Drake Ayala
7	Caleb Smith
8	Cooper Flynn
9	Troy Spratley
10	Tanner Jordan
11	Brett Ungar
12	Michael DeAugustino
13	Braeden Davis
14	Anthony Noto
15	Dean Peterson
16	Jett Strickenberger
17	Jack Maida
18	Patrick McKee
19	Ethan Berginc
20	Luke Stanich
21	Brandon Kaylor
22	Jakob Camacho
23	Stevo Poulin
24	Spencer Moore
25	Brendan McCrone
26	Anthony Molton
27	Brayden Palmer
28	Richie Figueroa
29	Kysen Terukina
30	Blake West
31	Carlos Negrete
32	Conrad Hendriksen
33	Drew West
34	Trever Anderson
35	Dominic Mendez
36	Diego Sotelo
37	Tristan Lujan
38	Jeremiah Reno
39	Max Gallagher
40	Sean Spidle
41	Justin Cardani
42	Eli Griffin
43	Tucker Owens
44	Kyle Montaperto
45	Nick Babin
46	Blaine Frazier
47	Drew Heethuis
48	Chad Bellis
49	Tyler Klinsky
50	Colton Camacho
51	Richard Castro-Sandoval
52	Joey Fischer
53	Logan Agin
54	Desmond Pleasant
55	Carson Wagner

 

[flyingcement]

Rank	Wrestler
1	Eric Barnett
2	Jore Volk
3	Nico Provo
4	Matt Ramos
5	Noah Surtin
6	Drake Ayala
7	Tanner Jordan
8	Caleb Smith
9	Cooper Flynn
10	Troy Spratley
11	Braeden Davis
12	Luke Stanich
13	Michael DeAugustino
14	Brett Ungar
15	Anthony Noto
16	Jack Maida
17	Dean Peterson
18	Jett Strickenberger
19	Stevo Poulin
20	Ethan Berginc
21	Patrick McKee
22	Blake West
23	Drew West
24	Brendan McCrone
25	Brandon Kaylor
26	Kysen Terukina
27	Brayden Palmer
28	Anthony Molton
29	Jakob Camacho
30	Spencer Moore
31	Jared Brunner
32	Trever Anderson
33	Carlos Negrete
34	Diego Sotelo
35	Conrad Hendriksen
36	Jeremiah Reno
37	Tristan Lujan
38	Dominic Mendez
39	Eli Griffin
40	Max Gallagher
41	Kyle Montaperto
42	Richie Figueroa
43	Justin Cardani
44	Sean Spidle
45	Jake Ice
46	Tucker Owens
47	Nick Babin
48	Yusief Lillie
49	Joey Fischer
50	Chad Bellis
51	Davian Guanajuato
52	Benjamin Aranda
53	Drew Heethuis
54	Tyler Klinsky
55	Colton Camacho
56	Richard Castro-Sandoval
57	Tommy Capul
58	Damion Ryan
59	Austin Kegley
60	Blaine Frazier
61	Dylan Acevedo-Switzer
62	Desmond Pleasant
63	Daniel Graham
64	JB Dragovich
65	Trenton Dominguez
66	Kevin Lopez
67	Robbie Sagaris
68	Logan Agin
69	Massey Odiotti
70	Malik Hardy
71	Dayton DelViscio
72	Carson Wagner
73	Eric Howe
74	Owen Bell
75	Enis Ljikovic
76	Max Elton
77	Bronson Garber
78	Caleb Edwards
79	Tony Burke
80	Ryan Meek
81	Adan Benavidez

[flyingcement]

If we ignore matches against backups, redshirts, and wrestlers from other divisions, the ratings change as follows:

Net Rank	Wrestler
1	Eric Barnett
2	Matt Ramos
3	Jore Volk
4	Nico Provo
5	Noah Surtin
6	Drake Ayala
7	Tanner Jordan
8	Caleb Smith
9	Luke Stanich
10	Cooper Flynn
11	Troy Spratley
12	Braeden Davis
13	Michael DeAugustino
14	Brett Ungar
15	Brandon Kaylor
16	Jett Strickenberger
17	Kysen Terukina
18	Ethan Berginc
19	Anthony Noto
20	Jack Maida
21	Blake West
22	Drew West
23	Dean Peterson
24	Stevo Poulin
25	Anthony Molton
26	Patrick McKee
27	Diego Sotelo
28	Tyler Klinsky
29	Brendan McCrone
30	Brayden Palmer
31	Dylan Acevedo-Switzer
32	Jakob Camacho
33	Eli Griffin
34	Spencer Moore
35	Conrad Hendriksen
36	Jeremiah Reno
37	Joey Fischer
38	Drew Heethuis
39	Tristan Lujan
40	Jared Brunner
41	Richie Figueroa
42	Jake Ice
43	Trever Anderson
44	Carlos Negrete
45	Max Gallagher
46	Colton Camacho
47	Dominic Mendez
48	Tucker Owens
49	Chad Bellis
50	Nick Babin
51	Benjamin Aranda
52	Kyle Montaperto
53	Justin Cardani
54	Damion Ryan
55	Sean Spidle
56	Kevin Lopez
57	Richard Castro-Sandoval
58	Dayton DelViscio
59	Massey Odiotti
60	Trenton Dominguez
61	Yusief Lillie
62	Owen Bell
63	Carson Wagner
64	Davian Guanajuato
65	Desmond Pleasant
66	JB Dragovich
67	Max Elton
68	Tommy Capul
69	Robbie Sagaris
70	Blaine Frazier
71	Eric Howe
72	Logan Agin
73	Malik Hardy
74	Enis Ljikovic
75	Ryan Meek
76	Caleb Edwards
77	Austin Kegley
78	Tony Burke
79	Daniel Graham
80	Bronson Garber
81	Adan Benavidez

[1032004]

Should we count last night as a loss for Davis for ranking purposes?

[flyingcement]

28 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Should we count last night as a loss for Davis for ranking purposes?

I considered it.  I'm still unsure

[1032004]

4 minutes ago, flyingcement said:

I considered it.  I'm still unsure

You did drop him by a spot

[flyingcement]

5 hours ago, 1032004 said:

You did drop him by a spot

In my mind - most certainly  . But for clarity sake, the two lists above were from before the dual and the difference between them was not a different point in time - but whether or not matches against non-D1 starters would be considered into the calculation 

[jmoney]

6 hours ago, flyingcement said:

I considered it.  I'm still unsure

Go for it. That was an L if I’ve ever seen one. And it wasn’t an off night that Killcleary guy killed it. 

[ionel]

6 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Should we count last night as a loss for Davis for ranking purposes?

Wasn't this kind've like an all star match.  We all saw it, we know it happened, we know he got taken down and lost but ... we are going to pretend it didn't 'officially' happen.  

[flyingcement]

1 minute ago, ionel said:

Wasn't this kind've like an all star match.  We all saw it, we know it happened, we know he got taken down and lost but ... we are going to pretend it didn't 'officially' happen.  

Since you mention it, I counted the All-Star match in my stats. 

 

[1032004]

Is Trombley now the starter for NC State?  He’s wrestled the first 2 of their ACC duals against Pitt and UNC

[flyingcement]

5 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Is Trombley now the starter for NC State?  He’s wrestled the first 2 of their ACC duals against Pitt and UNC

Same question I had.  Camacho has been hot and cold - perhaps due to injury?  The one he missed last year for perhaps?

Since I put together all these things by hand, Bucknell has just changed their starter from Owen Bell to Kade Davidheiser.  Back to work for me I guess.  I'm focusing my efforts this year on 125

Plus Jared Brunner to Michael Joyce for Brown

Edited February 4 by flyingcement

[flyingcement]

Couple of notes.  I completed a few data integrity exercises to make sure formulas were consistent throughout, etc.

I replaced Brunner with Brown and Bell with Davidheiser.  I have not yet replaced Camacho with Trombley, although I can see they have done that on WrestleStat, because I have not yet heard confirmation of anything wrong with Camacho (which is what I think it would take for that change to take place).  I'll keep an eye on that situation.

Otherwise I decided against giving Braeden Davis the loss for the sake of stats for a couple reasons.  First is that I'm sure there are other matches which were similarly questionable that I just didn't see or care enough to reverse.  Another point is that if these calls are to be expected for favorites like PSU, then we can't hide behind that.  We should show that in the stats.

 

FC Rank	Wrestler	School	InterMat	FloSports	WIN	Wrestlestat	Net Media Rank
1	Eric Barnett	Wisconsin	2	6	8	2	3
2	Jore Volk	Wyoming	8	8	7	10	8
3	Tanner Jordan	South Dakota State	17	20	16	26	21
4	Nico Provo	Stanford	18	19	15	21	18
5	Noah Surtin	Missouri	7	3	5	6	4
6	Troy Spratley	Oklahoma State	20	11	14	23	17
7	Matt Ramos	Purdue	1	1	1	1	1
8	Cooper Flynn	Virginia Tech	6	7	4	14	7
9	Drake Ayala	Iowa	5	4	3	5	2
10	Caleb Smith	Nebraska	15	9	12	18	12
11	Michael DeAugustino	Northwestern	12	15	10	9	9
12	Braeden Davis	Penn State	3	2	9	7	4
13	Brett Ungar	Cornell	16	18	17	22	18
14	Luke Stanich	Lehigh	4	5	51	4	16
15	Dean Peterson	Rutgers	13	16	20	11	15
16	Jack Maida	American	28	31	51	25	27
17	Anthony Noto	Lock Haven	8	13	2	3	6
18	Stevo Poulin	Northern Colorado	17	12	6	12	10
19	Anthony Molton	Campbell	26	30	51	19	25
20	Patrick McKee	Minnesota	14	17	11	8	11
21	Blake West	Northern Illinois	32	57	51	38	34
22	Ethan Berginc	Army	31	33	51	27	29
23	Jett Strickenberger	West Virginia	57	57	51	28	37
24	Brandon Kaylor	Oregon State	19	10	13	17	14
25	Brendan McCrone	Ohio State	24	21	51	24	24
26	Brayden Palmer	Chattanooga	23	29	51	15	23
27	Drew West	Gardner-Webb	57	57	51	39	41
28	Kysen Terukina	Iowa State	25	23	51	33	26
29	Jakob Camacho	North Carolina State	22	22	18	16	20
30	Spencer Moore	North Carolina	29	26	51	36	29
31	Dominic Mendez	Cal Poly	30	57	51	41	36
32	Diego Sotelo	Harvard	21	25	51	20	22
33	Trever Anderson	Northern Iowa	57	28	51	32	31
34	Eli Griffin	California Baptist	27	27	51	30	27
35	Carlos Negrete	North Dakota State	57	57	51	46	46
36	Kade Davidheiser	Bucknell	57	57	51	74	77
37	Conrad Hendriksen	Oklahoma	33	57	51	37	34
38	Tristan Lujan	Michigan State	57	57	51	40	42
39	Michael Joyce	Brown	57	57	51	52	52
40	Jeremiah Reno	Little Rock	57	57	51	31	38
41	Max Gallagher	Pennsylvania	57	32	51	29	32
42	Sean Spidle	Central Michigan	57	57	51	48	48
43	Jake Ice	Sacred Heart	57	57	51	68	68
44	Justin Cardani	Illinois	57	57	51	54	54
45	Kyle Montaperto	Virginia	57	57	51	49	49
46	Richie Figueroa	Arizona State	11	14	19	14	13
47	Tucker Owens	Air Force	57	57	51	45	45
48	Joey Fischer	Clarion	57	57	51	50	50
49	Yusief Lillie	Utah Valley	57	57	51	66	66
50	Nick Babin	Columbia	57	57	51	34	39
51	Davian Guanajuato	Southern Illinois Edwardsville	57	57	51	57	57
52	Benjamin Aranda	Cleveland State	57	57	51	59	59
53	Tyler Klinsky	Rider	57	57	51	35	40
54	Drew Heethuis	Princeton	57	57	51	43	43
55	Chad Bellis	Appalachian State	57	57	51	44	44
56	Richard Castro-Sandoval	Cal State Bakersfield	57	57	51	53	53
57	Damion Ryan	Bellarmine	57	57	51	69	69
58	Tommy Capul	Maryland	57	57	51	76	76
59	Colton Camacho	Pittsburgh	57	24	51	42	33
60	Blaine Frazier	Indiana	57	57	51	47	47
61	JB Dragovich	George Mason	57	57	51	67	67
62	Desmond Pleasant	Drexel	57	57	51	51	51
63	Logan Agin	Duke	57	57	51	56	56
64	Dylan Acevedo-Switzer	Hofstra	57	57	51	63	63
65	Robbie Sagaris	Long Island	57	57	51	62	62
66	Trenton Dominguez	Presbyterian	57	57	51	75	75
67	Massey Odiotti	Northwestern	57	57	51	71	71
68	Kevin Lopez	Morgan State	57	57	51	78	78
69	Malik Hardy	Citadel	57	57	51	58	58
70	Dayton DelViscio	Navy	57	57	51	64	64
71	Eric Howe	Franklin & Marshall	57	57	51	65	65
72	Carson Wagner	Binghamton	57	57	51	55	55
73	Max Elton	Buffalo	57	57	51	60	60
74	Enis Ljikovic	Davidson	57	57	51	79	79
75	Caleb Edwards	Edinboro	57	57	51	73	73
76	Bronson Garber	Bloomsburg	57	57	51	61	61
77	Tony Burke	VMI	57	57	51	77	78
78	Ryan Meek	Ohio	57	57	51	72	72
79	Adan Benavidez	Kent State	57	57	51	70	70
80	Austin Kegley	Lindenwood	57	57	51	80	80
81	Daniel Graham	Queens	57	57	51	81	81

Edited February 4 by flyingcement