Pablo Championship Probabilities

[Gene Mills Fan]

  On 3/17/2025 at 8:22 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Yes, for independent observations, like 10 individual weights, to get the expected total you just add the individual probabilities.

If you wanted to figure out the odds of all of them happening, you would multiple them all.

If you want to get the probability of each event from 0 wins to 10 wins you need to do an algebraic expansion of an equation that takes the form (Prob of event one +(1-Prob of event one)x)(prob of event two+(1-Prob of event two)...

The resulting factors in the expansion are the individual event odds.

Expand  

I looked at your seeds placement  by team graph and immediately  saw according to your data PSU should have 2.9 same as seed 2.9 better than seed and 4.2 to seed. i had fun picking which PSU wrestler would fill in the slots

 2.9 PSU wrestlers won't make their seed?     Lilledahl           Davis      Barlett

4.2 will do better                             Kerk      Bar   Van Ness   Haines

2.9 hit there seed                           Star    Mess  Kasak  

 

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 3/17/2025 at 8:32 PM, Gene Mills Fan said:

I looked at your seeds placement  by team graph and immediately  saw according to your data PSU should have 2.9 same as seed 2.9 better than seed and 4.2 to seed. i had fun picking which PSU wrestler would fill in the slots

 2.9 PSU wrestlers won't make their seed?     Lilledahl           Davis      Barlett

4.2 will do better                             Kerk      Bar   Van Ness   Haines

2.9 hit there seed                           Star    Mess  Kasak  

 

 

Expand  

I like it

[Pablo]

As these things go, I'd say Mesenbrink and Stevenson are overwhelming favorites.

 

I don't work in the gaming industry, but if this were going to odds, it would be something like 3 to 10 (remember that 1:1 odds mean 50/50)

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 3/17/2025 at 8:39 PM, Pablo said:

As these things go, I'd say Mesenbrink and Stevenson are overwhelming favorites.

 

I don't work in the gaming industry, but if this were going to odds, it would be something like 3 to 10 (remember that 1:1 odds mean 50/50)

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I have been swamped with stuff the last two days so haven't gotten into the detailed explanations as I much as I want to, but just want to say I love the stuff you are doing. It will be fun to see how this early iteration works this year.

[Wrestleknownothing]

Because we all like to score at home, here are the probabilities summed at the team level, sorted by expected finalists:

[Pablo]

OK, here's something I don't know how to do analytically, so I ran simulations

Penn St
# of winners	Probability
0	2.3%
1	14.7%
2	29.0%
3	29.7%
4	17.2%
5	5.8%
6	1.1%
7	0.1%

So >50% chance of Penn St having at least 3 champs, and 4 wouldn't be a surprise (nor would 1)

Iowa
# of winners	Probability
0	37.4%
1	43.4%
2	16.7%
3	2.4%
4	0.2%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

Iowa with a 2/3 chance of at least one champion.  Two wouldn't be a surprise, but a good chance they get shut out.

Oklahoma St
# of winners	Probability
0	55.1%
1	35.9%
2	8.2%
3	0.9%
4	0.0%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

Wouldn't be a surprise for OkSt to have a champ, but not expected.

I tire of simulating....

[Pablo]

Nebraska
# of winners	Probability
0	60.4%
1	35.2%
2	4.2%
3	0.2%
4	0.0%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

 

Minnesota
# of winners	Probability
0	24.5%
1	67.7%
2	7.6%
3	0.3%
4	0.0%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

 

Northern Iowa
# of winners	Probability
0	41.0%
1	52.6%
2	6.2%
3	0.2%
4	0.0%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

[Pablo]

So to summarize

Penn St: wouldn't be surprised if they have 1 - 4 winners

Iowa:  wouldn't be surprised if they have 0 - 2 winners

Oklahoma St: 0 - 1

Nebraska: 0 - 2

Minnesota: 0 - 1

Northern Iowa: 0 - 1

Edited Monday at 11:13 PM by Pablo

[Wrestleknownothing]

The simulations produce nearly identical results to the expansion.

[Wrestleknownothing]

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 3/17/2025 at 10:56 PM, Pablo said:

Nebraska
# of winners	Probability
0	60.4%
1	35.2%
2	4.2%
3	0.2%
4	0.0%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

 

Minnesota
# of winners	Probability
0	24.5%
1	67.7%
2	7.6%
3	0.3%
4	0.0%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

 

Northern Iowa
# of winners	Probability
0	41.0%
1	52.6%
2	6.2%
3	0.2%
4	0.0%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

Expand  

Nebraska looks off.

[Pablo]

  On 3/17/2025 at 11:06 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Nebraska looks off.

Expand  

Yeah, I had a 0 at 149.  That was important.

Nebraska
# of winners	Probability
0	41.6%
1	43.1%
2	13.9%
3	1.4%
4	0.1%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

Edited Monday at 11:09 PM by Pablo

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 3/17/2025 at 10:32 PM, Pablo said:

OK, here's something I don't know how to do analytically, so I ran simulations

Penn St
# of winners	Probability
0	2.3%
1	14.7%
2	29.0%
3	29.7%
4	17.2%
5	5.8%
6	1.1%
7	0.1%

So >50% chance of Penn St having at least 3 champs, and 4 wouldn't be a surprise (nor would 1)

Iowa
# of winners	Probability
0	37.4%
1	43.4%
2	16.7%
3	2.4%
4	0.2%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

Iowa with a 2/3 chance of at least one champion.  Two wouldn't be a surprise, but a good chance they get shut out.

Oklahoma St
# of winners	Probability
0	55.1%
1	35.9%
2	8.2%
3	0.9%
4	0.0%
5	0.0%
6	0.0%
7	0.0%

Wouldn't be a surprise for OkSt to have a champ, but not expected.

I tire of simulating....

Expand  

For comparison.

Our PSU numbers are nearly identical when I use field derived expectations.

But our Iowa probabilities are pretty different:

 

I think this means your model is predicting that PSU will perform about to the average for wrestlers with those seeds (which is below seed to be clear), and that Iowa will outperform the average for wrestlers with those seeds (which does not necessarily mean they will beat their seeds).

This is the opposite of recent history for both those teams. 

 

[Pablo]

OK, it won't let me edit my posts from yesterday, so I am going to repost with a more detailed format that includes their Pablo ranking and ratings.  Note that NR means that a wrestler does not have enough matches at the given weight (>5) to be included in my rankings.  However, I did list their rating.

Also, these might be a little different from what I posted above because I found a stack of matches that I had missed, and now they are included.  It doesn't change a lot at the top, but I think some of the lower ranked wrestlers are going to be affected some.

[Wrestleknownothing]

  On 3/18/2025 at 3:21 PM, Pablo said:

OK, it won't let me edit my posts from yesterday, so I am going to repost with a more detailed format that includes their Pablo ranking and ratings.  Note that NR means that a wrestler does not have enough matches at the given weight (>5) to be included in my rankings.  However, I did list their rating.

Also, these might be a little different from what I posted above because I found a stack of matches that I had missed, and now they are included.  It doesn't change a lot at the top, but I think some of the lower ranked wrestlers are going to be affected some.

Expand  

They give you 15 minutes to edit on this site. Not much.

[Pablo]

Ranking		125	Rating	Finals	Winner
1		125:Purdue_Matt Ramos	9122	0.486	0.361
2		125:Penn St_Luke Lilledahl	8505	0.340	0.157
7		125:Arizona St_Richard Figueroa	8190	0.207	0.079
6		125:Virginia Tech_Eddie Ventresca	8220	0.134	0.071
3		125:Wisconsin_Nicolar Rivera	8356	0.119	0.067
4		125:Oklahoma St_Troy Spratley	8317	0.121	0.067
5		125:West Virginia_Jett Strickenberger	8237	0.097	0.052
8		125:Nebraska_Caleb Smith	8020	0.136	0.047
9		125:NC St_Vince Robinson	7936	0.115	0.037
11		125:Lehigh_Sheldon Seymour	7695	0.060	0.016
12		125:Princeton_Marc-Anthony McGowan	7623	0.039	0.010
10		125:Northern Colorado_Stevo Poulin	7703	0.025	0.010
14		125:Rutgers_Dean Peterson	7493	0.033	0.008
13		125:Ohio St_Brendan McCrone	7532	0.030	0.007
16		125:Northern Illinois_Blake West	7259	0.014	0.003
17		125:Pennsylvania_Max Gallagher	7248	0.014	0.003
18		125:Indiana_Jacob Moran	7228	0.005	0.001
22		125:Oklahoma_Antonio Lorenzo	7072	0.009	0.001
21		125:North Carolina_Spencer Moore	7116	0.005	0.001
19		125:Oregon St_Maximo Renteria	7183	0.004	0.001
25		125:Minnesota_Cooper Flynn	6946	0.003	0.001
36		125:Army_Charlie Farmer	6555	0.001	0.000
29		125:Northern Iowa_Trever Anderson	6707	0.001	0.000
32		125:South Dakota St_Tanner Jordan	6676	0.001	0.000
43		125:Iowa_Joey Cruz	6357	0.001	0.000
39		125:North Dakota St_tristan daugherty	6476	0.000	0.000
47		125:Pittsburgh_Nick Babin	6244	0.000	0.000
44		125:Virginia_Keyveon Roller	6300	0.000	0.000
53		125:Cal Poly_Koda Holeman	6088	0.000	0.000
56		125:Cornell_Marcello Milani	6044	0.000	0.000
58		125:CSU Bakersfield_Richard Castro-Sandoval	6033	0.000	0.000
67		125:The Citadel_Gylon Sims	5746	0.000	0.000
73		125:Michigan St_Caleb Weiand	5611	0.000	0.000

[Pablo]

Ranking		133	Rating	Finals	Winner
1		133:Illinois_Lucas Byrd	8504	0.434	0.294
2		133:Iowa_Drake Ayala	8122	0.282	0.154
3		133:Little Rock_Nasir Bailey	8101	0.264	0.143
5		133:Northern Colorado_Dominick Serrano	7782	0.157	0.078
6		133:Virginia Tech_Connor McGonagle	7693	0.117	0.051
7		133:Ohio St_Nic Bouzakis	7585	0.095	0.039
11		133:Cal Poly_Zeth Romney	7510	0.079	0.034
14		133:Stanford_Tyler Knox	7460	0.068	0.028
10		133:Penn St_Braeden Davis	7517	0.063	0.027
12		133:Iowa St_Evan Frost	7481	0.068	0.026
9		133:Maryland_Braxton Brown	7550	0.057	0.025
13		133:Nebraska_Jacob Van Dee	7462	0.043	0.018
18		133:Rutgers_Dylan Shawver	7176	0.042	0.013
17		133:Indiana_Angelo Rini	7186	0.032	0.011
16		133:North Dakota St_Kyle Burwick	7286	0.027	0.010
19		133:Wisconsin_Zan Fugitt	7141	0.031	0.010
20		133:Lock Haven_Anthony Noto	7139	0.028	0.009
21		133:Northern Iowa_Julian Farber	7041	0.021	0.006
NR		133:NC St_Kai Orine	6973	0.018	0.005
25		133:North Carolina_Ethan Oakley	6866	0.012	0.003
23		133:Pennsylvania_Ryan Miller	6981	0.010	0.003
24		133:Minnesota_Tyler Wells	6876	0.012	0.003
27		133:Gardner-Webb_Takeo Davis	6720	0.008	0.002
29		133:Chattanooga_Blake Boarman	6707	0.007	0.002
32		133:Army_Ethan Berginc	6645	0.006	0.001
30		133:Bucknell_Kurt Phipps	6669	0.004	0.001
35		133:Cornell_Tyler Ferrara	6577	0.005	0.001
33		133:South Dakota St_Derrick Cardinal	6598	0.005	0.001
40		133:Missouri_Kade Moore	6456	0.003	0.001
45		133:Central Michigan_Sean Spidle	6363	0.003	0.000
51		133:Edinboro_Colton Camacho	6204	0.001	0.000
55		133:Cal Baptist_Hunter Leake	6031	0.000	0.000
121		133:Michigan_Nolan Wertanen	4597	0.000	0.000

[Pablo]

Ranking		141	Rating	Finals	Winner
2		141:Nebraska_Brock Hardy	9225	0.504	0.307
1		141:Ohio St_Jesse Mendez	9273	0.447	0.284
3		141:Penn St_Beau Bartlett	8613	0.187	0.089
7		141:Northern Iowa_Cael Happel	8436	0.191	0.079
5		141:Minnesota_Vance Vombaur	8466	0.134	0.059
6		141:Oklahoma St_Tagen Jamison	8462	0.120	0.052
8		141:Northern Colorado_Andrew Alirez	8344	0.132	0.051
10		141:Navy_Josh Koderhandt	7979	0.091	0.028
11		141:Pennsylvania_CJ Composto	7977	0.039	0.013
9		141:Michigan_Sergio Lemley	8021	0.038	0.013
12		141:Iowa St_Jacob Frost	7877	0.034	0.009
13		141:Rutgers_Joesph Oliveri	7742	0.022	0.006
15		141:Virginia Tech_Sam Latona	7481	0.020	0.004
16		141:Lock Haven_Wyatt Henson	7370	0.011	0.002
19		141:Virginia_Dylan Cedeno	7227	0.005	0.001
27		141:Cornell_Joshua Saunders	6932	0.005	0.001
20		141:Columbia_Lorenzo Frezza	7155	0.002	0.000
22		141:Stanford_Jason Miranda	7056	0.002	0.000
21		141:Princeton_Eligh Rivera	7087	0.002	0.000
30		141:Gardner-Webb_Todd Carter	6764	0.003	0.000
24		141:Purdue_Greyson Clark	7007	0.002	0.000
29		141:Bucknell_Dylan Chappell	6834	0.002	0.000
23		141:Missouri_Josh Edmond	7009	0.002	0.000
31		141:Illinois_Danny Pucino	6747	0.001	0.000
28		141:South Dakota St_Julian Tagg	6842	0.001	0.000
40		141:North Carolina_Jayden Scott	6557	0.001	0.000
33		141:Drexel_Jordan Soriano	6716	0.001	0.000
34		141:Oklahoma_Mosha Schwartz	6716	0.000	0.000
38		141:West Virginia_Jordan Titus	6571	0.000	0.000
36		141:Pittsburgh_Briar Priest	6639	0.000	0.000
45		141:Campbell_Shannon Hanna	6450	0.000	0.000
53		141:Oregon St_Nash Singleton	6267	0.000	0.000
73		141:Bellarmine_aj rallo	5749	0.000	0.000

[Pablo]

Rank		149	Rating	Finals	Winner
1		149:Nebraska_Ridge Lovett	9400	0.464	0.319
2		149:Virginia Tech_Caleb Henson	9141	0.511	0.268
3		149:Penn St_Shayne Van Ness	9115	0.329	0.205
5		149:Iowa_Kyle Parco	8442	0.217	0.077
7		149:Illinois_Kannon Webster	8280	0.064	0.027
9		149:North Carolina_Lachlan McNeil	8187	0.052	0.021
11		149:Pennsylvania_Cross Wasilewski	7866	0.060	0.014
12		149:Oregon St_Ethan Stiles	7853	0.058	0.013
10		149:Northern Iowa_Colin Realbuto	7968	0.032	0.011
16		149:Little Rock_jordan williams	7734	0.044	0.009
13		149:Rider_Sammy Alvarez	7846	0.024	0.008
17		149:Ohio St_Dylan D`Emilio	7613	0.038	0.007
14		149:Cal Poly_Chance Lamer	7780	0.017	0.005
18		149:Stanford_Jaden Abas	7605	0.028	0.005
20		149:Iowa St_Paniro Johnson	7463	0.026	0.004
15		149:Princeton_Ty Whalen	7776	0.013	0.004
NR		149:Oklahoma St_Teague Travis	7185	0.004	0.001
25		149:NC St_Koy Buesgens	6919	0.004	0.000
22		149:George Mason_Kaden Cassidy	7131	0.002	0.000
28		149:Virginia_Jack Gioffre	6858	0.004	0.000
23		149:Cornell_Ethan Fernandez	6999	0.001	0.000
35		149:Lehigh_Malyke Hines	6726	0.002	0.000
34		149:Oklahoma_Willie McDougald	6733	0.002	0.000
36		149:Central Michigan_Mason Shrader	6726	0.002	0.000
27		149:Rutgers_Andrew Clark	6875	0.001	0.000
32		149:North Dakota St_Gavin Drexler	6754	0.000	0.000
38		149:Army_Trae McDaniel	6628	0.001	0.000
33		149:Wyoming_Gabe Willochell	6743	0.000	0.000
48		149:Michigan_Dylan Gilcher	6338	0.000	0.000
39		149:Northwestern_Sam Cartella	6584	0.000	0.000
46		149:Maryland_Kal Miller	6441	0.000	0.000
64		149:The Citadel_Carson DesRosier	6044	0.000	0.000
76		149:Campbell_Wynton Denkins	5733	0.000	0.000

[Pablo]

Ranking		157	Rating	Finals	Winner
1		157:Cornell_Meyer Shapiro	9442	0.601	0.416
2		157:Penn St_Tyler Kasak	9139	0.550	0.310
3		157:Ohio St_Brandon Cannon	8312	0.151	0.056
4		157:Nebraska_Antrell Taylor	8242	0.107	0.043
6		157:Virginia Tech_Rafael Hipolito Jr	8085	0.109	0.035
8		157:Purdue_Joey Blaze	8031	0.078	0.024
9		157:Northern Iowa_Ryder Downey	8018	0.061	0.022
11		157:Northern Colorado_Vinny Zerban	7978	0.054	0.019
7		157:Iowa_Jacori Teemer	8073	0.043	0.016
13		157:Little Rock_Matty Bianchi	7931	0.038	0.013
14		157:NC St_Ed Scott	7840	0.029	0.009
16		157:Northwestern_Trevor Chumbley	7684	0.037	0.009
19		157:Minnesota_Tommy Askey	7578	0.024	0.005
18		157:Maryland_Ethen Miller	7580	0.018	0.005
20		157:Pennsylvania_Jude Swisher	7550	0.016	0.004
23		157:Oklahoma St_Caleb Fish	7394	0.018	0.003
22		157:South Dakota St_Cobe Siebrecht	7445	0.012	0.003
24		157:Iowa St_Cody Chittum	7286	0.010	0.002
21		157:Central Michigan_Johnny Lovett	7469	0.007	0.002
25		157:Michigan_Chase Saldate	7226	0.006	0.001
26		157:Pittsburgh_Dylan Evans	7125	0.006	0.001
28		157:Oregon St_CJ Hamblin	7078	0.005	0.001
29		157:George Mason_DJ Mcgee	7057	0.004	0.001
27		157:Brown_Blake Saito	7086	0.003	0.001
30		157:North Carolina_Sonny Santiago	6940	0.003	0.000
33		157:Wyoming_Jared Hill	6871	0.003	0.000
31		157:Missouri_James Conway	6936	0.002	0.000
35		157:Lehigh_Logan Rozynski	6794	0.002	0.000
32		157:Stanford_Grigor Cholakyan	6895	0.002	0.000
37		157:Columbia_Richard Fedalen	6730	0.001	0.000
38		157:Chattanooga_Noah Castillo	6715	0.000	0.000
48		157:Harvard_James Harrington	6399	0.000	0.000
49		157:Northern Illinois_Landen Johnson	6387	0.000	0.000

[Pablo]

Ranking		165	Rating	Finals	Winner
1		165:Penn St_Mitchell Mesenbrink	11019	0.924	0.761
2		165:Iowa_Mike Caliendo	9937	0.666	0.188
3		165:West Virginia_Peyton Hall	8938	0.181	0.023
5		165:Utah Valley_Terrell Barraclough	8480	0.029	0.008
4		165:Missouri_Cam Steed	8572	0.017	0.005
10		165:Cornell_Julian Ramirez	8194	0.014	0.003
9		165:Arizona St_Nicco Ruiz	8334	0.038	0.003
8		165:Oklahoma St_Cameron Amine	8378	0.010	0.003
11		165:Minnesota_Andrew Sparks	8097	0.037	0.002
12		165:Michigan_Beau Mantanona	8067	0.033	0.002
13		165:South Dakota St_Drake Rhodes	7927	0.014	0.001
16		165:Illinois_Braeden Scoles	7719	0.014	0.001
15		165:Nebraska_Christopher Minto	7722	0.003	0.000
18		165:Army_Gunner Filipowicz	7597	0.002	0.000
17		165:Stanford_Hunter Garvin	7630	0.007	0.000
19		165:Ohio St_Paddy Gallagher	7497	0.005	0.000
23		165:Little Rock_Joseph Bianchi	7229	0.001	0.000
20		165:Northwestern_Maxx Mayfield	7337	0.001	0.000
22		165:Northern Iowa_Jack Thomsen	7246	0.001	0.000
21		165:Iowa St_Aiden Riggins	7280	0.001	0.000
26		165:Appalachian St_Will Miller	7003	0.000	0.000
31		165:Bucknell_Noah Mulvaney	6844	0.000	0.000
28		165:Columbia_Cesar Alvan	6961	0.000	0.000
32		165:NC St_Derek Fields	6656	0.000	0.000
33		165:Indiana_Tyler Lillard	6636	0.000	0.000
34		165:Virginia Tech_Mac Church	6606	0.000	0.000
30		165:Virginia_Nick Hamilton	6854	0.000	0.000
39		165:Hofstra_Kyle Mosher	6508	0.000	0.000
35		165:Pittsburgh_Jared Keslar	6589	0.000	0.000
47		165:Rider_Enrique Munguia	6290	0.000	0.000
46		165:The Citadel_Thomas Snipes	6298	0.000	0.000
58		165:Wisconsin_Cody Goebel	5996	0.000	0.000
100		165:Central Michigan_Chandler Amaker	5249	0.000	0.000

[Pablo]

Ranking		174	Rating	Finals	Winner
1		174:Missouri_Keegan O`Toole	10086	0.644	0.364
2		174:Penn St_Levi Haines	10025	0.505	0.307
3		174:Oklahoma St_Dean Hamiti Jr	9903	0.379	0.220
5		174:Nebraska_Lenny Pinto	8876	0.083	0.023
4		174:Iowa_Patrick Kennedy	8922	0.061	0.022
6		174:Ohio St_Carson Kharchla	8835	0.069	0.018
8		174:Ohio University_Garrett Thompson	8446	0.050	0.010
7		174:Illinois_Dan Braunagel	8504	0.043	0.009
10		174:North Carolina_Joshua Ogunsanya	8314	0.032	0.005
11		174:South Dakota St_Cade DeVos	8306	0.024	0.004
13		174:Cornell_Simon Ruiz	8176	0.027	0.004
9		174:Binghamton_Brevin Cassella	8355	0.015	0.004
15		174:Navy_Danny Wask	8120	0.015	0.003
12		174:Pittsburgh_Luca Augustine	8199	0.009	0.002
14		174:Stanford_Lorenzo Norman	8135	0.013	0.002
17		174:Bucknell_Myles Takats	7999	0.012	0.002
16		174:NC St_Matthew Singleton	8042	0.005	0.001
19		174:Oklahoma_Gaven Sax	7914	0.003	0.001
20		174:Iowa St_MJ Gaitan	7705	0.004	0.001
21		174:Northern Iowa_Jared Simma	7686	0.001	0.000
24		174:Minnesota_Clayton Whiting	7338	0.001	0.000
22		174:Virginia Tech_Lennox Wolak	7455	0.001	0.000
26		174:Little Rock_Tyler Brennan	7248	0.001	0.000
32		174:Central Michigan_Alex Cramer	7146	0.000	0.000
23		174:Pennsylvania_Nick Incontrera	7339	0.000	0.000
25		174:Rutgers_Jackson Turley	7258	0.000	0.000
42		174:Purdue_Brody Baumann	6905	0.000	0.000
34		174:Army_Dalton Harkins	7102	0.000	0.000
37		174:Drexel_Jasiah Queen	7007	0.000	0.000
38		174:Lock Haven_Avery Bassett	7004	0.000	0.000
40		174:Chattanooga_Sergio Desiante	6961	0.000	0.000
46		174:Maryland_Branson John	6715	0.000	0.000
48		174:Columbia_Jack McGill	6656	0.000	0.000

[Pablo]

Ranking		184	Rating	Finals	Winner
1		184:Northern Iowa_Parker Keckeisen	10360	0.839	0.547
2		184:Penn St_Carter Starocci	10026	0.763	0.364
3		184:Oklahoma St_Dustin Plott	8981	0.145	0.036
4		184:Minnesota_Max McEnelly	8901	0.116	0.036
6		184:South Dakota St_Bennett Berge	8449	0.058	0.009
8		184:Cornell_Chris Foca	8117	0.020	0.003
11		184:Maryland_Jaxon Smith	7770	0.010	0.001
9		184:Iowa St_Evan Bockman	7825	0.009	0.001
10		184:Iowa_Gabe Arnold	7773	0.007	0.001
12		184:Nebraska_Silas Allred	7691	0.007	0.001
14		184:NC St_Dylan Fishback	7608	0.005	0.001
15		184:Pittsburgh_Reece Heller	7541	0.006	0.000
13		184:Oklahoma_Deanthony Parker Jr	7667	0.004	0.000
18		184:Illinois_Edmond Ruth	7289	0.003	0.000
16		184:Wyoming_Eddie Neitenbach	7503	0.002	0.000
19		184:Rider_Isaac Dean	7243	0.002	0.000
21		184:Ohio St_Ryder Rogotzke	7179	0.002	0.000
22		184:Indiana_Donnell Washington	7104	0.001	0.000
26		184:North Carolina_Gavin Kane	6928	0.001	0.000
25		184:Edinboro_Jared McGill	6939	0.001	0.000
28		184:North Dakota St_Aidan Brenot	6793	0.000	0.000
23		184:Princeton_Kole Mulhauser	7008	0.000	0.000
30		184:Hofstra_Ross McFarland	6612	0.000	0.000
33		184:Rutgers_Shane Cartagena-Walsh	6567	0.000	0.000
32		184:Missouri_Colton Hawks	6591	0.000	0.000
36		184:Pennsylvania_Maximus Hale	6493	0.000	0.000
37		184:George Mason_Malachi DuVall	6491	0.000	0.000
35		184:Columbia_Nick Fine	6528	0.000	0.000
42		184:Bellarmine_Devan Hendricks	6259	0.000	0.000
43		184:Lock Haven_Colin Fegley	6233	0.000	0.000
46		184:West Virginia_Dennis Robin	6210	0.000	0.000
53		184:Lehigh_Caden Rogers	5982	0.000	0.000
76		184:Oregon St_TJ McDonnell	5474	0.000	0.000

[Pablo]

Ranking		197	Rating	Finals	Winner
2		197:Iowa_Stephen Buchanan	10095	0.743	0.389
1		197:Penn St_Josh Barr	10336	0.565	0.367
3		197:Michigan_Jacob Cardenas	9822	0.335	0.177
5		197:CSU Bakersfield_AJ Ferrari	8749	0.110	0.024
6		197:Illinois_Zac Braunagel	8688	0.034	0.009
13		197:Pittsburgh_Mac Stout	8284	0.048	0.007
7		197:Lehigh_Michael Beard	8519	0.022	0.005
11		197:Minnesota_Isaiah Salazar	8322	0.033	0.005
8		197:Little Rock_stephen little	8473	0.018	0.004
15		197:Northern Iowa_Wyatt Voelker	8172	0.028	0.004
18		197:Princeton_Luke Stout	8059	0.023	0.003
14		197:Oklahoma St_Luke Surber	8222	0.009	0.002
9		197:Nebraska_Camden McDanel	8402	0.007	0.002
10		197:Oregon St_Trey Munoz	8325	0.005	0.001
19		197:Northwestern_Evan Bates	7969	0.004	0.001
21		197:South Dakota St_Zach Glazier	7642	0.007	0.001
22		197:Wyoming_Joseph Novak	7435	0.003	0.000
24		197:West Virginia_Ian Bush	7413	0.002	0.000
26		197:Ohio St_Seth Shumate	7204	0.001	0.000
32		197:Virginia Tech_Andy Smith	7049	0.001	0.000
25		197:Stanford_Nikolas Stemmet	7283	0.000	0.000
33		197:Drexel_Mickey O'Malley	6991	0.001	0.000
28		197:Indiana_Gabe Sollars	7177	0.000	0.000
30		197:The Citadel_Patrick Brophy	7157	0.000	0.000
34		197:Michigan St_Remy Cotton	6989	0.000	0.000
39		197:Bucknell_Dillon Bechtold	6673	0.000	0.000
35		197:Campbell_Levi Hopkins	6937	0.000	0.000
49		197:Cornell_Michael Dellagatta	6284	0.000	0.000
41		197:Army_Wolfgang Frable	6580	0.000	0.000
45		197:Navy_Payton Thomas	6466	0.000	0.000
42		197:Appalachian St_Carson Floyd	6577	0.000	0.000
51		197:Rider_Brock Zurawski	6214	0.000	0.000
44		197:Lock Haven_Tucker Hogan	6490	0.000	0.000

[Pablo]

Ranking		285	Rating	Finals	Winner
1		285:Minnesota_Gable Steveson	11386	0.936	0.729
2		285:Oklahoma St_Wyatt Hendrickson	10528	0.489	0.158
3		285:Penn St_Greg Kerkvliet	10022	0.350	0.078
4		285:NC St_Isaac Trumble	9723	0.133	0.023
7		285:Lehigh_Owen Trephan	8658	0.021	0.003
6		285:Ohio St_Nick Feldman	8718	0.018	0.003
5		285:Michigan_Joshua Heindselman	8767	0.023	0.002
9		285:Arizona St_Cohlton Schultz	8497	0.009	0.001
11		285:Iowa_Ben Kueter	8293	0.007	0.001
12		285:Illinois_Luke Luffman	8264	0.005	0.000
14		285:Rutgers_Yaraslau Slavikouski	8110	0.002	0.000
10		285:Virginia Tech_Jimmy Mullen	8299	0.004	0.000
16		285:Maryland_Seth Nevills	7847	0.002	0.000
15		285:Pittsburgh_Dayton Pitzer	7875	0.001	0.000
20		285:Indiana_Jacob Bullock	7481	0.000	0.000
18		285:Cal Poly_Trevor Tinker	7608	0.000	0.000
21		285:Army_Brady Colbert	7437	0.000	0.000
25		285:South Dakota St_Luke Rasmussen	7004	0.000	0.000
30		285:Iowa St_Daniel Herrera	6850	0.000	0.000
24		285:Binghamton_Cory Day	7013	0.000	0.000
35		285:Ohio University_Jordan Greer	6746	0.000	0.000
27		285:Lock Haven_Gavin Hoffman	6958	0.000	0.000
31		285:North Carolina_Nolan Neves	6801	0.000	0.000
37		285:Cornell_Ashton Davis	6585	0.000	0.000
32		285:Purdue_Hayden Filipovich	6796	0.000	0.000
28		285:Stanford_Peter Ming	6899	0.000	0.000
33		285:Cleveland St_Daniel Bucknavich	6794	0.000	0.000
34		285:Northern Iowa_Lance Runyon	6789	0.000	0.000
41		285:Duke_Connor Barket	6488	0.000	0.000
44		285:Michigan St_Max Vanadia	6273	0.000	0.000
48		285:CSU Bakersfield_Jake Andrews	6089	0.000	0.000
57		285:Wyoming_Sam Mitchell	5817	0.000	0.000
77		285:Appalachian St_Stephan Monchery	5431	0.000	0.000