It’s Not a Phobia

[1032004]

On 9/23/2026 at 3:00 PM, Caveira said:

 

Mid-2023 (Eve of Oct 7): 5,480,000

Current (Mid-2026):  5,692,790

 

sorry it’s 3.89%   
 

Now do just Gaza

Edited September 29 by 1032004

[Offthemat]

HAMAS’s Own Gaza Death Toll Statistics Undermine the “Israeli Genocide” Narrative

 

KYLE ORTON

SEP 26, 2026

 

 

 

 

 

The above chart, created by the Israel Policy Forum’s Gabriel Epstein, is a summary of the latest Gaza death toll list put out by HAMAS’s “health ministry”.1 The list contains 72,835 names, each a purported fatality incurred between 7 October 2023 and 7 May 2026, and gives a breakdown of the fatalities by age and sex.

The top-line numbers are striking:

• 70% (almost exactly) or nearly 51,000 of the total fatalities are male;2

• 49.5% or about 36,000 of the total fatalities are adult males (aged 18-64);

• 30% or nearly 22,000 of the total fatalities are female;

• 28% or about 20,500 of the total fatalities are children (under-18), and about 60% (just over 12,000) of the under-18 fatalities are male;

• 4.7% or about 3,400 of the total fatalities are elderly (aged 65 and over).

Until quite recently, it was standard for the United Nations and its associated “humanitarian” NGOs to report that 70% of the Palestinians killed in Gaza were women and children. It was bad enough that these institutions were laundering the HAMAS death toll statistics—the central element of the terrorists’ political warfare—but in this specific case it was even worse. The HAMAS numbers have not shown that percentage for some time. What the NGOs and the U.N. were laundering was HAMAS’s press releases, which misrepresented their own data. Nor has the game entirely been given up: as recently as April, the U.N. claimed 38,000 women and girls had been killed in Gaza, a figure 75% higher than what HAMAS’s data claims.

Taking the numbers on their own terms, and with the obvious caveat that not all the males killed—not even all of the military-age males—were combatants, there is an immediate prima facie difficulty for the “Israeli genocide” narrative. The pre-war Gazan population was roughly 47% children (under-18), 25% each adult male and female (18-65), and 3% elderly (over-65), with a total female population of 49%. The sex ratio and the number of children in HAMAS’s death toll list, therefore, do not testify to an indiscriminate Israeli attack on Gaza’s population intended to destroy Palestinians “as such”, which would be necessary to meet the definition in the Genocide Convention.

Now we come to the first of the problems with the data: the use of child soldiers by HAMAS and the other Islamic Revolution units. The scale of the “martyrdom” notices makes clear that the terrorist groups routinely recruited older teens, aged 15 to 17,3but the ages of the publicly celebrated child “martyrs” go down as far as 12-years-old. As HAMAS, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the others are still in the process of releasing official obituaries for their fighters, these numbers will rise.

The jihadists’ use of child soldiers is reflected even in HAMAS’s data, where roughly equal numbers of males and females aged 0-11 are listed as fatalities,4 while twice as many males as females aged 12-17 are listed as fatalities,5 and if the bracket is restricted to 15-17 it is edging towards three males listed for every one female.6

To try to take account of this, and with the same caveat as before, we can calculate the males aged 15-65 in the HAMAS list: about 39,400 or 54% of the total fatalities, which is 77% of the total male fatalities.

This issue with the child soldiers is part of the broader problem with the HAMAS data, namely it does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. HAMAS treats everyone on the list as a martyr in the struggle against the Zionist Entity and heavily implies they are all civilians, a piece of disinformation often made explicit by HAMAS’s surrogates (witting and unwitting) in the global ecosystem of U.N. officials, NGOs, journalists, academics, “human rights” activists, “international law” custodians, and even some Western governments.

There is then the systemic problem that HAMAS attributes all deaths in its total to Israel, while the list in fact includes:

• Palestinians killed by misfired HAMAS and PIJ rockets;

• Palestinians killed in intra-Palestinian fighting between HAMAS and the clans;

• Palestinians killed in common crimes (domestic abuse, banditry, etc.);

• Palestinians killed in accidents;

• Palestinians who die natural deaths.

It is also an open question whether the HAMAS death toll includes people who are not dead. The explosion at the Ahli Hospital on 17 October 2023 was widely reported as an Israeli airstrike that had killed nearly 500 people, and HAMAS’s running tally incorporated that explanation and number long after it became clear Al-Ahli had been struck by a misfired PIJ missile and perhaps fifty people had been killed. Whether those imaginary victims remain on the HAMAS list, and how many more have been added, is unknown.

HAMAS’s list does not include the dates of deaths, nor any indication of its data collection methodology, an understandable decision from its perspective, since its prior explanations—giving it the benefit of assuming the explanations were true—lowered the credibility of its data. This time around, HAMAS has at least provided complete data for each entry—date of birth, age, sex, identification number—but there is absolutely no way of knowing if this data is correct.

About 4,000 deaths were added to the HAMAS list between November 2025 and May 2026. This is, however, a net total, because HAMAS simultaneously removed 450 names. How HAMAS accomplishes these feats of resurrection at such regular intervalsnobody knows—and nobody seems to care enough to ask, certainly not the United Nations, which simply and diligently updates its figures to match whatever HAMAS is currently claiming.

To round out where HAMAS’s claims stand, it said back in April that there are 8,000 bodies under the rubble, which would bring the total HAMAS-given death toll in Gaza to 81,000, far below the estimates of activist “studies” that have tried to generate fatality totals over 100,000 by relying on the “missing” and other statistical shenanigans.

There are three conclusions to be drawn from this. First, the problems with the HAMAS data are so grave—just the concrete, identifiable problems sketched above, not even factoring in the likelihood of outright fabrication—that the data is unusable to say what is true about the fatalities in Gaza. Second, precisely because the HAMAS data is subject to such extensive manipulation, it draws some lines around what can be true. It is most improbable HAMAS is undercounting the aggregate total, so that can be used as a rough ceiling. On the same evidence-against-interest basis, it is reasonable to treat HAMAS’s women and children figures as maximums, and its military-age male tally as a minimum. Third, the directional signal from HAMAS’s own claims about the death toll in Gaza points to Israel having waged a conventional war against a terrorist organisation embedded in an urban environment, and cuts strongly against the claim that Israeli conduct amounts to “genocide”.

https://www.kyleorton.com/p/hamas-death-toll-numbers-cut-against-israeli-genocide-narrative

[Caveira]

19 minutes ago, Offthemat said:

70% (almost exactly) or nearly 51,000 of the total fatalities are male

When targeting citizens.  It’s remarkable that somehow 70% are male don’t ya think @1032004?

[red viking]

45 minutes ago, Caveira said:

When targeting citizens.  It’s remarkable that somehow 70% are male don’t ya think @1032004?

70% is horrible. A lot of those are little kids too u idiot. 

[Caveira]

2 minutes ago, red viking said:

70% is horrible. A lot of those are little kids too u idiot. 

70% is fantastic.   And you know a ton of those kids are actual Hamas.   So it’s really far > than 70%

Did you not read this part?

There is then the systemic problem that HAMAS attributes all deaths in its total to Israel, while the list in fact includes:

• Palestinians killed by misfired HAMAS and PIJ rockets;

• Palestinians killed in intra-Palestinian fighting between HAMAS and the clans;

• Palestinians killed in common crimes (domestic abuse, banditry, etc.);

• Palestinians killed in accidents;

• Palestinians who die natural deaths.

[red viking]

7 minutes ago, Caveira said:

70% is fantastic.   And you know a ton of those kids are actual Hamas.   So it’s really far > than 70%

Did you not read this part?

 

There is then the systemic problem that HAMAS attributes all deaths in its total to Israel, while the list in fact includes:

• Palestinians killed by misfired HAMAS and PIJ rockets;

• Palestinians killed in intra-Palestinian fighting between HAMAS and the clans;

• Palestinians killed in common crimes (domestic abuse, banditry, etc.);

• Palestinians killed in accidents;

• Palestinians who die natural deaths.

Israel has literally butchered tens of thousands of women and children since 10/7. Bottom line. If u call that " fantastic" you're a sick MFer and should burn in hell. 

Edited September 29 by red viking

[Caveira]

6 minutes ago, red viking said:

Israel has literally butchered tens of thousands of women and children since 10/7. Bottom line. If u call that " fantastic" you're a sick MFer and should burn in hell. 

Women in Palestine support Hamas sometimes more than the men 

israel does a fantastic job limiting civilian casualties.   Tis a fact 

Edited September 29 by Caveira

[JimmySpeaks]

Hamas and their supporters played a stupid game and are still winning stupid prizes.  Gotta be careful what you wish for huh?

[1032004]

3 hours ago, Offthemat said:

 

HAMAS’s Own Gaza Death Toll Statistics Undermine the “Israeli Genocide” Narrative

 

KYLE ORTON

SEP 26, 2026

 

 

 

 

 

 

The above chart, created by the Israel Policy Forum’s Gabriel Epstein, is a summary of the latest Gaza death toll list put out by HAMAS’s “health ministry”.1 The list contains 72,835 names, each a purported fatality incurred between 7 October 2023 and 7 May 2026, and gives a breakdown of the fatalities by age and sex.

The top-line numbers are striking:

• 70% (almost exactly) or nearly 51,000 of the total fatalities are male;2

• 49.5% or about 36,000 of the total fatalities are adult males (aged 18-64);

• 30% or nearly 22,000 of the total fatalities are female;

• 28% or about 20,500 of the total fatalities are children (under-18), and about 60% (just over 12,000) of the under-18 fatalities are male;

• 4.7% or about 3,400 of the total fatalities are elderly (aged 65 and over).

Until quite recently, it was standard for the United Nations and its associated “humanitarian” NGOs to report that 70% of the Palestinians killed in Gaza were women and children. It was bad enough that these institutions were laundering the HAMAS death toll statistics—the central element of the terrorists’ political warfare—but in this specific case it was even worse. The HAMAS numbers have not shown that percentage for some time. What the NGOs and the U.N. were laundering was HAMAS’s press releases, which misrepresented their own data. Nor has the game entirely been given up: as recently as April, the U.N. claimed 38,000 women and girls had been killed in Gaza, a figure 75% higher than what HAMAS’s data claims.

Taking the numbers on their own terms, and with the obvious caveat that not all the males killed—not even all of the military-age males—were combatants, there is an immediate prima facie difficulty for the “Israeli genocide” narrative. The pre-war Gazan population was roughly 47% children (under-18), 25% each adult male and female (18-65), and 3% elderly (over-65), with a total female population of 49%. The sex ratio and the number of children in HAMAS’s death toll list, therefore, do not testify to an indiscriminate Israeli attack on Gaza’s population intended to destroy Palestinians “as such”, which would be necessary to meet the definition in the Genocide Convention.

Now we come to the first of the problems with the data: the use of child soldiers by HAMAS and the other Islamic Revolution units. The scale of the “martyrdom” notices makes clear that the terrorist groups routinely recruited older teens, aged 15 to 17,3but the ages of the publicly celebrated child “martyrs” go down as far as 12-years-old. As HAMAS, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and the others are still in the process of releasing official obituaries for their fighters, these numbers will rise.

The jihadists’ use of child soldiers is reflected even in HAMAS’s data, where roughly equal numbers of males and females aged 0-11 are listed as fatalities,4 while twice as many males as females aged 12-17 are listed as fatalities,5 and if the bracket is restricted to 15-17 it is edging towards three males listed for every one female.6

To try to take account of this, and with the same caveat as before, we can calculate the males aged 15-65 in the HAMAS list: about 39,400 or 54% of the total fatalities, which is 77% of the total male fatalities.

This issue with the child soldiers is part of the broader problem with the HAMAS data, namely it does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. HAMAS treats everyone on the list as a martyr in the struggle against the Zionist Entity and heavily implies they are all civilians, a piece of disinformation often made explicit by HAMAS’s surrogates (witting and unwitting) in the global ecosystem of U.N. officials, NGOs, journalists, academics, “human rights” activists, “international law” custodians, and even some Western governments.

There is then the systemic problem that HAMAS attributes all deaths in its total to Israel, while the list in fact includes:

• Palestinians killed by misfired HAMAS and PIJ rockets;

• Palestinians killed in intra-Palestinian fighting between HAMAS and the clans;

• Palestinians killed in common crimes (domestic abuse, banditry, etc.);

• Palestinians killed in accidents;

• Palestinians who die natural deaths.

It is also an open question whether the HAMAS death toll includes people who are not dead. The explosion at the Ahli Hospital on 17 October 2023 was widely reported as an Israeli airstrike that had killed nearly 500 people, and HAMAS’s running tally incorporated that explanation and number long after it became clear Al-Ahli had been struck by a misfired PIJ missile and perhaps fifty people had been killed. Whether those imaginary victims remain on the HAMAS list, and how many more have been added, is unknown.

HAMAS’s list does not include the dates of deaths, nor any indication of its data collection methodology, an understandable decision from its perspective, since its prior explanations—giving it the benefit of assuming the explanations were true—lowered the credibility of its data. This time around, HAMAS has at least provided complete data for each entry—date of birth, age, sex, identification number—but there is absolutely no way of knowing if this data is correct.

About 4,000 deaths were added to the HAMAS list between November 2025 and May 2026. This is, however, a net total, because HAMAS simultaneously removed 450 names. How HAMAS accomplishes these feats of resurrection at such regular intervalsnobody knows—and nobody seems to care enough to ask, certainly not the United Nations, which simply and diligently updates its figures to match whatever HAMAS is currently claiming.

To round out where HAMAS’s claims stand, it said back in April that there are 8,000 bodies under the rubble, which would bring the total HAMAS-given death toll in Gaza to 81,000, far below the estimates of activist “studies” that have tried to generate fatality totals over 100,000 by relying on the “missing” and other statistical shenanigans.

There are three conclusions to be drawn from this. First, the problems with the HAMAS data are so grave—just the concrete, identifiable problems sketched above, not even factoring in the likelihood of outright fabrication—that the data is unusable to say what is true about the fatalities in Gaza. Second, precisely because the HAMAS data is subject to such extensive manipulation, it draws some lines around what can be true. It is most improbable HAMAS is undercounting the aggregate total, so that can be used as a rough ceiling. On the same evidence-against-interest basis, it is reasonable to treat HAMAS’s women and children figures as maximums, and its military-age male tally as a minimum. Third, the directional signal from HAMAS’s own claims about the death toll in Gaza points to Israel having waged a conventional war against a terrorist organisation embedded in an urban environment, and cuts strongly against the claim that Israeli conduct amounts to “genocide”.

https://www.kyleorton.com/p/hamas-death-toll-numbers-cut-against-israeli-genocide-narrative

Is this a different report than the one you already admitted to lying about previously?

[Caveira]

5 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Is this a different report than the one you already admitted to lying about previously?

This was published 3 days ago 

you didn’t even read it ill bet 

Edited September 29 by Caveira

[1032004]

8 minutes ago, Caveira said:

This was published 3 days ago 

you didn’t even read it ill bet 

I did.  I laughed at the suggestion that saying they killed 50% males was used as some sort of evidence.  Lol.

[Offthemat]

12 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Is this

GFY

[1032004]

Just now, Offthemat said:

GFY

Looks like some of the same numbers as the one you already admitted to lying about.

[Caveira]

4 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I did.  I laughed at the suggestion that saying they killed 50% males was used as some sort of evidence.  Lol.

It said 70% I think 

[1032004]

1 minute ago, Caveira said:

It said 70% I think 

Sorry, 50% males 18-64

[Caveira]

16 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Sorry, 50% males 18-64

 

41 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

70% (almost exactly) or nearly 51,000 of the total fatalities are male;

Remember.   Tons of kids under 18 are literally in Hamas fighting 

[1032004]

2 minutes ago, Caveira said:

 

Remember.   Tons of kids under 18 are literally in Hamas fighting 

And “tons” of 18-50 year old males are not.

[Caveira]

17 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

And “tons” of 18-50 year old males are not.

Tons of males over 13 are all in Hamas yes 

the vast majority of males are in Hamas after they get hair in their ballz 

Edited September 29 by Caveira

[1032004]

6 minutes ago, Caveira said:

 

the vast majority of males are in Hamas after they get hair in their ballz 

Link?

[Caveira]

16 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Link?

https://Www.hamas.sign.up.sheet.com

This kids 5 

 

Edited September 29 by Caveira

[1032004]

14 minutes ago, Caveira said:

https://Www.hamas.sign.up.sheet.com

Dudes 5 

 

lol, I read a different forum, and it’s funny that you guys always post the same exact Twitter propaganda.

[Caveira]

Just now, 1032004 said:

lol, I read a different forum, and it’s funny that you guys always post the same exact Twitter propaganda.

Can’t help so many kids are in Hamas.   And they film the living shit out of themselves being king terrorists 

but you look the other way cause.     Woke or broke 

 

 

[1032004]

Just now, Caveira said:

Can’t help so many kids are in Hamas.   And they film the living shit out of themselves being king terrorists 

but you look the other way cause.     Woke or broke 

 

 

Must not be that many if you guys post the same exact propaganda 

[Caveira]

2 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

Must not be that many if you guys post the same exact propaganda 

More than the Jews you don’t like. 
 

more kids

 

 

Edited September 29 by Caveira

[JimmySpeaks]

Actual videos are somehow propaganda.  You can’t make it up.