Seed vs. Place

[cowcards]

Since seeding is such a big topic around here the last couple days, figured I would give you guys this chart that shows the count of how many times a seed has finished in each place (or not placed) for D1. 

*Note-This isn't perfect as there are years where I don't have all the seeds.  

Left column is the seed (blue) and top column is the place (orange). NS=No Seed & DNP = Did Not Place

Seed/Place	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	DNP
1	406	143	97	39	25	10	10	1	63
2	164	236	99	76	40	20	9	6	135
3	72	137	139	105	60	49	26	7	191
4	49	65	122	110	69	61	27	15	255
5	21	33	79	73	70	58	43	14	291
6	24	43	57	54	62	61	32	21	332
7	3	25	22	34	54	45	45	35	301
8	11	12	16	27	41	34	56	35	330
9	3	6	15	18	26	26	36	38	318
10	1	7	6	25	21	31	29	28	335
11	1	4	6	13	18	22	20	43	329
12	1	1	6	9	8	16	18	37	355
13	1		2	1		2	3	6	131
14		1		1	2	5	1	4	131
15		2	1	1	2	5	6	3	125
16					1		1	4	131
17						2	2	1	56
18								1	59
19								1	59
20						1			59
21						1		1	58
22									60
23								1	59
24									60
25			1					1	58
26						1	1	2	56
27							1		59
28								1	59
29									60
30									60
31									60
32									60
33								1	57
NS	132	174	221	207	115	164	84	142	14225

[okokzach]

3rd, 4th, and 5th seeds most frequently place 3rd!

[MizzouFan01]

The lone 13th seed to win it all, Cody Brewer. Pretty wild 10-13 has only had 1 champ per seed over all these years. 

[wrestle87]

This is both fascinating and instructive.  It’s almost like there’s a reason coaches go to bat so hard during seeding meetings.  Almost like that sh*t really matters!

[666]

I'd say the chart above shows the seeding is usually pretty solid. How far back does it go? 

I can still remember at least one #1 seed that didn't place, Max Askren. He went 28-2 over the regular season, won a Big 12 title, and then lost 2 straight at NCAAs. I was happy for him that he finally won a title his Sr year. 

[cowcards]

6 hours ago, 666 said:

I'd say the chart above shows the seeding is usually pretty solid. How far back does it go? 

I can still remember at least one #1 seed that didn't place, Max Askren. He went 28-2 over the regular season, won a Big 12 title, and then lost 2 straight at NCAAs. I was happy for him that he finally won a title his Sr year. 

Since the beginning of ncaa wrestling time 

[maligned]

7 hours ago, okokzach said:

3rd, 4th, and 5th seeds most frequently place 3rd!

If they place. Most frequently DNP, though, overall.

[cowcards]

5 minutes ago, maligned said:

If they place. Most frequently DNP, though, overall.

They are more likely to place. DNP is higher because there are a lot more spots (9-33) to land in all grouped together. It looks a little misleading. 

[maligned]

7 hours ago, wrestle87 said:

This is both fascinating and instructive.  It’s almost like there’s a reason coaches go to bat so hard during seeding meetings.  Almost like that sh*t really matters!

I know the point you're making, but I'm not sure fighting for the seed matters that much. I think you have your causality backwards. 1s and 2s win more because they're the best wrestlers and make the number next to their name look correct, not the other way around. Usually the best wrestlers are identifiable and get the highest seeds. Then they usually win.

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, maligned said:

If they place. Most frequently DNP, though, overall.

That is very time frame dependent as the full lookback includes periods where DNP started with 4th place, 5th place, 7th place, and 9th place at various times.

[maligned]

Just now, cowcards said:

They are more likely to place. DNP is higher because there are a lot more spots (9-33) to land in all grouped together. It looks a little misleading. 

He identified 3rd place as the most frequent landing spot for the 3 to 5 seeds. In fact, DNP is the single most likely landing spot if that's what we're considering. But, yes, collectively, placing is more frequent than not for those seeds.

[maligned]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

That is very time frame dependent as the full lookback includes periods where DNP started with 4th place, 5th place, 7th place, and 9th place at various times.

True

[scorenomore]

Thanks for posting this.  Am I thinking of this right - total number 14,225/33 = 431, then divide by 10 weight classes so is this data for 43 years?  Pretty impressive!

Any chance to cut this down to like the last 15 years and recast?

[maligned]

@cowcards I LOVE this table. I'd be curious to see it with only the 6 years of 33 seeds included. Or the 14 or 15 years since at least Top 16 were seeded. 

[maligned]

2 minutes ago, scorenomore said:

Thanks for posting this.  Am I thinking of this right - total number 14,225/33 = 431, then divide by 10 weight classes so is this data for 43 years?  Pretty impressive!

Any chance to cut this down to like the last 15 years and recast?

Beat me to it!

[maligned]

20 minutes ago, cowcards said:

 

Since 33 seeds started in 2019:

 

Seeds/Place	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	DNP
1	24	13	7	1		2	1		12
2	10	17	5	4	5	3	1	1	14
3	7	6	6	8	7	5	3	3	15
4	3	2	12	9	3	9	2	2	18
5		4	6	7	5	2	6	2	28
6	2	4	5	5	6	5	5		28
7		1	1	2	10	5	4	5	32
8	3		1	4	4	4	7	2	35
9	1		1	2	3	2	8	4	39
10		2	1	5	1	3	3	7	38
11			1	2	3		1	8	45
12			2	1		2	1	3	51
13						1	2		57
14					2	1	1	1	55
15		1	1			2	1	1	54
16					1			1	58
17						1	2	1	56
18								1	59
19								1	59
20						1			59
21						1		1	58
22									60
23								1	59
24									60
25			1					1	58
26						1	1	2	56
27							1		59
28								1	59
29									60
30									60
31									60
32									60
33								1	57

Wait, confused...2019 to 2024 is 6 years, but there was no tournament in 2020. You have 60 weights worth of results for 6 years x 10 weights. What am I misunderstanding?

Edited 6 hours ago by maligned

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 minute ago, maligned said:

Wait, confused...2019 to 2024 is 6 years, but there was no tournament in 2020?

There have been 5 tournaments of 33 seeds (2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024)

And five tournaments of 16 seeds (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018)

 

 

[maligned]

17 minutes ago, maligned said:

Wait, confused...2019 to 2024 is 6 years, but there was no tournament in 2020. You have 60 weights worth of results for 6 years x 10 weights. What am I misunderstanding?

 

12 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

There have been 5 tournaments of 33 seeds (2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024)

And five tournaments of 16 seeds (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018)

 

 

I think maybe he's got 10 extra DNPs for every seed in the 2019 to 2024 chart (giving everyone a DNP in 2020)?

@cowcards Thoughts?

[Wrestleknownothing]

Just now, maligned said:

 

I think maybe he's got 10 extra DNPs for every seed in the 2019 to 2024 chart (giving everyone a DNP in 2020)?

@cowcards Thoughts?

Ahh. Now I get it. Probably right. I have occassionally forgotten to apply that filter and then wonder why the results look off.

[maligned]

2 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Ahh. Now I get it. Probably right. I have occassionally forgotten to apply that filter and then wonder why the results look off.

But you're right about pre-2014 as well. The 2010-2018, 16-seed chart should only have 50 results for each of seeds 13 to 16.

[cowcards]

21 minutes ago, maligned said:

 

I think maybe he's got 10 extra DNPs for every seed in the 2019 to 2024 chart (giving everyone a DNP in 2020)?

@cowcards Thoughts?

Correct. Let me fix that. 

[cowcards]

Fixed 2019-2024 with 33 seeds, taking out the 2020 canceled tournament:
 

Seeds/Place	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	DNP
1	24	13	7	1		2	1		2
2	10	17	5	4	5	3	1	1	4
3	7	6	6	8	7	5	3	3	5
4	3	2	12	9	3	9	2	2	8
5		4	6	7	5	2	6	2	18
6	2	4	5	5	6	5	5		18
7		1	1	2	10	5	4	5	22
8	3		1	4	4	4	7	2	25
9	1		1	2	3	2	8	4	29
10		2	1	5	1	3	3	7	28
11			1	2	3		1	8	35
12			2	1		2	1	3	41
13						1	2		47
14					2	1	1	1	45
15		1	1			2	1	1	44
16					1			1	48
17						1	2	1	46
18								1	49
19								1	49
20						1			49
21						1		1	48
22									50
23								1	49
24									50
25			1					1	48
26						1	1	2	46
27							1		49
28								1	49
29									50
30									50
31									50
32									50
33								1	47

Edited 6 hours ago by cowcards

[cowcards]

30 minutes ago, maligned said:

But you're right about pre-2014 as well. The 2010-2018, 16-seed chart should only have 50 results for each of seeds 13 to 16.

Fixed the 16 seed chart. Trying to do too many things at once and failing at them all. I didn't do my sanity checks before and just slung around data all willy nilly like. 

Seeds/Place	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	DNP
1	25	11	9	2	3
2	8	15	8	2	6	1	1	2	7
3	9	7	6	9	3	4	4		8
4	4	4	6	10	3	6	2	1	14
5	2	1	4	7	5	7	5		19
6		4	3	3	3	7	4	1	25
7		2	2	1	8	5	6	4	22
8		1	3	4	5	1	6	5	25
9		1	2	4	2	1	3	5	32
10			2	1	1	5	5	3	33
11	1	1	1	1		5	2	3	36
12					3		2	5	40
13	1		2	1			1	6	39
14		1		1		3		3	42
15		1		1	2	2	2		42
16				1			1	3	45
NS		1	2	2	6	3	6	9	821

[maligned]

So in the last 10 tournaments, 100 weight classes, all with 16+ seeds...

Half of champs are #1's. 

One third of champs are 2's & 3's.

90% of champs are 1-4's.

Frequency of placing by seed:

1 - 96%

2 - 89%

3 - 87%

4 - 78%

5 - 63%

6 - 57%

7 - 56%

8 - 50%

9 - 39%

10 - 39%

11 - 29%

12 - 19%

13 - 14%

14 - 13%

15 - 14%

16 - 7%

All others: 2.8%