The Race For Second

[Wrestleknownothing]

This year I decided not to look at the rankings every week. Instead, I have looked at the Intermat rankings 5 times so far.

And there have been 5 different second place teams (based on expected points).

• In the pre-season it was all Cornell on 56.5 points. However... 
• By the time the season started Michigan had rallied into the second spot on 56.5 points. That did not last long. After a tough CKLV Michigan faded...
• And NC State rallied to second on 61.8 points. NC State could not keep the momentum...
• But Missouri could, and they soon took over second on 68.8 points. Alas, Missouri met the same fate of all before them and fell
• While Nebraska rallied into second on 62.2 points where they stand now.

Notably, Iowa has not risen higher than fifth and currently sits at seventh. If only there was a savior on the horizon. 

On the plus side for everyone not named PSU, the expected margin of victory has been steadily shrinking.

In the pre-season PSU looked to be able to allow second and third to pool their points and still win. They had an expected margin of victory of 68.7 points at that time (131% greater than second place). As of January 3, mostly due to Shayne Van Ness' injury, that expected margin of victory is down to 44 points (a mere 71% higher than second).

As a reminder, to arrive at expected points I look at prior results per seed to assign probabilities to various finishes and then sum points advancement and placement points across those finishes. Expected points does not include bonus points.

Edited January 4 by Wrestleknownothing

[Mr. PeanutButter]

The race for 2nd is starting to look like 125

[ionel]

Pretty sure AJ indicated Iowa is going for 2

he showed how to get second at Salute correct?

[steamboat_charlie]

Good stuff.  Perhaps in 20 years when Cael hangs them up we can speculate again on who will actually win the thing.  

Very tough to separate these teams at the moment, at least in a tournament setting.  Each seems to have a few locks for AA, and a number of guys on the fringes that will likely end up making the difference.  

 

[jajensen09]

With the addition to nash hutmacher and Bubba Wilson going to 174. I think you could say nebraska is the front runner for this

[Wrestleknownothing]

16 minutes ago, jajensen09 said:

With the addition to nash hutmacher and Bubba Wilson going to 174. I think you could say nebraska is the front runner for this

The Nash Hutmacher question is the really interesting one. With Owen Petz unranked there is a chance for a real upgrade here. Where would you put Hutmacher right now?

[jajensen09]

24 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The Nash Hutmacher question is the really interesting one. With Owen Petz unranked there is a chance for a real upgrade here. Where would you put Hutmacher right now?

Owen never wrestled. It was Harley Andrews. Which would have been a 0 score guy at ncaas. If Nash could be an AA that would be 10-15 extra points not expected for nebraska.  It'll be interesting how long it'll take for him to be in wrestling shape