GrandOlm

For all the grief Yazdani gets, most of the big international rivalries are pretty one sided. Snyder is like 1-3 vs Sad. Even Geno is about 3-10 against Akgul. And every time Geno won it was barely, by the skin of his teeth after tiring Akgul out, while Akgul has demolished Geno on occasions.

Weird h2h match ups can happen. Bruce was 4-2 (and one of the wins was a 1-1 judges decision) against someone who never medaled at the olympics or won worlds. It's relevant when you reach that "I don't lose for years level" where every loss gets magnified or if you are close to the same decorated.

Breaks his promise to retire at Tokyo. Commits to another Olympic cycle to get his dream Olympic Gold. Get pinned in the hometown tournament UWW stages with you as the centerpiece. In your one world championship win after Tokyo you can't score against your opponent in the final. That same opponent gasses you badly and beats you at the next world championship. After again lying about how you would stop at the European Championships and with premature overly lavish celebrations in a semifinal, you get pinned in the final when you were supposed to break the record. Oh and the much older guy who has been blocking you from winning olympic gold for a decade recommits to attending the olympics. Then you lose to Irans backup in warmup tournament. And then you get banned for PEDs, taking you out of the olympic forever? (38 seems like a stretch) and throwing away everything you had been working for over the last 3 years (not to mention the PED stain on your legacy).

I don't feel that anything is that surprising in Greco world, other than Lopez losing and an American winning gold. Russia's absence does make medaling easier. In MFS, all of them but Zain are solid Gold contenders but not favorites (besides Dake). But it's not like there is some Karelin like figure blocking a weight (I guess Taz could be that and we don't know it yet, but that's tbd). I guess the chance of all of them doing well as they could is bold?

Why Kadzi? He is a pretty minor figure in the grand scheme of senior level wrestling? Or do you just mean his form was that good at Tokyo.

I think he'll be forgotten. No one remembers Salman even though he achieved about the same and his career ended similarly due to politics.

My guesses as to what would have happened to the US golds in 1984 at some of the weights. MFS 100+: Salaman gold. Salman was the heavy favorite and owned Bruce 5-0 h2h. Almost all of Salman's losses were to other top soviets. I think Balla and Sandurski could have given Bruce tough outs. 100: Whoever the soviets sent. They won both worlds between the olympics. Young future legend Khabelov debuted in 85. Not a lot of data points for Banach. GR 100: Rostorotsky for Gold : Tomov would have been the nominal favorite but he was a notorious choker. If the soviets sent Rostorotsky; he was just too big and powerful for Blatnick to beat and silver would be his ceiling. If the soviets sent someone else because of seniority or whatever, maybe Blatnick could squeak by. He'd have to wrestle the tournament of his life, beat the Soviet, or hope Tomov chokes again. 90: The Soviet (Kanygin) and Bulgarian (Komchev) were the favorites. An American did win gold at 85 but it wasn't Fraser and Houck was an anomaly of a win.

The modern olympics have not been about the best vs the best in wrestling. The soviet championships brackets were higher level than the olympic tournament at many weights for decades. From a wrestling purist stand, of course there is an asterisk. Russia has the best MFS and maybe the best GR team in world. But the modern olympic games are not the ancient olympics and they are also not a wrestling purist organization or anything close to that. They dignify ping pong and gymnastics more in a sportive sense than wrestling, allowing multiple competitors if they have a high enough level. The olympics are a begrudging showcase and promotional event for wrestling. To audiences and politicians that don't care or know much about the sport. In that sense there is no asterisk since the public doesn't care enough to know Russia excels at wrestling.

The IOC should hire him.

There is an unusually high frequency of balding 20s and early 30s year olds in wrestling. And not all of them come from Russia.

This really successful player who everyone keeps comparing Gable to wasn't a prodigy like Gable was in wrestling, from the bio I saw in wiki. The player was a three star (it's out of 5 right?) recruit in high school and was a backup his college freshman year. He was picked 13th in a draft. So it looks like he grew into it and kept getting better. And I guess he started playing when he was 5 from people's comments. I don't see the Gable comparison, is he going to start his career at 40?

My high school gym teacher (mid to late 20's) had been signed by an NFL team. It is a big deal, but it's not the same as "making it".

Whatever Iran is doing with Greco they're doing it right. I don't think it's just luck that the depth they have is two different world champions at heavyweight and a third guy who just beat Riza. There's been a power vacuum in Greco since the collapse of the soviet union and no one has stepped up to take its place ... yet. Riza's aura is gone. He can still medal I think but several guys can stalemate him, a few could beat him. From 2011 to 2021 it was only Lopez stopping him, but the losses are just piling on since Tokyo. Semenov by throw and pin, Amin by pushouts, Kend by pin. His endurance is looking bad, he was tired out by both Amin and Semonov of all people (who looks like aged 20 years and put on 40 lbs of fat sine 2021). The gold medal's Riza has won have been ref heavy. Coon loses. This is a low ceiling US team.

Geno's gun slinger style is prone a wide variance of results. One tournament he loses a nail biter to Taha and then the next tournament he gets destroyed by Taha. He'll almost lose to someone like Dziannis but then almost beats Gable, who annihilated everyone else.

I think we are already there with Freestyle. 57 kg: Akbarov, Micic, RBY 65 kg: Musukaev, Islam Dudaev 74: Tsabablov, Kadz, Salk 86 kg: Myles, Osman, Kurugliev 97: Taz, Magomedov To name a couple . And these are people winning medals, they have no actual connection to the wrestling systems in the countries they rep.

I think it's unequivocably true. You would never see an adult athlete from another sport pick up tennis and then win Wimbledon a couple years later. Some sports are just more skill based, others require just more in general athleticism and body types.

His seemingly inhuman strength. Rulon compared it to wrestling a draft horse. But it was also his downfall. Karelin's game was built around the 5 point suplex. Once he lost his great strength due to aging and injuries, he was no longer the same wrestler and needed to retire.

Poland? They're okay. It's not a wrestling nation (it never was), I don't know how technical they can actually be with the ever more limited participants and coaches. I think they placed in the top 10 not that long ago. Not as good as they used to be. I think their last great wrestler was Wronski and he grew up under communism. All the formerly pretty good continental European countries (except Hungary) have declined significantly since the fall of communism. Combination of high emigration, low birth rates, abolishment of the draft. Kyrgystan, Iran, Azerbajan have all lept frogged from. Probably just through just increasing youth participation and specialization.

This general sports transferability theory is nonsense. It only holds some truth in sports to the extent that the sport overlaps in the types of movements and actions performed. The only positions that correlate to a notable degree with wrestling are linemen (for heavyweights). Gable is short for a lineman, that's the only position he would be going for. Coon failed at it, why exactly would Gable be better? Just because he's a better wrestler? Karelin was unexceptional at multiple sports that he tried as a kid (and this is among just among normal local peers who were never on a pro track ) and I think he turned out to be pretty good at one sport in particular.

Look at Bulgaria. They went from the second best Greco nation on earth by miles for decades to now they only qualified two wrestlers. None of them ethnic Bulgarians. One a straight up mercenary who has nothing to do with Bulgaria and only left as an adult because he couldn't make his own countries team and the other also possibly learned his wrestling elsewhere. Sweden used to be the best Greco country in the world (before WW2) and now they don't even have one qualifier.

FS All 6 are medalist level. None are the favorites for gold. I think Spencer, Brooks, and Dake all have the level to potentially win gold. Snyder and Mason are a level below the gold crowd. Saudlaev has owned the rivalry with Snyder. Also landmines in Taz and whoever Iran sends. Mason lost to Geno and Masoumi. Both guys have been beaten soundly by Zare. I think Akgul would be a harder match for Mason than even Geno. I'm not sure about Zain. 65 has a lot of parity and I could see him bombing out or doing really well. Greco - 0 None of them are medalist level imo. That doesn't necessarily mean that they can't get one, but it would require dream draws or completely anomalous performances. Jacobson - Nothing to suggest he is anything but at fill the bracket level. Rau - He is 33 already and was never close to medaling. I think Aleskanjan, Saravi, whoever Russia sends, beat him comfortably. And he can take a loss from whoever in the field. Coon - I think Semenov and Lopez (if he feels like it) destroy him. Riza, Amin, should beat him comfortably. There are some really good wrestlers in Greco not going from Europe. The US is really fortunate they have pan ams to qualify.

Spencer has a recent interview where he said his original goal was to win 4 ncaa titles and 12 olympic/world gold medals. I'm not exactly sure what the significance of 12 was to him, three olympic cycles or be the most decorated freestyle wrestler in history plus +2? Those were his plans, starting at 25 and all his injuries were not something he factored in back when he set them. From the way he spoke in the interview, I think he did care about being the most decorated freestyle wrestler at one point. Whether he sees that as feasible anymore (probably not)? My gut feeling is he'll want to complete one olympic cycle and then take stock again. I think his short term goal is be a world and olympic champion at least once.

I don't think any of the Americans are the on paper favorites for Gold (you can make an argument for Brooks but that's giving a lot of transitive property accomplishments to him). I'd say 57, 65, and 125 are the beat the field weights where there are a couple medal contenders who could win gold. 86 and 97 have a final boss that is in a different tier from everyone else. 74 is in between. (Sidakov is the unanimous favorite but he does take losses and has really close matches sometimes).

I don't think 57 kg has a final boss the way 86 or 97 kg do. Spencer will need to beat the field, anyone of them can give him a tough match, just like Zou. I don't think there is some big step up in level, just more of them.

I don't think any of the guys left in the Olympics will do well. Jacobson is US domestic level, in the modern US greco era. He is just part of the field, there to be a climb the ladder win for the medalists. Rau is so basic. And he's old. I saw him talking about learning par terre defense, at an age when a lot of wrestlers retire. 97 kg has pretty stratified tiers. I think any of the tier 1 wrestlers should tech him and tier 2 types beat him comfortably. Coon has the luckiest silver medal of his generation, but he has been part time greco with his failed nfl stint. It matters less at 130 kg but still. He overwhelmed with his size and strength in that dream draw run, but most of those types of people have been weeded out at the olympics. I think Semenov destroys him again if they meet. He'd need a dream draw again, be at his best form, and to wrestle someone like Alin for bronze to get a medal. All three are low ceiling types (unlike past games with G'Angelo). It would be more exciting if there was a low floor high ceiling competitor.