GV4444

I'm not clear on how the system works as I haven't been following college wrestling for that long. To a new casual observer, I find it odd that all the women's programs are smaller schools, despite the newer programs like Iowa and OSU starting up. What are the economics where all these small schools can have a non-revenue women's program, but the more well funded institutions don't? I feel bad for a lot of the girl wrestlers because their choices are limited. It's not that the smaller schools aren't great institutions, but bigger schools can offer a lot of programs that smaller schools can't. It is just another choice for the athlete. Plus, I think a women's Big 10 championship would be pretty cool.

You are inferring here. Other coaches may believe the timing of the event isn't detrimental to success in March, or they like the chance for program exposure and a million dollars knowing they aren't winning NCAA's anyway. Winning national duals may be a bigger deal to other programs, but holds no such value to Cael. I've felt that, while I love watching Cliff Keen, a grueling tournament like that may be detrimental to performance in March. Unlike 5 matches in a couple of days, ASC is one match at the beginning of the year. Cael's job isn't to make any event as good as it could be. PSU absence from any event makes it "less good as possible". Is it somehow not as bad that they don't participate in Cliff Keen because they aren't the only one that doesn't. Choosing to stick to your game plan vs. $200k does equal being a prick. If your favorite team were offered $1 million to fly to India for an exhibition match and fly back the day before NCAA's, your coach is not a prick for turning it down. What Cael has said about the event is quite different. So, if you, like many, believe the sport would be better if PSU didn't dominate, should Cael tank the NCAA's for the good of the sport? If you asked any coach a hypothetical, "Would you participate in National Duals if it guaranteed a worse result at NCAA's?", I think they would all say no, regardless of the "good for the sport" argument. So, 16 coaches think it won't hurt their chances and one does. But most of the 16 have no shot at the podium anyway and one keeps winning doing it his way. If the dates for next year's National Duals were firmed up right now, I think there is a chance Cael rearranges next years plan in order to participate.

Good one. New recruiting question by high schoolers, "Coach Brands (or any coach), how many kidneys do you have? Oh, and what's your blood type?" If it is a match, you pick Iowa because they have four matching kidneys.

Let's use a little bit of Occam's Razor here, based on his previous view on national duals. As a PSU fan, I would love to see them at National Duals. I would love for them to wrestle in 5 tournaments and 20 duals a year. That would be great. Reality is as follows: The primary goal of the Penn State team is to win the NCAA championship. The measure of the teams accomplishments will not be how many victories at National Duals, Cliff Keen, or even Big 10 championships. Everything on their schedule is therefore designed to allow the team to peak at the NCAA championships. Anything that interferes with that game plan is a negative and won't be acceptable to Cael. So, despite the fact that the concept of National Duals is a great one for determining the best team in the country, that is not the recognized metric for that designation. It is still the NCAA championships. So, Cael is not going to do anything that may be detrimental to that goal. Having said that, National Duals are a great idea. Can't wait to watch. Wish PSU were there, even if they used all their backups (will the matches count against red shirt limits?). I also believe it is quite possible that Cael will join the fun in the future if he feels the timing can be incorporated into his run to the national title.

Time for some regression analysis Take all the performers and their seeds and see if there is a relationship between seed and under/over performance. A #1 seed can never overperform, but is a 32 seed more likely to over-perform than an 8 seed? Is there an optimum seed for overperforming?

The answer is simple. Cael has created his seasonal protocol in order to achieve his primary goal and that goal is as many NCAA championships as possible. He may care about the dual record, but only as a secondary achievement on his way to the career record of season championships. Isn't that what we would all want in his shoes? The Collegiate Duals interfere with his seasonal protocols, therefore he has no interest as he sees it as detrimental to his primary goal. Once he gets criticized for not participating (I would love to see them in the event), he points out that the tournament can still be a great event without them, which is true. Even as a Penn State fan, I found the Nebraska vs. UNI, OSU vs. Iowa duals quite compelling. My hope is that if the Collegiate Duals continue with a fixed date, Cael will adjust his seasonal plan to incorporate the event. I would love to see Penn State wrestlers wrestle 30+ matches a year. I would also love seeing my favorite running backs carry the ball 40 times a game and my favorite pitchers start 36 games a year like the old days, but I get it.