Median 401K Balances

[mspart]

On 2/3/2024 at 2:40 PM, ionel said:

How much longer?

A lot!!

[jross]

On 2/1/2024 at 10:58 AM, jross said:

I could tell you what stocks I like, but you'd miss out when I no longer favored them and be angry when I missed them.

AT&T, Verizon, and Western Union were good buys recently at lower prices.  The share price has recovered nicely, and the dividends are very good.  I will not hold those three beyond 2024.  SOFI is a rapidly growing bank that recently became profitable.  I am bullish on SOFI through 2026.  The stock price is being manipulated, so it will cause a new person to freak out, like the recent 20% gain and sell-off with earnings.  For the longer-term holder, I like buying SOFI for under $8 and holding through 2026-2027 for $20.  I've been tracking COTY since 2020, listening to the quarterly earning calls, etc.  The company made many mistakes, changed leadership, and has returned to its profitable ways.  This goes from $12 to $15 and returns dividends in 2025 in my analysis.  SOFI and COTY are underpriced, though I'm not buying more COTY unless it drops to $ 10.50.  I like high insider buys on profitable companies on the low end of their 52-week price range as prospective companies to perform due diligence on for my buys.  I also look into companies like Roblox because my kids play the game, but it's a no currently as they do not seem to have a path to profit.

SPX and NDX index funds remain safer hands-off investments with great returns since 2020.  See below for reference and note that the 'current' rows compare the beg of 2020 to a price check in the past week.  I think S&P will be down in the first half of 2024 and be better in 2025... especially if we get a pro capital Trump as president.



As for me, I'm a maniac that swing trades and holds individual stocks... putting in larger amounts across a small number of companies.  A recent stupid decision was thinking there was a runway for DISH to return on a mid-term holding investment, and instead, it merged with Echostar and keeps losing value.  Frick.

edit: redid image

 

Update

I did not buy into Roblox.  From Feb 1st to Nov 25, it is up 26%. 

Not all activity is pictured.

SOFI has tailwinds behind it and is ahead of schedule on growth.  
COTY has headwinds in front of it, but the price is beaten down and is a buy under $8 (for me).

My price targets for SOFI and COTY are 30% up in March 2025.

I'm thinking of moving out of BABA and LUV.  Not sure to move to cash, bonds, existing holdings, or new opportunities.

Do you own due diligence.

[wrestlingguy]

On 2/1/2024 at 8:02 AM, Wrestleknownothing said:

https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/money/average-401k-balance-by-age

Fidelity estimates you should save from all sources:

1x your salary by age 30

3x by 40

6x by 50

8x by 60

10x by 67

But according to Vanguard median 401k savings (not all sources) is only:

25-34: $11,357

35-44: $28,318

45-54: $48,301

55-64: $71,168

65+:     $70,620

Get saving and investing, people. The stock market is a tremendous engine for wealth creation. Do not miss out.

Damn. The actual median savings is sad.  

[mspart]

I wish I had 5 million in my 401K.   No matter how much I wish it, it just doesn't happen.  

mspart

[jross]

Friendly reminder to invest in the S&P500 for a 10% gain over the long term.  And to trust yourself to make investment decisions if you are decent with analyzing data and futures.

2025 401K - Up 57%

• Current
  • Up 200% in SOFI even with averaging up to $9.84.  Adjusted price target to $45 for 2026.  High growth, good execution, risk vs reward.  
  • Up 184% in ATT thanks to dividends.  Sold off 60%.  Currently at price target and holding as a cash equivalent for the dividend.  Will sell off to buy something else eventually.
  • Up 25% in United Health
  • Flat in UPS
  • Bag holder in COTY, down 50% of investment and down 67% from peak paper profit.
• Other Wins - ASML, BABA, LUV, AAP.
• No losses yet.
• Other flat - PYPL
• Sold too soon - ASML, BABA

2025 Personal - Up 75%

• SOFI Calls - Up 429%
• COTY Calls - Down 74%
• Other Shares - Up 69%

Looking forward

• Will hold SOFI minimally through Summer 2026.  It is a growth stock that will continue killing it through minimally 2028.
• Will continue bag holding COTY rather than selling out.  I keep learning the lesson that the price can continue going down... while believe it will minimally return to $6 at this point (potential buyout) in 2026 and higher a few years out.
• I like PYPL if they monetize venmo.  
• I'm taking a flyer on UPS because it is a good company with a beaten down price.  I don't like them in 10 years but do for the next 18 monhts for a temporary price recovery.
• I am bullish on United Health returning to $400 in the next six months and much more over the next four years (return to $600+)
• I like Tesla over five years but think they are currently priced too high. 
• I like the long term future of quantum computing.
• Bearish on western union based on their current revenue stream future.

2024 401K - Up 37%

• Wins in DIS, PRDO, SOFI, ATT (T), WU
  • SOFI and ATT (T) made up for the losses
• Losses in AMST, COTY, CLOV, GLBS, HPP, MSOS, RGS, SATS
  • Most were losses from previous years that I finally sold out of.
• Sold too soon - SATS (Sold at $13, went to $70+)

Since switching 401K from indexes to self-controlled brokerage

1. 2020: 53.5% vs SPY 16.3% 
2. 2021: 56.2% vs SPY 26.9%
3. 2022: -20.4% vs SPY -19.4%
4. 2023: 22.0% vs SPY 24.2%
5. 2024: 37.8% vs SPY 26.6%
6. 2025: 56.8% as of Sept 19, 2025 vs SPY 13.3%

Moved balance from peanuts to almonds.  

[jross]

On 2/2/2024 at 4:01 PM, mspart said:

I want the one that doubles 30 times.   Got any recommendations?

mspart

SOFI went from $7.50 on Feb 2nd to $29.  That's 4x and counting.  

If they keep executing on their growth plans, it will go to $60+ in 2027.  Some are projecting $100.  You might look into it and buy some dips.  I like the company, their vision, their execution, the market, and their CEO's competence.  

Quick read: https://cheatsheets.stocktwits.com/p/sofi-mid-q-update-interest-rates-and-new-initiatives-top-of-mind

It is the only growth company that I have ever been bullish enough to let paper profits run.

ASML and UNH are my next most confident bets for the next few years.  They won't run like SOFI but should see paper profits in my opinion.

If I was looking at fintech alternatives to SOFI, I would consider NU.

If I was gambling, I would consider a flyer on Oracle.  They are selling more data hosting than they have data centers for, with remarkable booked revenues for the next couple years.  Some in the industry are saying the price could move from $300 to $900 if/as they execute.

 

---

 

How about you?  Anything you feel strongly about someone performing some due diligence on?  Beyond the tried and true living to 120 years old?

[jross]

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/personal-finance/average-retirement-savings

Balances are growing.

[mspart]

Wow, I entered the workforce kind of late at 26.   My mom demanded that I invest in the company 401k.   I did as instructed.   I had the 70+ amount when I was 45.   It is not at the 5 million mark I would like, but it is quite a bit greater than than that over the time from then to now.   So I guess I am doing better than what the average dude is doing out there.   With no pensions anymore in private enterprise, that kind of saving just isn't going to cut it.  

mspart