It's time: Predict the 2024 125 pound NCAA champ

[NM1965]

Everybody will think I'm crazy for this pick, but I like McKee at NCAAs at 125. 

[ionel]

1 hour ago, NM1965 said:

Everybody will think I'm crazy for this pick, but I like McKee at NCAAs at 125. 

to get 3rd? 

[CHROMEBIRD]

Ayala is still my pick, but the month of March is like kryptonite to Iowa so I'm not holding my breath. Would love to see Barnett and Poulin make a run, too.

[Rassling]

10 minutes ago, CHROMEBIRD said:

Ayala is still my pick, but the month of March is like kryptonite to Iowa so I'm not holding my breath. Would love to see Barnett and Poulin make a run, too.

I’ve been noticing Poulin climb up the rankings. He’s not my pick to win 125 but  getting to that point would be great.

[1032004]

4 hours ago, jmoney said:

McKee and Kaylor opponents- McKee might have 9 losses if he wrestled Kaylor's schedule. Kaylor's star is brightening. Ramos, Smith, Ayala, and Spratley and maybe Volk have harder schedules than Kaylor. They ahve 15 losses combined and guess what, they're better than your boys Barnett and McKee based on this season's body of work. I don't doubt McKee and Barnett make it competitive at Big 10s and Nationals but this represents their body of work.  Feel free to tell me how much better than Kaylor McKee is, though, I'm all ears.

McKee        Kaylor

Ramos L 

Ayala L        Ayala W

Ayala L

                    Spratley W

Smith W       Smith   L

                      Davis L

Barnett W   

Jordan  L      Jordan W   

                      Volk  W

                      Provo W

                      Ungar L

Peterson L  Strickenberger L

                       Moore L

                        Mendez W

                        Mendez W

                        Reno  L

Well similar to what I said earlier, I don’t necessarily think McKee should be ranked higher, but I don’t understand how there is such a big gap in the points system.  

Kaylor has good wins, but multiple bad losses.  McKee’s only bad loss is Jordan and it was like the second week of the season.

I think McKee would have a similar record to Kaylor with his schedule.  I don’t see more than 6 or 7 possible losses on that list for McKee - Ayala, Spratley, Davis, Jordan, Volk, Provo - I don’t think he loses to more than 1, maybe 2 of the other guys but he also likely beats 1 or 2 from the first list.

[NM1965]

13 hours ago, ionel said:

to get 3rd? 

Naw, I'm going with him to win it all. He's a Sr, he's placed high before, and I think shit will get sloppy enough at NCAAs at 125 that he might just end up on top. I'm not sold on any of them as a lock, Ramos and Barnett have looked quite beatable this year. 

[jmoney]

37 minutes ago, NM1965 said:

Naw, I'm going with him to win it all. He's a Sr, he's placed high before, and I think shit will get sloppy enough at NCAAs at 125 that he might just end up on top. I'm not sold on any of them as a lock, Ramos and Barnett have looked quite beatable this year. 

The Big10 and Big12 tourneys are gonna majorly influence AA likelihood. I don’t like anyone who gets a 12 or higher seed to win it all. Too many landmines out there…people act like there aren’t good wrestlers out there just because nobody has stayed undefeated-steady all year. If McKee has to wrestle Ayala, Barnett and Ramos to get to the finals that’s going to be a rougher path than Ramos gets. Ramos has looked great and people underestimate his strength of schedule. 

[jmoney]

11 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Well similar to what I said earlier, I don’t necessarily think McKee should be ranked higher, but I don’t understand how there is such a big gap in the points system.  

Kaylor has good wins, but multiple bad losses.  McKee’s only bad loss is Jordan and it was like the second week of the season.

I think McKee would have a similar record to Kaylor with his schedule.  I don’t see more than 6 or 7 possible losses on that list for McKee - Ayala, Spratley, Davis, Jordan, Volk, Provo - I don’t think he loses to more than 1, maybe 2 of the other guys but he also likely beats 1 or 2 from the first list.

I can see what happens if I adjust recent performance 5% higher and strength of schedule and peak wins 3% and 2% lower each. 

[1032004]

1 hour ago, jmoney said:

The Big10 and Big12 tourneys are gonna majorly influence AA likelihood. I don’t like anyone who gets a 12 or higher seed to win it all. Too many landmines out there…people act like there aren’t good wrestlers out there just because nobody has stayed undefeated-steady all year. If McKee has to wrestle Ayala, Barnett and Ramos to get to the finals that’s going to be a rougher path than Ramos gets. Ramos has looked great and people underestimate his strength of schedule. 

I think kinda the opposite TBH.   I doubt the winner of either the B12 or B10 tourney wins NCAA’s.  These guys are so close that it’s going to be tough to beat guys multiple times in a row (unless they can somehow avoid them in the bracket), and because they’re so close, seeding won’t really matter.

For example last year Ramos got majored by DeAugustino at B10’s.  But then of course Ramos made the NCAA finals and DeAugustino went 1-2.

[Rassling]

26 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

I think kinda the opposite TBH.   I doubt the winner of either the B12 or B10 tourney wins NCAA’s.  These guys are so close that it’s going to be tough to beat guys multiple times in a row (unless they can somehow avoid them in the bracket), and because they’re so close, seeding won’t really matter.

For example last year Ramos got majored by DeAugustino at B10’s.  But then of course Ramos made the NCAA finals and DeAugustino went 1-2.

Ramos remains the man to beat imho.

Edited February 25 by Rassling

[1032004]

Just now, Rassling said:

Ramos remains the man to beat imo.

He’s kinda established himself as the favorite at this point yes, but he still has 3 NCAA losses

[Rassling]

Just now, 1032004 said:

He’s kinda established himself as the favorite at this point yes, but he still has 3 NCAA losses

That was then and this is now. He will show everyone pinning Lee was no fluke.

[NM1965]

3 hours ago, jmoney said:

The Big10 and Big12 tourneys are gonna majorly influence AA likelihood. I don’t like anyone who gets a 12 or higher seed to win it all. Too many landmines out there…people act like there aren’t good wrestlers out there just because nobody has stayed undefeated-steady all year. If McKee has to wrestle Ayala, Barnett and Ramos to get to the finals that’s going to be a rougher path than Ramos gets. Ramos has looked great and people underestimate his strength of schedule. 

Well, I was picking McKee more as a 20:1 type longshot, to be honest  But I don't think there is a huge favorite at 125, even Ramos has lost a few matches this year. 

[jmoney]

What are the chances a guy like Brayden Palmer could shake up 125? Who are some guys he would prove problematic for to face ?I haven’t seen him wrestle a ton but he has these strengths and weaknesses :

S:

huge 125 pounder cutting from 141 4 years back 

lengthy and can turn the corner when guys get too deep on shots, good defense 

history of beating really good 133 pounders including at nationals 

good rider, rode Blaze like 3 minutes straight 

W:

slow reaction and lets guys pick his ankles and hit the single with ease

seems inoffensive (and I don’t mean anti-AJ anti-deuce birds in the splits)

weak-ish regular season resume 

 

Edited February 26 by jmoney

[1032004]

4 minutes ago, jmoney said:

What are the chances a guy like Brayden Palmer could shake up 125? Who are some guys he would prove problematic for to face ?I haven’t seen him wrestle a ton but he has these strengths and weaknesses :

S:

huge 125 pounder cutting from 141 4 years back 

lengthy and can turn the corner when guys get too deep on shots, good defense 

history of beating really good 133 pounders including at nationals 

good rider, rode Blaze like 3 minutes straight 

W:

slow reaction and lets guys pick his ankles and hit the single with ease

seems inoffensive (and I don’t mean anti-AJ anti-deuce birds in the splits)

weak-ish regular season resume 

 

I don’t see him making the semis, but I could certainly see him knocking off someone that many people would pick to do so

[jmoney]

1 minute ago, 1032004 said:

I don’t see him making the semis, but I could certainly see him knocking off someone that many people would pick to do so

Right, seems like an early upset threat against a guy lacking in strength and or height. Does Caleb Smith fit the bill? If DeAug and Palmer wrestled would DeAug even have to take a shot to win the match ?

[1032004]

6 minutes ago, jmoney said:

Right, seems like an early upset threat against a guy lacking in strength and or height. Does Caleb Smith fit the bill? If DeAug and Palmer wrestled would DeAug even have to take a shot to win the match ?

I would think it’d be more likely to be a younger or scrawnier guy, like Davis, Stanich, or Ayala

Edited February 26 by 1032004

[Tigerfan]

I think a healthy Surtin is bad for anyone seeing him for the first time this year. He’s way more offensive than years past, mostly due to health - according to Coach Smith. Spratley and Flynn are potential landmines, but he’ll surprise the BIG10 dudes as well as Stanich, Noto, etc. As someone said, B12’s will clarify things regarding Figs, Volk, Poulin, Flynn, Surtin, etc. In short, it’s still a mess. 

[1032004]

1 minute ago, Tigerfan said:

I think a healthy Surtin is bad for anyone seeing him for the first time this year. He’s way more offensive than years past, mostly due to health

Does this mean he’s healthier?  If so, then why the neck brace?

[Rassling]

3 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

I think a healthy Surtin is bad for anyone seeing him for the first time this year. He’s way more offensive than years past, mostly due to health - according to Coach Smith. Spratley and Flynn are potential landmines, but he’ll surprise the BIG10 dudes as well as Stanich, Noto, etc. As someone said, B12’s will clarify things regarding Figs, Volk, Poulin, Flynn, Surtin, etc. In short, it’s still a mess. 

I’m pulling for Poulin to shake some things up 

[Tigerfan]

Just overly precautionary, I suspect. Mizzou protects injury reports like Fort Knox. The neck doesn’t seem to affect his wrestling like a knee/shoulder/etc. would. 

[NM1965]

31 minutes ago, Rassling said:

I’m pulling for Poulin to shake some things up 

He obviously needs a mullet to top him off You've seen those Poulin videos from when he was a kid? Hehehe

[MrPotatoHead]

2 hours ago, jmoney said:

What are the chances a guy like Brayden Palmer could shake up 125? Who are some guys he would prove problematic for to face ?I haven’t seen him wrestle a ton but he has these strengths and weaknesses :

S:

huge 125 pounder cutting from 141 4 years back 

lengthy and can turn the corner when guys get too deep on shots, good defense 

history of beating really good 133 pounders including at nationals 

good rider, rode Blaze like 3 minutes straight 

W:

slow reaction and lets guys pick his ankles and hit the single with ease

seems inoffensive (and I don’t mean anti-AJ anti-deuce birds in the splits)

weak-ish regular season resume 

 

Depends on the cut and his health. He hasn’t looked right in a while. IF he can go into the Socon and NCAA tournaments at his best, I think he could knock off anyone at 125. 

[CHROMEBIRD]

5 hours ago, 1032004 said:

Does this mean he’s healthier?  If so, then why the neck brace?

The staff says he's fine and the brace is just a precautionary thing. Grain of salt, though!

[flyingcement]

I am also coming around on the idea of Ayala being a nose ahead of the pack right now.