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Posted

Not every upset means the other guy's better overall/P4P.

 

1. Steveson

2. Starocci

3. Mesenbrink

4. Hendrickson

5. Keckeisen

6. Hamiti

7. O'Toole

8. Mendez

9. Buchanan

10. Haines

  • Bob 1
  • Duck 1
Posted
19 minutes ago, BAC said:

Not every upset means the other guy's better overall/P4P.

 

1. Steveson

2. Starocci

3. Mesenbrink

4. Hendrickson

5. Keckeisen

6. Hamiti

7. O'Toole

8. Mendez

9. Buchanan

10. Haines

I don't normally disagree much with your posts, but I have to here. Hendrickson beat Steveson straight up and exposed any small weaknesses in his game in the process, whether physical or mental, plus he has no other losses. He earned a spot ahead of Gable for those reasons. 

  • Brain 1
Posted
23 minutes ago, Pinnacle said:

I don't normally disagree much with your posts, but I have to here. Hendrickson beat Steveson straight up and exposed any small weaknesses in his game in the process, whether physical or mental, plus he has no other losses. He earned a spot ahead of Gable for those reasons. 

I'm not saying he didn't earn that win.  If I were doing "official" HWT rankings for Flo or whatever, I'd have Hendrickson at #1, because he won.  But if someone put a gun to my head and said "who's the best P4P wrestler in the NCAAs, if you get it wrong I'll blow your head off," I'm saying Gable.  I think Gable wins that match 8 or 9 times out of 10.  But it was Wyatt's night. 

If you ask me the best P4P wrestler of the '70-71 season, I'll say Gable, not Owings.  

  • Bob 1
Posted
12 hours ago, BAC said:

 I think Gable wins that match 8 or 9 times out of 10.  But it was Wyatt's night. 

They aren't wrestling 10 times though. They wrestled once this year. I've never seen a boxing pound for pound list where a guy who just lost is ahead of the guy that beat him. I don't know why that wouldn't apply to wrestling. 

Posted
14 hours ago, BAC said:

  I think Gable wins that match 8 or 9 times out of 10. 

Not sure why you'd think that.  It looked like Wyatt figured him out and it might be easier the next time.  

  • Brain 1

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Posted
2 minutes ago, ionel said:

Not sure why you'd think that.  It looked like Wyatt figured him out and it might be easier the next time.  

I agree with BAC - Gable probably wins if they go again - a lot of things went right for Wyaatt and he wrestled a great match.  I doubt we see it again in folkstyle but there is a good chance we get that matchup this year in FS - I like Gable's chances if they meet in FS.

Posted
1 hour ago, BarSeries said:

They aren't wrestling 10 times though. They wrestled once this year. I've never seen a boxing pound for pound list where a guy who just lost is ahead of the guy that beat him. I don't know why that wouldn't apply to wrestling. 

Maybe this is semantics.  I was assuming we're taking off the Hodge "single season only" blinders, and doing a REAL p4p ranking of the wrestlers who competed in 2024-25.  In other words, we aren't required to look ONLY at their record for THIS season, and magically forget about everything that happened before.  If we do it that way, obviously it's Gable.

I agree with you that if we're ranking athletes SOLELY by this season results, then Wyatt has to be ahead of Gable.  Just as Gable is behind Owings in '71, and Spencer Lee is 6th in '23.  The same is true if P4P rankings have to consider ONLY this season. 

But if instead we're saying, as of end of 24-25 season, who are the P4P best college wrestlers, based on everything you know, then you have to take into account Gable's past accomplishments, his Olympic title, the conventional wisdom that he's all-time HWT GOAT (or close to it), and Wyatt's comparatively modest accomplishments and prior losses.

Of course, Gable's history doesn't mean Wyatt couldn't possibly have surpassed Gable. If you watched that match and thought Wyatt is the better wrestler -- overall, not just on that day -- then Wyatt's ahead, P4P. But I think for most people, when you consider Gable's far stronger track record in conjunction with what you saw with your own eyes in that match -- e.g. Gable's domination until the very end -- one can reasonably conclude that the result, while earned, was a bit flukish, and probably not indicative of overall superiority. Just as you consider Lee's overall resume in evaluating '22-'23, Carter's 5 titles, etc.

Again, we do this in everything.  It's just using your brain.  Gable's never beaten Owings but no one ranks Owings over Gable in a P4P list, even as of '71. Lee hasn't beaten Ramos since getting pinned by him but few put Ramos higher, P4P.

And since you bring it up, it's the same in Boxing. Most still thought Tyson was best P4P even after the upset to Douglas. Same with Ali/Spinks, Louis/Schmeling, etc.  In boxing as in wrestling, sometimes the guy pulling the upset is legit better overall, but sometimes they just had the better night.

Posted
18 minutes ago, ionel said:

Not sure why you'd think that.  It looked like Wyatt figured him out and it might be easier the next time.  

If that's your perspective, then Wyatt is rightly higher on your P4P list.  But to my eyes, Gable had him outclassed, but made an error at the end that cost him.  Wyatt's hugely closed the gap, and may eventually surpass him, but if I were betting on a rematch, with 4-to-1 odds favoring Gable, I'd still bet Gable.

  • Confused 1
Posted
6 minutes ago, BAC said:

If that's your perspective, then Wyatt is rightly higher on your P4P list.  But to my eyes, Gable had him outclassed, but made an error at the end that cost him.  Wyatt's hugely closed the gap, and may eventually surpass him, but if I were betting on a rematch, with 4-to-1 odds favoring Gable, I'd still bet Gable.

In those next 9 matches Gable is not allowed to get in better shape, they wrestle who they are at time of finals.  That's what I think Wyatt exploits more in additional matches.  

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Posted
10 hours ago, BAC said:

Maybe this is semantics.  I was assuming we're taking off the Hodge "single season only" blinders, and doing a REAL p4p ranking of the wrestlers who competed in 2024-25.  In other words, we aren't required to look ONLY at their record for THIS season, and magically forget about everything that happened before.  If we do it that way, obviously it's Gable.

I agree with you that if we're ranking athletes SOLELY by this season results, then Wyatt has to be ahead of Gable.  Just as Gable is behind Owings in '71, and Spencer Lee is 6th in '23.  The same is true if P4P rankings have to consider ONLY this season. 

But if instead we're saying, as of end of 24-25 season, who are the P4P best college wrestlers, based on everything you know, then you have to take into account Gable's past accomplishments, his Olympic title, the conventional wisdom that he's all-time HWT GOAT (or close to it), and Wyatt's comparatively modest accomplishments and prior losses.

Of course, Gable's history doesn't mean Wyatt couldn't possibly have surpassed Gable. If you watched that match and thought Wyatt is the better wrestler -- overall, not just on that day -- then Wyatt's ahead, P4P. But I think for most people, when you consider Gable's far stronger track record in conjunction with what you saw with your own eyes in that match -- e.g. Gable's domination until the very end -- one can reasonably conclude that the result, while earned, was a bit flukish, and probably not indicative of overall superiority. Just as you consider Lee's overall resume in evaluating '22-'23, Carter's 5 titles, etc.

Again, we do this in everything.  It's just using your brain.  Gable's never beaten Owings but no one ranks Owings over Gable in a P4P list, even as of '71. Lee hasn't beaten Ramos since getting pinned by him but few put Ramos higher, P4P.

And since you bring it up, it's the same in Boxing. Most still thought Tyson was best P4P even after the upset to Douglas. Same with Ali/Spinks, Louis/Schmeling, etc.  In boxing as in wrestling, sometimes the guy pulling the upset is legit better overall, but sometimes they just had the better night.

I have no issue with your general thought process or coming away thinking Gable would win in a rematch. But to say that Gable dominated Wyatt and the win was a fluke is ... not supported by the evidence. 

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