GrandOlm

Look at Bulgaria. They went from the second best Greco nation on earth by miles for decades to now they only qualified two wrestlers. None of them ethnic Bulgarians. One a straight up mercenary who has nothing to do with Bulgaria and only left as an adult because he couldn't make his own countries team and the other also possibly learned his wrestling elsewhere. Sweden used to be the best Greco country in the world (before WW2) and now they don't even have one qualifier.

FS All 6 are medalist level. None are the favorites for gold. I think Spencer, Brooks, and Dake all have the level to potentially win gold. Snyder and Mason are a level below the gold crowd. Saudlaev has owned the rivalry with Snyder. Also landmines in Taz and whoever Iran sends. Mason lost to Geno and Masoumi. Both guys have been beaten soundly by Zare. I think Akgul would be a harder match for Mason than even Geno. I'm not sure about Zain. 65 has a lot of parity and I could see him bombing out or doing really well. Greco - 0 None of them are medalist level imo. That doesn't necessarily mean that they can't get one, but it would require dream draws or completely anomalous performances. Jacobson - Nothing to suggest he is anything but at fill the bracket level. Rau - He is 33 already and was never close to medaling. I think Aleskanjan, Saravi, whoever Russia sends, beat him comfortably. And he can take a loss from whoever in the field. Coon - I think Semenov and Lopez (if he feels like it) destroy him. Riza, Amin, should beat him comfortably. There are some really good wrestlers in Greco not going from Europe. The US is really fortunate they have pan ams to qualify.

Spencer has a recent interview where he said his original goal was to win 4 ncaa titles and 12 olympic/world gold medals. I'm not exactly sure what the significance of 12 was to him, three olympic cycles or be the most decorated freestyle wrestler in history plus +2? Those were his plans, starting at 25 and all his injuries were not something he factored in back when he set them. From the way he spoke in the interview, I think he did care about being the most decorated freestyle wrestler at one point. Whether he sees that as feasible anymore (probably not)? My gut feeling is he'll want to complete one olympic cycle and then take stock again. I think his short term goal is be a world and olympic champion at least once.

I don't think any of the Americans are the on paper favorites for Gold (you can make an argument for Brooks but that's giving a lot of transitive property accomplishments to him). I'd say 57, 65, and 125 are the beat the field weights where there are a couple medal contenders who could win gold. 86 and 97 have a final boss that is in a different tier from everyone else. 74 is in between. (Sidakov is the unanimous favorite but he does take losses and has really close matches sometimes).

I don't think 57 kg has a final boss the way 86 or 97 kg do. Spencer will need to beat the field, anyone of them can give him a tough match, just like Zou. I don't think there is some big step up in level, just more of them.

I don't think any of the guys left in the Olympics will do well. Jacobson is US domestic level, in the modern US greco era. He is just part of the field, there to be a climb the ladder win for the medalists. Rau is so basic. And he's old. I saw him talking about learning par terre defense, at an age when a lot of wrestlers retire. 97 kg has pretty stratified tiers. I think any of the tier 1 wrestlers should tech him and tier 2 types beat him comfortably. Coon has the luckiest silver medal of his generation, but he has been part time greco with his failed nfl stint. It matters less at 130 kg but still. He overwhelmed with his size and strength in that dream draw run, but most of those types of people have been weeded out at the olympics. I think Semenov destroys him again if they meet. He'd need a dream draw again, be at his best form, and to wrestle someone like Alin for bronze to get a medal. All three are low ceiling types (unlike past games with G'Angelo). It would be more exciting if there was a low floor high ceiling competitor.