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Posted

YIKES;

57 Spencer gets that North Korean no one knows about then HARUTYUNYAN 

61 Jax gets Suda(4 but picked 1 or 2) second round if he wins

65 Woods gets #1 Amouzad if he wins

70 PJ has to beat #3 then he probably gets Gomez

Carr yes above

Haines on top with #1

Zahid gates GHASEMPOUR or Kadiev in semis

Hidlay on tough half with #1 and Ishiguro

Snyder should be Ok til semis

Wyatt sees #3 second match then would need to beat Zare in semis

Posted

Brutal draws. We may only see 2-3 medals this year inlcuding the mercenaries. This is about as bad as it could go.

57 Lee gold

61 Jax 0-1 or 1-1, won't get pulled back

65 Seabass has a favorable draw, will need to beat Tevanyan in quarters for a medal because Kiyooka is going to go bonkers. Woods 0-1 or 1-1, 50% he gets pulled back if he can win his first match. Amouzad and Sujeet will be the fire.

70 Duke tough match off the scale 01 or 1-1. Gomez same issue. No medal.

74 Carr has a meat grinder. Hoping for a medal but 74 is always so tough.

79 Haines has a RUS expat from Sadulaev's club off the scale. 2 Asians medalist, won Yasar Dogu last year at 79. Not great! Probably pulled into repechage. Mikey Labs might win his first match, no clue if he will get pulled back.

86 Zahid meets Ghasempour in the quarters. The earlier the better, because Zahid has gas tank issues and Ghas is going to be walking around at 97 the minute weigh-ins are done. Ramos might sneak in a couple wins and be a bracket buster. Where is Amine? Is he really going all-in on the influencer career?

92 Hidlay has the best draw of anyone and has an optimal path to the semis which as long as he doesn't get upset should put him in a medal match or finals... hopefully. Honis on the other hand will likely go 0-1 and not get pulled back in.

97 Snyder has a good path to the finals as long as he doesn't trip on a landmine.

125 Hendrickson opens with the same guy he pinned at U23 worlds with a torn knee. But that match was MUCH closer than the scoreboard said as it was 11-9 with a minute to go. Second match is just as tough, then third match will be savvy old man Sharipov. If he runs that gauntlet, he is graced with Zare's presence. I think he can make it to Zare in the semis to get a bronze, but I would not be surprised by a DNP. Jovan Smith probably 0-1, might go 1-2 if he can pull off a first round upset.

  • Bob 1

i am an idiot on the internet

Posted
23 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Brutal draws. We may only see 2-3 medals this year inlcuding the mercenaries. This is about as bad as it could go.

57 Lee gold

61 Jax 0-1 or 1-1, won't get pulled back

65 Seabass has a favorable draw, will need to beat Tevanyan in quarters for a medal because Kiyooka is going to go bonkers. Woods 0-1 or 1-1, 50% he gets pulled back if he can win his first match. Amouzad and Sujeet will be the fire.

70 Duke tough match off the scale 01 or 1-1. Gomez same issue. No medal.

74 Carr has a meat grinder. Hoping for a medal but 74 is always so tough.

79 Haines has a RUS expat from Sadulaev's club off the scale. 2 Asians medalist, won Yasar Dogu last year at 79. Not great! Probably pulled into repechage. Mikey Labs might win his first match, no clue if he will get pulled back.

86 Zahid meets Ghasempour in the quarters. The earlier the better, because Zahid has gas tank issues and Ghas is going to be walking around at 97 the minute weigh-ins are done. Ramos might sneak in a couple wins and be a bracket buster. Where is Amine? Is he really going all-in on the influencer career?

92 Hidlay has the best draw of anyone and has an optimal path to the semis which as long as he doesn't get upset should put him in a medal match or finals... hopefully. Honis on the other hand will likely go 0-1 and not get pulled back in.

97 Snyder has a good path to the finals as long as he doesn't trip on a landmine.

125 Hendrickson opens with the same guy he pinned at U23 worlds with a torn knee. But that match was MUCH closer than the scoreboard said as it was 11-9 with a minute to go. Second match is just as tough, then third match will be savvy old man Sharipov. If he runs that gauntlet, he is graced with Zare's presence. I think he can make it to Zare in the semis to get a bronze, but I would not be surprised by a DNP. Jovan Smith probably 0-1, might go 1-2 if he can pull off a first round upset.

Zahid has him (or Kadiev) in the semi-finals, not the quarters.

  • Bob 2

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

Posted
7 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

Zahid has him (or Kadiev) in the semi-finals, not the quarters.

Less optimal, but medal match still guaranteed. And unless the cut is really that brutal Ghasempour should dispatch Kadiev by a couple takedowns. I know he's shredded but it really seems like he's just being dramatic about the cut because he hasn't had to do one in a long time.

i am an idiot on the internet

Posted
3 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Less optimal, but medal match still guaranteed. And unless the cut is really that brutal Ghasempour should dispatch Kadiev by a couple takedowns. I know he's shredded but it really seems like he's just being dramatic about the cut because he hasn't had to do one in a long time.

I don't expect Ghasempour to beat Kadiev by a couple of takedowns.  The belief is that Kadiev is the next coming of Sadulaev (if not, better).

  • Bob 1

"I know actually nothing.  It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, Gene Mills Fan said:

YIKES;

57 Spencer gets that North Korean no one knows about then HARUTYUNYAN 

61 Jax gets Suda(4 but picked 1 or 2) second round if he wins

65 Woods gets #1 Amouzad if he wins

70 PJ has to beat #3 then he probably gets Gomez

Carr yes above

Haines on top with #1

Zahid gates GHASEMPOUR or Kadiev in semis

Hidlay on tough half with #1 and Ishiguro

Snyder should be Ok til semis

Wyatt sees #3 second match then would need to beat Zare in semis

Lee would get the North Korean after Harutyunyan

  • Jagger 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, nhs67 said:

I don't expect Ghasempour to beat Kadiev by a couple of takedowns.  The belief is that Kadiev is the next coming of Sadulaev (if not, better).

We shall see.

i am an idiot on the internet

Posted

57: Lee has the toughest side of the bracket, but he's the best guy in the bracket, period. 

61: Jax has to beat Suda, good chance to get pulled back into repechage if he gets beat by him

65: Woods likely goes down to Amouzad, but he should get pulled back in

70: Duke has reigning world champ match 2, and Gomez is on that side also, but I would anticipate Duke getting into repechage if he can't get by Kaiponov

74: Carr has a brutal draw. Has to beat Valiev and Sidakov to make finals, if he loses to Valiev he needs him to then beat Sidakov to get pulled back in, then would have to beat Sidakov. I think Carr is good enough to medal but not with this draw. 

79: Levi should get pulled back into repechage after Usmanov, not the easiest quad with the Georgian in there as well but not terrible

86: Zahid's isn't too bad, he will be guaranteed a medal match, but Kadiev or Ghas in the semis is rough (and the loser in a potential bronze match)

92: Hidlay will have a tough semi against Kurugliev but he could also see Nurmagomedov, both tough matches but he could win

97: Snyder should make the semi's where he would have a tough but winnable Yoshida or Matcharashvili 

125: Wyatt has a good shot to make the semis and take a shot at Zare, but it won't be a pushover at all. 

I will try to make weight-by-weight predictions later but looking at this, it is not too bad at all. It is never going to be easy at worlds and even though some of our newer guys (Jax, Woods, Duke, Haines) have early tough matches, they all have a reasonable shot at getting pulled back in. 

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