Penn State predictions as of 2/4

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

125 Davis 7th - a very good true freshman season.  The bright lights get to him a bit so he doesn't place higher.  Still good enough to AA.

133 Nagao 5th - he turns it on at NCAAs but inconsistency in neutral lands him at 5th, again

141 Bartlett 2nd - loses a tight final to Woods

149 Kasak 2-2 - He's been doing well but drops a match early and his lack of size at 149 catches up to him in March.

157 Haines 3rd - Hasn't looked as dominant this year, still AAs again.

165 Mesenbrink 3rd - Super loaded weight, his struggles on bottom prevent him from reaching the finals.

174 Starocci 1st - although he won't bonus in the finals this year.  I could see Welch as his finals opponent

184 Truax 4th - Consistent as usual, not enough neutral offense to beat the very top guys at the weight.

197 Brooks 1st - Wins the Hodge in dominant fashion

HWT Kerk 1st - Bonus in the finals, dominant tournament

Penn State finishes with 9 AAs, 3 champs and 4 finalists.  Penn State obviously wins the team title comfortably.  Michigan takes second. 

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Sucks that your account got hacked.

[macwoodfleet]

125: Davis (5th). Who knows at this weight. Could win! Could go 1-2! split the difference somewhat. 

133: Nagao (4th) think he turns it on like SVN did last year, finishes a few more shots. 

141: BB (1st) Has he been awesome? No. Has Real Woods looked much worse? Yes. 

149: Kasak (6th) Kasak has a great Friday night, winning twice, before his size hurts him on Saturday. 

157: Haines (1st) He doesn't look great, but are you picking anyone else over him in one match, factoring in the PSU nationals bonus? 

165: Mesenbrink (2nd) I think he's just not quite positionally disciplined enough yet to beat KOT, but he's more than enough for everyone else. If he went 157 this year, the buzz next offseason would be about him being the second undefeated 4xer

174: Starocci (1st) Still that dude. 

184: Truax (2nd) Penn State magic gets him to the finals, loses to Keck. 

197: Brooks (1st) turns the bracket into a mockery. 

285: Kerk (1st) He was pretty good before. He's taken a HUGE leap in health and consistency this year and looks to be well-above the rest of the weight class. 

 

 

Edited February 5 by macwoodfleet
take down may have been too confusing, i meant beat.

[Pinnacle]

Conn a bon probably wagering on these picks. 

[Grecojones]

I hope they get 10AAs. Would be nice to see.

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

42 minutes ago, macwoodfleet said:

125: Davis (5th). Who knows at this weight. Could win! Could go 1-2! split the difference somewhat. 

133: Nagao (4th) think he turns it on like SVN did last year, finishes a few more shots. 

141: BB (1st) Has he been awesome? No. Has Real Woods looked much worse? Yes. 

149: Kasak (6th) Kasak has a great Friday night, winning twice, before his size hurts him on Saturday. 

157: Haines (1st) He doesn't look great, but are you picking anyone else over him in one match, factoring in the PSU nationals bonus? 

165: Mesenbrink (2nd) I think he's just not quite positionally disciplined enough yet to beat KOT, but he's more than enough for everyone else. If he went 157 this year, the buzz next offseason would be about him being the second undefeated 4xer

174: Starocci (1st) Still that dude. 

184: Truax (2nd) Penn State magic gets him to the finals, loses to Keck. 

197: Brooks (1st) turns the bracket into a mockery. 

285: Kerk (1st) He was pretty good before. He's taken a HUGE leap in health and consistency this year and looks to be well-above the rest of the weight class. 

 

 

You just really love Penn State. Do you pray to Carl at night? 

[macwoodfleet]

2 minutes ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

You just really love Penn State. Do you pray to Carl at night? 

You would've said the same thing to people who picked Cenzo to beat IMar, Carter to beat Kem, RBY to beat Fix, etc. There's nothing outlandish here at all, and you have to factor in Penn State's overperformance.

They're 50-7 in semifinals since 2011. Tell me who is richer, than man who bet on PSU overperformance or the man who bet on underperformance? 

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

5 minutes ago, macwoodfleet said:

You would've said the same thing to people who picked Cenzo to beat IMar, Carter to beat Kem, RBY to beat Fix, etc. There's nothing outlandish here at all, and you have to factor in Penn State's overperformance.

They're 50-7 in semifinals since 2011. Tell me who is richer, than man who bet on PSU overperformance or the man who bet on underperformance? 

Fair enough, I just don’t agree that Truax is a finalist or that Bartlett can win it. 

[macwoodfleet]

1 minute ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

Fair enough, I just don’t agree that Truax is a finalist or that Bartlett can win it. 

Bartlett has proven he can win in March. Of the two guys ahead of him, one is sitting out and one looks like Dog-S. Obviously, if Real handles Beau next week, that would change the calculus.

Truax also knows how to win in march, and will have the best game planners come March in his corner.  You're betting against a PSU guy in the semis? Seems like a bad bet. 

[Threadkilla]

125 Davis 1st

133 Nagao 1st

141 Bartlett 1st

149 Kasak 1st

157 Haines 1st

165 Mesenbrink 1st

174 Starocci 1st 

184 Truax 4th 

197 Brooks 1st 

HWT Kerk 1st 

But PSU misses the scoring record,   so everyone just feels a little empty.

[macwoodfleet]

4 minutes ago, Threadkilla said:

125 Davis 1st

133 Nagao 1st

141 Bartlett 1st

149 Kasak 1st

157 Haines 1st

165 Mesenbrink 1st

174 Starocci 1st 

184 Truax 4th 

197 Brooks 1st 

HWT Kerk 1st 

But PSU misses the scoring record,   so everyone just feels a little empty.

Must've thrown headgear A LOT 

[MLB9]

18 minutes ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

Fair enough, I just don’t agree that Truax is a finalist or that Bartlett can win it. 

You don’t believe the undefeated and #1 ranked wrestler at whatever weight in February CAN win a national title? It’s unlikely he will, but can? He just beat Mendez and Woods looked horrific on the same night. He has as reasonable a chance as any other one guy. Versus the field, it’d be slim odds.

[Le duke]

You don’t believe the undefeated and #1 ranked wrestler at whatever weight in February CAN win a national title? It’s unlikely he will, but can? He just beat Mendez and Woods looked horrific on the same night. He has as reasonable a chance as any other one guy. Versus the field, it’d be slim odds.

Beau Bartlett just beat Mendez, lost to Nick Lee on criteria 10-10, and has very recent wins over Pletcher, Kolodzik and McKenna.

The kid isn’t flashy at all but he’s a gamer and he wins.


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[JimmyBT]

37 minutes ago, Le duke said:

Beau Bartlett just beat Mendez, lost to Nick Lee on criteria 10-10, and has very recent wins over Pletcher, Kolodzik and McKenna.

The kid isn’t flashy at all but he’s a gamer and he wins.


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Are the NCAAs freestyle this year ?

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

1 hour ago, macwoodfleet said:

Bartlett has proven he can win in March. Of the two guys ahead of him, one is sitting out and one looks like Dog-S. Obviously, if Real handles Beau next week, that would change the calculus.

Truax also knows how to win in march, and will have the best game planners come March in his corner.  You're betting against a PSU guy in the semis? Seems like a bad bet. 

I’m trying to meet you in the middle, I’m giving you the other and doubting your most likely to be wrong (in my opinion),  you tripping down shows your bias.

 

Truax hasn’t looked good and is not beating Keck, his only shot in the semis is being on the other side, and making it there….

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

1 hour ago, MLB9 said:

You don’t believe the undefeated and #1 ranked wrestler at whatever weight in February CAN win a national title? It’s unlikely he will, but can? He just beat Mendez and Woods looked horrific on the same night. He has as reasonable a chance as any other one guy. Versus the field, it’d be slim odds.

Sorry, he can win it. I don’t think he will. Maybe my wording is causing the commotion.
 

If we’re being honest there’s like 33 people that can win it when the qualifiers are finalized…. Let’s not be pedantic 

[JimmyBT]

125 - R12

133 - 7th 

141 - 4th

149 - 2-2

157 - 3rd

165 - 5th

174 - 1st

184 - 4th

197 - 1st

HWT - 1st 

[FanOfPurdueWrestling]

1 hour ago, Threadkilla said:

125 Davis 1st

133 Nagao 1st

141 Bartlett 1st

149 Kasak 1st

157 Haines 1st

165 Mesenbrink 1st

174 Starocci 1st 

184 Truax 4th 

197 Brooks 1st 

HWT Kerk 1st 

But PSU misses the scoring record,   so everyone just feels a little empty.

The Bernie hate is warranted, appreciate it.

[Le duke]

Are the NCAAs freestyle this year ?

They aren’t.

I’m simply not willing to ignore the fact that the kid has many much better senior level scalps to his name than a LOT of current #1s.


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[JimmyBT]

12 minutes ago, Le duke said:

 

They aren’t.

I’m simply not willing to ignore the fact that the kid has many much better senior level scalps to his name than a LOT of current #1s.


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He scored 10 points against Nick Lee in freestyle.  That ain’t happening in folk.   Of his 14 matches to this point four were pins.  In the other ten matches he scored 10 or more points just 3 times.  

Edited February 5 by JimmyBT

[MLB9]

12 minutes ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

Sorry, he can win it. I don’t think he will. Maybe my wording is causing the commotion.
 

If we’re being honest there’s like 33 people that can win it when the qualifiers are finalized…. Let’s not be pedantic 

No need to insult me because you can’t use simple helping verbs correctly. Can’t and won’t must be distinguished, I had no idea of your intent or meaning. Are you not willing to include Bartlett in a much smaller number under 33 that has a higher probability of winning a title than the field? You sure are with Purdue’s only hope in Ramos. I don’t know if and where fluctuating odds for individuals to win titles can be found, but I would think Bartlett at 141 is higher right now than 125.

[Gage]

just off the top of my head I'll go...

125 - 6th

133 - 4th

141 - 2nd

149 - R12

157 - 1st

165 - 3rd

174 - 1st

184 - 5th

197 - 1st

285 - 1st

I think it's terrifying that 8-9 AA's is PSU's floor lol. Insane team. 

Edited February 5 by Gage

[Rassling]

Brands have officially ruined a dynasty - I hope they get CRUSHED!

[JimmyCinnabon]

11 hours ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

Fair enough, I just don’t agree that Truax is a finalist or that Bartlett can win it. 

I don't think Truax looks like a finalist either but the idea that BB can't win it is short sighted. He just beat the #3 guy on the same night the #1 guy got taken to the woodshed by a guy BB beat. Woods, Bartlett, Mendez or even Lemley are capable of winning 141lbs this year. 

[Elevator]

2 hours ago, Rassling said:

Brands have officially ruined a dynasty - I hope they get CRUSHED!

Do not see this - even with bad luck of gambling sanctions they remain a top program and a magnet for top transfers.  While I almost always root against them, their guys develop well and bring it.  Respect.