Auto-neutral?

[D3UC157]

At some point sports science, moneyball, saber metrics, whatever, will cross paths with the 3 pt takedown.

 

If pd1 ends 3-0, or 3-1 do you choose neutral in the 2nd or 3rd?

At least for one period you were better on your feet. Why risk an unknown of going under? Gaining a point still leaves you within a takedown. 

 

Previously, 1st period 2-1, exchange escapes, win 3-2.

Now, 1st period 3-1, don’t go under, 3-2.

It’s early in the 3pt system and old habits of auto-down are still likely the default.

As time passes will that phase out? Auto-neutral ever become the default?

 

 

Also, how angry are the Ohio State Jordan boys seeing that they could have avoided all that bottom time?

[Le duke]

At some point sports science, moneyball, saber metrics, whatever, will cross paths with the 3 pt takedown.
 
If pd1 ends 3-0, or 3-1 do you choose neutral in the 2nd or 3rd?
At least for one period you were better on your feet. Why risk an unknown of going under? Gaining a point still leaves you within a takedown. 

 
Previously, 1st period 2-1, exchange escapes, win 3-2.
Now, 1st period 3-1, don’t go under, 3-2.
It’s early in the 3pt system and old habits of auto-down are still likely the default.
As time passes will that phase out? Auto-neutral ever become the default?
 
 
Also, how angry are the Ohio State Jordan boys seeing that they could have avoided all that bottom time?

I think a guy like Mesenbrink should be auto-neutral.

Also, big oof for the Jordan boys.


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[1032004]

I think it still makes sense to choose down unless you're bad on bottom or the other guy is good on top.

End of 1 you're up 3-1.

You choose neutral and no scoring, 3-1.

Other guy escapes, takes you down, you escape, lose 5-4.  Should've chose bottom.

[Caveira]

I don’t think you will see post season strategy until the post season.  I wonder if stats back this up but I bet $1 that there is more aggregate riding time per match at conference and NCAA vs the regular season.   
 

I mean if it’s true that a good ride tires out your opponent.  At NCAAs why would they not try to put a tough ride on.   Now stalling rules may impact this I.e…. If they call stalling on top more aggressively you may see a ride till a stall then let them up.   Or you may see refs put their whistle in their pocket and allow more of it.    

imo refs call stalling more early season every year anyway….. and tend to not in the post season.   

[denger]

At a local dual yesterday I saw a guy choose neutral when he was up 3-1, and I thought it was strange. He'd scored his takedown in about 2:00, and the escaped happened within 10 seconds. Both were pushing the pace and attacking on their feet. Both had been near scoring position several times - seemed evenly matched.

I thought, "either he sucks on bottom, or he believes he can settle this opponent down....and, I guess the 3pt takedown has changed the usual strategy." 

The guy who chose neutral won by TF in the second, so he was right. Probably didn't want to waste time down there for one or two points. 

[CHROMEBIRD]

17 hours ago, D3UC157 said:

If pd1 ends 3-0, or 3-1 do you choose neutral in the 2nd or 3rd?

At least for one period you were better on your feet. Why risk an unknown of going under? Gaining a point still leaves you within a takedown. 
Previously, 1st period 2-1, exchange escapes, win 3-2.

Now, 1st period 3-1, don’t go under, 3-2.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding your point but under the previous system, 1st period ends 2-1 and you're still within a TD.

[D3UC157]

1 hour ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Maybe I'm misunderstanding your point but under the previous system, 1st period ends 2-1 and you're still within a TD.

Yeah, you’re right. I had about 12 ideas in my head and was trying to avoid a mile long post. That part is unchanged. Rubbish on me.

 

The big thing is if you can get a takedown you can avoid bottom and win. Old system needed to exchange escapes at least.

[D3UC157]

3 hours ago, Caveira said:

I don’t think you will see post season strategy until the post season.  I wonder if stats back this up but I bet $1 that there is more aggregate riding time per match at conference and NCAA vs the regular season.   
 

I mean if it’s true that a good ride tires out your opponent.  At NCAAs why would they not try to put a tough ride on.   Now stalling rules may impact this I.e…. If they call stalling on top more aggressively you may see a ride till a stall then let them up.   Or you may see refs put their whistle in their pocket and allow more of it.    

imo refs call stalling more early season every year anyway….. and tend to not in the post season.   

Post-season is definitely where I picture this first coming into play.

Right, on top they would want to put in a ride as best as possible. But skip going under for that reason and the lack of need for the point.

[Old Dirty]

99% of college wrestlers consider bottom a given 1pt

[Hillbilly Jim]

2 hours ago, Old Dirty said:

99% of college wrestlers consider bottom a given 1pt

Depends on who the top wrestler is