Is this what you voted for?

[JimmySpeaks]

10 minutes ago, fishbane said:

The bet your other alias originally proposed was this "I’ll bet that illegal immigrants kill more U.S. citizens than citizens who are wrongly deported." That is what I asked the question "How many US citizens were murdered by illegal immigrants in 2024 and so far this year?" in response. You proposed a bet that was one number is greater than another number.  My question was to try and determine one of the numbers.  I asked about US citizens because that is what you wanted to bet.  If you now want to expand it from "illegal immigrants kill more US citizens" to more broadly "illegal immigrants kill more people in the US"  I don't think it substantively changes the proposal.

The math behind my statement is pretty simply.  If illegal immigrants commit homicides at a higher rate than the rest of the population then deporting all illegal immigrants will cause a reduction in the homicide rate.  If not then the murder rate will be expected to either go up or not change. 

If they’re not here they won’t make it go up. Pretty simple. 

[braves121]

6 minutes ago, Caveira said:

Obama didn’t detain him.  He just kept him in detainment for over 1,000 days for the first 3 or so years of his term.    
 

Maybe he doesn’t care about citizens being detained illegally.  I don’t know his reasoning to be honest.  You’ll have to help me with that one. 

No matter how many times you try to claim Obama detained a man in 2008 like you still have posted will not make it true 

[JimmySpeaks]

1 minute ago, braves121 said:

No matter how many times you try to claim Obama detained a man in 2008 like you still have posted will not make it true 

I’m pretty sure his first sentence says Obama didn’t detain him.  

[braves121]

1 minute ago, JimmySpeaks said:

I’m pretty sure his first sentence says Obama didn’t detain him.  

He has a post saying Obama detained a us citizen in 2008 so i don’t think he has any credibility 

[JimmySpeaks]

Just now, braves121 said:

He has a post saying Obama detained a us citizen in 2008 so i don’t think he has any credibility 

His most recent post says Obama didn’t detain him but he kept him there. 

[braves121]

Just now, JimmySpeaks said:

His most recent post says Obama didn’t detain him but he kept him there. 

Don’t care if someone’s stupid enough to post that Obama detained people in 2008 when he wasn’t president he will just continuously make up stuff 

[JimmySpeaks]

Just now, braves121 said:

Don’t care if someone’s stupid enough to post that Obama detained people in 2008 when he wasn’t president he will just continuously make up stuff 

Ok RV jr 

[fishbane]

1 minute ago, JimmySpeaks said:

If they’re not here they won’t make it go up. Pretty simple. 

There are two numbers used to calculate the murder rate,  # of murders and total population.  Deporting violent criminals, murders, gang members, etc might lower the numerator, but if you are removing all illegal immigrants you are also decreasing the denominator by removing people who are not violent criminals/murders.

I'll give a more concrete example.  There are a lot of murders in the state of NY (almost 600 in 2023), but there are also a lot of people (~20M).  The murder rate in NY is lower than the national average.  If ICE were deport all New Yorkers they would be removing a lot of murders, but mostly non-murderers and the net effect would be that the US murder rate would increase even though no New Yorkers would be here to make it go up.  

[JimmySpeaks]

4 minutes ago, fishbane said:

There are two numbers used to calculate the murder rate,  # of murders and total population.  Deporting violent criminals, murders, gang members, etc might lower the numerator, but if you are removing all illegal immigrants you are also decreasing the denominator by removing people who are not violent criminals/murders.

I'll give a more concrete example.  There are a lot of murders in the state of NY (almost 600 in 2023), but there are also a lot of people (~20M).  The murder rate in NY is lower than the national average.  If ICE were deport all New Yorkers they would be removing a lot of murders, but mostly non-murderers and the net effect would be that the US murder rate would increase even though no New Yorkers would be here to make it go up.  

I’ll give you a more concrete example.  If there aren’t any unlawful immigrants here they can’t impact the number or rate at all. 

[JimmySpeaks]

7 minutes ago, fishbane said:

There are two numbers used to calculate the murder rate,  # of murders and total population.  Deporting violent criminals, murders, gang members, etc might lower the numerator, but if you are removing all illegal immigrants you are also decreasing the denominator by removing people who are not violent criminals/murders.

I'll give a more concrete example.  There are a lot of murders in the state of NY (almost 600 in 2023), but there are also a lot of people (~20M).  The murder rate in NY is lower than the national average.  If ICE were deport all New Yorkers they would be removing a lot of murders, but mostly non-murderers and the net effect would be that the US murder rate would increase even though no New Yorkers would be here to make it go up.  

So is that like when a murder happens in South Dakota it doubles the murder rate but actual murders only went up one ?   

[fishbane]

1 minute ago, JimmySpeaks said:

So is that like when a murder happens in South Dakota it doubles the murder rate but actual murders only went up one ?   

Not exactly.  That would be the case if there was only one murder in South Dakota this year.  There has probably been more than 1.  In 2023 there was 27.

[JimmySpeaks]

7 minutes ago, fishbane said:

Not exactly.  That would be the case if there was only one murder in South Dakota this year.  There has probably been more than 1.  In 2023 there was 27.

I’m glad that you agree that if there aren’t any unlawfuls here they can’t impact the rate or the actual number at all. 

[Tripnsweep]

You can't expect little Jimmy to understand math. That's beyond his grade level. 

[JimmySpeaks]

Unlawfuls need to go.