What do you do for work?

[scourge165]

1 minute ago, jross said:

Malware is more of a security issue than a performance one, but since you are such a pleasure to banter with...

The answer is to block the ads OR configure Norton to exempt the site.  And then do not click the ads.  Never click on ads... And report the problem to Bob.  Ideally the screenshot of the entire screen... Norton plus the ads.

Yeah, I got it under control with with Ohio Elite.

I obviously don't click on the adds and I have....somehow about 450 dollars of ever Norton service you could need.

It just kept re-directing the page(which...was kinda a performance issue) and it was only happening on this one website. 

 

[jross]

3 minutes ago, scourge165 said:

Yeah, I got it under control with with Ohio Elite.

I obviously don't click on the adds and I have....somehow about 450 dollars of ever Norton service you could need.

It just kept re-directing the page(which...was kinda a performance issue) and it was only happening on this one website. 

Regardless, you are welcome.

[BuckyBadger]

2 hours ago, scourge165 said:

Any takes on the whole deal with Trump doing all of this to lower the 10 year to refinance? You seem like you'd have a lot of insight into this....

It’s really hard to predict what might happen with rates, the stock market, the economy etc. A few weeks ago rates were trending down and the market expected the Fed to cut rates. Fast forward to today and with the tariff announcements expectations obviously changed. I think a lot of this depends on how far Trump is willing to go as far as decoupling from China. If he’s serious, then it probably does mean there will be some real economic pain. Higher supply chain costs —> higher prices —>inflation. That usually means higher interest rates. China could also dump a lot of their treasuries and drive yields higher.

The other scenario is Trump has already backed off on most of the tariffs for everyone except China. He has even come out with statements like he and Xi have a great relationship and there is a good chance of a deal with China. To me that indicates he isn’t serious about truly decoupling and enduring the pain we’d need to in order to pivot away from China.

I really don’t know where all this goes, but my guess is he probably has to walk a lot of this stuff back while some how trying to declare victory without much meaningful change. We probably get some more volatility in the markets. I wish I had bought when the S&P 500 was down 20% from its high. History has shown that works out really well. Maybe we get back down there and maybe this thing really spirals and it goes even lower.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years it’s to just buy when the price craters, don’t try and analyze too much, because it’s too complex to really figure out. Markets are simply a bunch of human emotions pushing against each other. 

I didn’t buy at the lows because I made that mistake to “analyze”, if it gets down there again I plan to just hold my nose and pull the trigger.

Hope that helps, but probably tells you nothing you didn’t know already!

[scourge165]

4 hours ago, BuckyBadger said:

It’s really hard to predict what might happen with rates, the stock market, the economy etc. A few weeks ago rates were trending down and the market expected the Fed to cut rates. Fast forward to today and with the tariff announcements expectations obviously changed. I think a lot of this depends on how far Trump is willing to go as far as decoupling from China. If he’s serious, then it probably does mean there will be some real economic pain. Higher supply chain costs —> higher prices —>inflation. That usually means higher interest rates. China could also dump a lot of their treasuries and drive yields higher.

That's what they did, why they were up to 4.5. I was just wondering what you thought about that in particular. 

 

4 hours ago, BuckyBadger said:

I really don’t know where all this goes, but my guess is he probably has to walk a lot of this stuff back while some how trying to declare victory without much meaningful change. We probably get some more volatility in the markets. I wish I had bought when the S&P 500 was down 20% from its high. History has shown that works out really well. Maybe we get back down there and maybe this thing really spirals and it goes even lower.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years it’s to just buy when the price craters, don’t try and analyze too much, because it’s too complex to really figure out. Markets are simply a bunch of human emotions pushing against each other. 

I didn’t buy at the lows because I made that mistake to “analyze”, if it gets down there again I plan to just hold my nose and pull the trigger.

I wasn't going to, but...when NVDA hit 153 and we'd hit more ATHs, I liquidated quite a bit.

It's the first time I've ever done something like that, but I was able to get in...lower. Not the bottom, but I'm never aiming t sell at the ATH or buy the bottom, but...if I can reset my DCA...I'm...pretty happy. But I'm a pretty narrow investor. BRK.B is my energy/insurance basically ETF and then it's...all tech and has been since ~2020. NVDA mainly but just heavy in the semi space. TSM and AVGO, then META, AMZN...some that got beat to hell so I choose to not list them like Advanced Money Destroyer(but I did add a LOT to that in the 70s). 

But mostly, I just saw my portfolio go down, down, down...as the flames got higher...and in burned burned burned...a lot...or 'Here we go down now, here we go down There's nothing but the powers that be!'

But now I'm a little more diversified and ready to liquidate again in 60 days and hopefully have  nice big tax bill next year or hear about the trade deals rolling in and leave everything while we go parabolic...back to where we were on Jan 21st!

[BuckyBadger]

39 minutes ago, scourge165 said:

That's what they did, why they were up to 4.5. I was just wondering what you thought about that in particular. 

Ok, so why did ten year treasury yields go up to 4.5?

There is something called the basis trade. Hedge funds borrow heavily to buy treasuries and sell a hedge like futures against the treasury. Because they borrow, or trade on margin to buy treasuries, they can get a margin call and be forced to sell their positions. As treasuries started selling off, everyone on the same side of this trade started getting margin calls, so there were forced to sell and it created a bit of a downward spiral.

[scourge165]

On 4/12/2025 at 7:33 AM, jross said:

Regardless, you are welcome.

Regardless...I didn't thank you...so that's odd. A little passive aggressive, eh Karen?
Or is it Chad in the male form?

[scourge165]

23 hours ago, BuckyBadger said:

Ok, so why did ten year treasury yields go up to 4.5?

There is something called the basis trade. Hedge funds borrow heavily to buy treasuries and sell a hedge like futures against the treasury. Because they borrow, or trade on margin to buy treasuries, they can get a margin call and be forced to sell their positions. As treasuries started selling off, everyone on the same side of this trade started getting margin calls, so there were forced to sell and it created a bit of a downward spiral.

I guess to put a finger point on it, it seems like there's a story now that there was a coordinated effort to sell these equities, now apparently lead by Mark Carney with EU and JAPAN a part of it as well, but presumably China as well, but it sound like they kinda...just beat Trump on this particular issue?

Was it particularly clever to be buying US Debt during Trump's lead into threats about tariffs with Canada or making Canada the 51st state?

[BuckyBadger]

2 hours ago, scourge165 said:

I guess to put a finger point on it, it seems like there's a story now that there was a coordinated effort to sell these equities, now apparently lead by Mark Carney with EU and JAPAN a part of it as well, but presumably China as well, but it sound like they kinda...just beat Trump on this particular issue?

Was it particularly clever to be buying US Debt during Trump's lead into threats about tariffs with Canada or making Canada the 51st state?

Are you saying Carney led a coordinated effort with US allies to sell US government debt? I have not seen anything like that, are you able to post it here?

[scourge165]

41 minutes ago, BuckyBadger said:

Are you saying Carney led a coordinated effort with US allies to sell US government debt? I have not seen anything like that, are you able to post it here?

I don't have a link, but the rumor is that Carney, who was the head of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada spoke with Japan and the EU, both of whom sold off substantially more US debt which led to the largest single day jump in years. It'd fallen to...IDK, 3.9% and then jumped up to 4.5%, but in one day went from 4.1 to 4.5%.

So I don't really know, nor do I think they'd advertise they did it, I was asking you as I thought you may be able to provide more insight into this. 

If it was just a given that the EU would choose to invest in more domestically and sell US Bonds, or that Japan would as well, then...this would have been anticipated...no?

https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/news/read/43762908/treasury_yields_rise?utm_source=chatgpt.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasuries-foreign-sell-gold-765ce81f?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Japan said they'd ruled it out...however I thought they'd sold a record amount last quarter. 

Hopefully you can piece this together better. 

 

*The 51st State was...more of a joke, I don't think anyone is taking that part seriously, it's just about the trade war. But, in the future, if that's the goal, wouldn't Countries just know how to get the US to back off?

Edited April 14 by scourge165

[pokemonster]

Engineer who manages other engineers. Good ole American manufacturing. 

[BuckyBadger]

On 4/13/2025 at 10:31 PM, scourge165 said:

I don't have a link, but the rumor is that Carney, who was the head of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada spoke with Japan and the EU, both of whom sold off substantially more US debt which led to the largest single day jump in years. It'd fallen to...IDK, 3.9% and then jumped up to 4.5%, but in one day went from 4.1 to 4.5%.

So I don't really know, nor do I think they'd advertise they did it, I was asking you as I thought you may be able to provide more insight into this. 

If it was just a given that the EU would choose to invest in more domestically and sell US Bonds, or that Japan would as well, then...this would have been anticipated...no?

https://investor.wedbush.com/wedbush/news/read/43762908/treasury_yields_rise?utm_source=chatgpt.com

https://www.barrons.com/articles/treasuries-foreign-sell-gold-765ce81f?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Japan said they'd ruled it out...however I thought they'd sold a record amount last quarter. 

Hopefully you can piece this together better. 

 

*The 51st State was...more of a joke, I don't think anyone is taking that part seriously, it's just about the trade war. But, in the future, if that's the goal, wouldn't Countries just know how to get the US to back off?

I don’t think there was a coordinated effort by central banks of allies like Canada and the EU to dump US treasuries. That would be a major event covered widely in the media.

I couldn’t access most of the articles you posted but from what I could read is that foreign money is simply being pulled from the US because the fear is the tariffs represent a real change in the World order that has existed for 3 generations now. The idea that the US is pulling away from their role as the global hegemon, that the reliability of the US as a financial partner (and in others ways too) is starting to change.

That concern is very real. If the idea that the US is not going to play the role it has since WWII then you probably will see foreign money continue to move out and eventually into China and other places.

Now who knows how far this goes. I don’t think any of what I’ve said above is inevitable. But I think Trump can’t walk this back and go back to business as usual. There has been real damage to the US reputation in the eyes of our allies. Even if he reverses course, it will take some time to undo the damage.

Edited April 15 by BuckyBadger