Pablo

It all depends on what is your goal with a ranking. Yes, the objective of Pablo rankings is to predict outcomes of matches that are to come, and it gets optimized toward that. That's why I focus on predictive value of events. And I do that because, if I ask the question, "Who is the better wrestler?" what I want to know is, if I put them on the mat against each other, who is more likely to win? That's about probability. Here's the way I usually describe it: Suppose I took Gable Stevenson and replicated him, made an exact duplicate. And I put them on the mat, and gave one a green ankle band, and the other gets a red ankle band. Who do you think is going to win? Well, since they are by definition exactly equal, there is an equal chance that either red or green wins. Neither one is better than the other, they are equal. But one of them is going to win, we just don't know which. Now, give me the green ankle band and let me wrestle Gable Stevenson. He's a better wrestler than I am and so the probability of him winning is basically 100% (we shake hands, the whistle blows and a ceiling tile falls on his head knocking him out, and I win by injury default. I just have to run fast enough to allow the 10 seconds for the ceiling tile to fall all the way to the floor; that's my only chance of winning, but it is non-zero probability!). So Gable Stevenson over Pablo has a 100% probability. Somewhere between in-between me and Gable Stevenson there is the guy that is way better than me but not quite as good a Gable. Call him "Gable with a toothache." If I put Gable Stevenson up against Gable with a toothache, who is going to win? Well, a healthy Gable is a better wrestler than Gable with a toothache, so he's more likely to win, but the difference between them isn't big, so Gable with a toothache will still win a lot of the time. Maybe 45%. Healthy Gable is better, sure, but there is still a chance that Gable with a toothache can beat him. What Pablo rankings are trying to do is to figure out, what is that probability between them? In this model, I am ranking who's the better wrestler, with "better" being defined as "who is more likely to win if they wrestle each other" In this model, upsets will happen. Actually, by definition, they must happen. There will be times when the better wrestler loses. And this is true - we know that there are times when upsets happen. Heck, we can see this in rematches (this is something I need to explore at the college level; I've looked at it at the Indiana state high school level and you can absolutely see the upset rate (for example, if two guys match up in the regional finals and then match up again in the semi-state finals, the guy that won the regionals only wins 75% of the time at semi-state - same two guys, a week apart)), and you can also see it in failed transitivity (A beats B who beats C who beats A). So this is the way I think about it. In some respect yes it is a predictive model, but in the end, for me, when I asked the question "who is better" that's what we are talking about. I can create models that do things like, maximize the correct number of wins and losses for matches that have been wrestled, but if you think having Jett at #1 is screwy here, those things can go way off the rails. I just think that Pablo does a good job of reflect what we really mean when we talk about who is the "better wrestler." It's all about who going to win if they wrestle, right? But it's just not that simple. Pit replicated Gable against Gable, and someone is going to win. That doesn't mean either is a better wrestler. Sorry for the long screed....I like thinking about this stuff.

Yeah, lots of guys do that. He also pinned the #4 ranked wrestler in the weight class. Figueroa's result from last year does not affect this year's rankings. The bigger issue that I just found is his loss to Moore from NC in the Southeast Open. I don't have that in my dataset yet (not a dual, not Midlands or Cliff Keene). I'm guessing that will make a big difference.

With the matches I have, most of his losses are at 133. He is 6-1 at 125, with his only loss to #3 Figueroa. He is ranked #44 at 133, with a record of 3-3. For now, I am basically ranking them solely within the weight classes, so his matches against 133 guys don't affect his ranking within 125 I don't know what matches of his I am missing. I went through the results on the WV website to make sure I had everything I could find. I have not gotten to WV in trac yet. ETA: I think a lot of it is arising from his pin over Spratley. I want to come back to this just to clarify. This is the problem with criticisms like this. Idaho says, "But he just lost to #3 Figueroa!" and completely didn't mention the pin over #4 Spratley. What is the best way to assess those results? As I mentioned in the preamble, I have found that pins have much more significance in predicting future performance than do decisions, and so clearly what is happening here is that Pablo is putting a lot of emphasis on that pin. Now, with only 7 matches at 125 in my dataset, that is going to carry a lot of weight. More results at 125 will be useful, but based on what he has actually done (at least what I have), it is completely reasonable to see him ranked where he is.

1. 285:Oklahoma St_Wyatt Hendrickson 2. 285:Minnesota_Gable Steveson 3. 285:Virginia Tech_Jimmy Mullen 4. 285:Penn St_Greg Kerkvliet 5. 285:NC St_Isaac Trumble 6. 285:Arizona St_Cohlton Schultz 7. 285:Illinois_Luke Luffman 8. 285:Lehigh_Owen Trephan 9. 285:Ohio St_Nick Feldman 10. 285:Northern Iowa_Lance Runyon 11. 285:Iowa_Ben Kueter 12. 285:Maryland_Seth Nevills 13. 285:Michigan_Joshua Heindselman 14. 285:Rutgers_Yaraslau Slavikouski 15. 285:Missouri_Seth Nitzel 16. 285:Nebraska_Harley Andrews 17. 285:Morgan St_Xavier Doolin 18. 285:Pittsburgh_Dayton Pitzer 19. 285:Indiana_Jacob Bullock 20. 285:South Dakota St_Luke Rasmussen 21. 285:Lock Haven_Gavin Hoffman 22. 285:Iowa St_Daniel Herrera 23. 285:Minnesota_Bennett Tabor 24. 285:Cal Poly_Trevor Tinker 25. 285:Binghamton_Cory Day 26. 285:ND St_Andrew Blackburn-Forst 27. 285:Cleveland St_Daniel Bucknavich 28. 285:Oklahoma_Juan Mora 29. 285:Stanford_Peter Ming 30. 285:Purdue_Hayden Filipovich 31. 285:Ohio University_Jordan Greer 32. 285:Brown_Alex Semenenko 33. 285:Bellarmine_Daulton Mayer 34. 285:North Carolina_Nolan Neves 35. 285:Bucknell_Logan Shephard 36. 285:Northern Colorado_Remington Peterson 37. 285:Cornell_Ashton Davis 38. 285:Wyoming_Sam Mitchell 39. 285:Missouri_Jarrett Stoner 40. 285:American_William Jarrell

1. 174:Penn St_Levi Haines 1. 184:Penn St_Carter Starocci 1. 197:Iowa_Stephen Buchanan 2. 174:Missouri_Keegan O'Toole 2. 184:Northern Iowa_Parker Keckeisen 2. 197:Penn St_Josh Barr 3. 174:Oklahoma St_Dean Hamiti 3. 184:Oklahoma St_Dustin Plott 3. 285:Air Force_Antonio Ramos 4. 174:Ohio St_Carson Kharchla 4. 184:Minnesota_Max McEnelly 4. 197:Michigan_Jacob Cardenas 5. 174:Iowa_Patrick Kennedy 5. 184:Ohio St_Ryder Rogotzke 5. 197:Little Rock_Stephen Little 6. 174:Nebraska_Lenny Pinto 6. 184:Maryland_Jaxon Smith 6. 197:Lehigh_Michael Beard 7. 174:Oklahoma_Gaven Sax 7. 184:Cornell_Chris Foca 7. 197:Oklahoma St_Luke Surber 8. 174:Ohio University_Garrett Thompson 8. 184:Rutgers_Brian Soldano 8. 197:Illinois_Zac Braunagel 9. 174:Stanford_Lorenzo Norman 9. 184:Iowa_Gabe Arnold 9. 197:Nebraska_Camden McDanel 10. 174:North Carolina_Joshua Ogunsanya 10. 184:Nebraska_Silas Allred 10. 197:Missouri_Aeoden Sinclair 11. 174:South Dakota St_Cade DeVos 11. 184:South Dakota St_Bennett Berge 11. 197:Minnesota_Isaiah Salazar 12. 174:Illinois_Dan Braunagel 12. 184:Iowa_Angelo Ferrari 12. 197:Pittsburgh_Mac Stout 13. 174:Virginia Tech_Lennox Wolak 13. 184:NC St_Dylan Fishback 13. 197:Northern Iowa_Wyatt Voelker 14. 174:Navy_Danny Wask 14. 184:Pittsburgh_Reece Heller 14. 197:Appalachian St_Carson Floyd 15. 174:Bucknell_Myles Takats 15. 184:West Virginia_Dennis Robin 15. 285:American_Emmanuel Ulrich 16. 174:Drexel_Jasiah Queen 16. 184:Oklahoma_Deanthony ParkerJr 16. 197:Oregon St_Trey Munoz 17. 174:Iowa St_MJ Gaitan 17. 184:Wyoming_Eddie Neitenbach 17. 197:Wyoming_Joseph Novak 18. 174:NC St_Matthew Singleton 18. 184:Rider_Isaac Dean 18. 197:CSU Bakersfield_AJ Ferrari 19. 174:Northern Iowa_Jared Simma 19. 184:Iowa St_Evan Bockman 19. 197:Indiana_Gabe Sollars 20. 174:Iowa_Nelson Brands 20. 184:Columbia_Nick Fine 20. 197:Ohio St_Seth Shumate 21. 174:Cornell_Simon Ruiz 21. 184:Missouri_Colton Hawks 21. 197:Virginia Tech_Andy Smith 22. 174:Michigan_Joseph Walker 22. 184:Illinois_Edmond Ruth 22. 197:Iowa St_Christian Carroll 23. 174:Pittsburgh_Luca Augustine 23. 184:North Carolina_Gavin Kane 23. 197:Drexel_Mickey O'Malley 24. 174:Minnesota_Clayton Whiting 24. 184:Drexel_Giuseppe Hoose 24. 197:Princeton_Luke Stout 25. 174:Binghamton_Brevin Cassella 25. 184:Virginia Tech_Thomas StewartJr 25. 197:West Virginia_Rune Lawrence 26. 174:Rutgers_Jackson Turley 26. 184:Princeton_Kole Mulhauser 26. 197:Northwestern_Evan Bates 27. 174:Lock Haven_Avery Bassett 27. 184:Edinboro_Jared McGill 27. 197:Stanford_Nikolas Stemmet 28. 174:West Virginia_Brody Conley 28. 184:Indiana_Donnell Washington 28. 197:Rutgers_John Poznanski 29. 174:Wisconsin_Lucas Condon 29. 184:Purdue_James Rowley 29. 197:West Virginia_Ian Bush 30. 174:Purdue_Brody Baumann 30. 184:Hofstra_Ross McFarland 30. 197:South Dakota St_Zach Glazier 31. 174:Army_Dalton Harkins 31. 184:Chattanooga_Kamdyn Munro 31. 197:Bucknell_Dillon Bechtold 32. 174:Iowa St_Aiden Riggins 32. 184:ND St_Aidan Brenot 32. 197:Purdue_Ben Vanadia 33. 174:Columbia_Jack McGill 33. 184:Rutgers_Shane Cartagena-Walsh 33. 197:Army_Wolfgang Frable 34. 174:Utah Valley_Mark Takara 34. 184:CSU Bakersfield_Gerrit Nijenhuis 34. 197:Cornell_Michael Dellagatta 35. 174:Penn_Nick Incontrera 35. 184:Utah Valley_Caleb Uhlenhopp 35. 197:North Carolina_Cade Lautt 36. 174:Little Rock_Tyler Brennan 36. 184:Bellarmine_Devan Hendricks 36. 197:NC St_Christian Knop 37. 174:Central Michigan_Alex Cramer 37. 184:George Mason_Malachi Duvall 37. 197:Wisconsin_Wyatt Ingham 38. 174:Oregon St_Sean Harman 38. 184:Lehigh_Caden Rogers 38. 197:Iowa St_Nate Schon 39. 174:Wyoming_Riley Davis 39. 184:Buffalo_Marcus Petite 39. 197:Campbell_Levi Hopkins 40. 174:Maryland_Branson John 40. 184:Navy_Daniel Williams 40. 197:Navy_Payton Thomas

1. 149:Penn St_Van ness 1. 157:Cornell_Meyer Shapiro 1. 165:Penn St_Mitchell Mesenbrink 2. 149:Virginia Tech_Caleb Henson 2. 157:Nebraska_Antrell Taylor 2. 165:Iowa_Mike Caliendo 3. 149:Nebraska_Ridge Lovett 3. 165:Arizona St_Nicco Ruiz 3. 165:West Virginia_Peyton Hall 4. 149:Illinois_Kannon Webster 4. 157:Penn St_Tyler Kasak 4. 165:Minnesota_Andrew Sparks 5. 149:Iowa_Kyle Parco 5. 157:Ohio St_Paddy Gallagher 5. 165:Missouri_Cameron Steed 6. 149:North Carolina_Lachlan McNeil 6. 157:Ohio St_Brandon Cannon 6. 165:Cornell_Julian Ramirez 7. 149:Iowa St_Anthony Echemendia 7. 157:Little Rock_Matty Bianchi 7. 165:Illinois_Braeden Scoles 8. 149:Oregon St_Ethan Stiles 8. 157:Iowa_Jacori Teemer 8. 165:Nebraska_Christopher Minto 9. 149:Northern Iowa_Colin Realbuto 9. 157:Northwestern_Trevor Chumbley 9. 165:Utah Valley_Terrell Barraclough 10. 149:Penn_Cross Wasilewski 10. 157:Northern Colorado_Vinny Zerban 10. 165:Oklahoma St_Cameron Amine 11. 149:Ohio St_Dylan D'Emilio 11. 157:Northern Iowa_Ryder Downey 11. 165:Michigan_Beau Mantanona 12. 149:Iowa St_Paniro Johnson 12. 157:Oregon St_CJ Hamblin 12. 174:Appalachian St_Lucas Uliano 13. 149:Stanford_Jaden Abas 13. 157:Purdue_Joey Blaze 13. 165:South Dakota St_Drake Rhodes 14. 149:Princeton_Ty Whalen 14. 157:Iowa St_Cody Chittum 14. 165:George Mason_Evan Maag 15. 149:Rider_Sammy Alvarez 15. 157:Ohio University_Peyten Kellar 15. 165:Northwestern_Maxx Mayfield 16. 149:Wyoming_Gabe Willochell 16. 157:Penn St_Alex Facundo 16. 165:Nebraska_Bubba Wilson 17. 149:Pittsburgh_Finn Solomon 17. 157:Michigan_Chase Saldate 17. 165:Cal Baptist_Drayden Morton 18. 149:Pittsburgh_Kade Brown 18. 157:Virginia Tech_Rafael Hipolito 18. 165:Columbia_Cesar Alvan 19. 149:Oklahoma_Willie McDougald 19. 157:Penn_Jude Swisher 19. 165:Little Rock_Joseph Bianchi 20. 149:NC St_Koy Buesgens 20. 157:Stanford_Grigor Cholakyan 20. 165:Stanford_Hunter Garvin 21. 149:Little Rock_Jordan Williams 21. 157:Maryland_Ethen Miller 21. 165:Rider_Enrique Munguia 22. 149:Northwestern_Sam Cartella 22. 165:Army_Gunner Filipowicz 22. 165:South Dakota St_Marcus Espinoza-Owens 23. 149:Michigan_Dylan Gilcher 23. 157:Lehigh_Logan Rozynski 23. 165:Northern Iowa_Jack Thomsen 24. 149:Oklahoma St_Carter Young 24. 157:NC St_Ed Scott 24. 165:Indiana_Tyler Lillard 25. 149:Virginia_Jack Gioffre 25. 157:Central Michigan_Johnny Lovett 25. 165:Ohio St_Sammy Sasso 26. 149:Missouri_Logan Gioffre 26. 157:Minnesota_Tommy Askey 26. 165:Bucknell_Noah Mulvaney 27. 149:Edinboro_Ryan Burgos 27. 157:Pittsburgh_Dylan Evans 27. 165:Hofstra_Kyle Mosher 28. 149:Lehigh_Malyke Hines 28. 157:Brown_Blake Saito 28. 165:Virginia_Nick Hamilton 29. 149:Columbia_Richard Fedalen 29. 157:North Carolina_Sonny Santiago 29. 165:Binghamton_Carter Baer 30. 149:Rutgers_Andrew Clark 30. 157:Navy_Jonathan Ley 30. 165:Rutgers_Anthony White 31. 149:Minnesota_Drew Roberts 31. 157:Northern Illinois_Landen Johnson 31. 165:Cal Poly_Luka Wick 32. 149:Kent St_Billy Meiszner 32. 157:Oklahoma St_Caleb Fish 32. 165:NC St_Derek Fields 33. 149:Central Michigan_Mason Shrader 33. 157:Rider_Colton Washleski 33. 165:Iowa St_Aiden Riggins 34. 149:West Virginia_Sam Hillegas 34. 157:LIU_Brayden Roberts 34. 165:Virginia Tech_Mac Church 35. 149:Cornell_Ethan Fernandez 35. 157:Wyoming_Jared Hill 35. 165:Rutgers_Andrew Barbosa 36. 149:VMI_Patrick Jordon 36. 157:South Dakota St_Cobe Siebrecht 36. 165:Oklahoma_Tate Picklo 37. 149:George Mason_Kaden Cassidy 37. 157:Campbell_Chris Earnest 37. 165:Navy_Dylan Elmore 38. 149:South Dakota St_Colin Dupill 38. 157:Chattanooga_Noah Castillo 38. 165:Pittsburgh_Jared Keslar 39. 149:The Citadel_Carson DesRosier 39. 157:Cal Poly_Legend Lamer 39. 174:American_Caleb Campos 40. 149:Cal Baptist_Paul Kelly 40. 157:Buffalo_Kaleb Burgess 40. 174:Air Force_Jack Ganos

1. 141:Ohio St_Jesse Mendez 2. 141:Nebraska_Brock Hardy 3. 141:Penn St_Beau Bartlett 4. 141:Navy_Josh Koderhandt 5. 141:Rutgers_Joesph Oliveri 6. 141:Oklahoma St_Tagen Jamison 7. 141:Northern Colorado_Andrew Alirez 8. 141:Michigan_Sergio Lemley 9. 141:Minnesota_Vance Vombaur 10. 141:Penn_CJ Composto 11. 141:Rutgers_Joseph Olivieri 12. 141:Iowa St_Jacob Frost 13. 141:Virginia Tech_Sam Latona 14. 141:Lehigh_Carter Bailey 15. 141:Columbia_Kai Owen 16. 149:Army_Trae McDaniel 17. 141:Oklahoma_Mosha Schwartz 18. 141:Northern Iowa_Cael Happel 19. 141:Stanford_Jason Miranda 20. 141:Virginia_Dylan Cedeno 21. 141:Princeton_Eligh Rivera 22. 141:Missouri_Josh Edmond 23. 141:Pittsburgh_Briar Priest 24. 141:Iowa_Cullan Schriever 25. 141:Cornell_Joshua Saunders 26. 141:Drexel_Jordan Soriano 27. 141:Illinois_Danny Pucino 28. 141:SIU Edwardsville_Danny Martinez 29. 141:Iowa_Ryder Block 30. 149:Arizona St_Jesse Vasquez 31. 141:Chattanooga_Eli Knight 32. 141:North Carolina_Jayden Scott 33. 141:Purdue_Greyson Clark 34. 141:Brown_Ian Oswalt 35. 141:Utah Valley_Haiden Drury 36. 141:Wyoming_Cole Brooks 37. 141:Lock Haven_Wyatt Henson 38. 141:Gardner-Webb_Todd Carter 39. 141:Little Rock_Van Hoecke 40. 141:Oregon St_Nash Singleton

1. 133:Little Rock_Nasir Bailey 2. 133:Cal Poly_Zeth Romney 3. 133:Ohio St_Nic Bouzakis 4. 133:Iowa_Drake Ayala 5. 133:Illinois_Lucas Byrd 6. 133:Northern Colorado_Dominick Serrano 7. 133:Stanford_Tyler Knox 8. 133:Nebraska_Van Dee 9. 133:Iowa St_Evan Frost 10. 133:Virginia Tech_Connor McGonagle 11. 133:Maryland_Braxton Brown 12. 133:Ohio St_Ben Davino 13. 133:ND St_Kyle Burwick 14. 133:Penn St_Braeden Davis 15. 133:Minnesota_Tyler Wells 16. 133:NC St_Troy Hohman 17. 133:Michigan_Dylan Ragusin 18. 133:Indiana_Angelo Rini 19. 133:Penn_Ryan Miller 20. 133:Wisconsin_Zan Fugitt 21. 133:Lock Haven_Anthony Noto 22. 133:Rutgers_Dylan Shawver 23. 133:Oklahoma St_Reece Witcraft 24. 133:Northern Illinois_Markel Baker 25. 133:Chattanooga_Blake Boarman 26. 141:Arizona St_Emilio YsaguirreJr 27. 133:Gardner-Webb_Takeo Davis 28. 133:North Carolina_Ethan Oakley 29. 133:Central Michigan_Vince Perez 30. 133:Edinboro_Colton Camacho 31. 141:Army_Braden Basile 32. 133:Drexel_Kyle Waterman 33. 133:Northern Iowa_Julian Farber 34. 133:Virginia_Gable Porter 35. 133:Penn St_Kyison Garcia 36. 133:South Dakota St_Derrick Cardinal 37. 133:Central Michigan_Sean Spidle 38. 133:Utah Valley_Kase Mauger 39. 133:SIU Edwardsville_Marcel Lopez 40. 133:Missouri_Kade Moore

1 . 125:West Virginia_Jett Strickenberger 2 . 125:Purdue_Matt Ramos 3 . 125:Arizona St_Richard Figueroa 4 . 125:Ohio St_Brendan McCrone 5 . 125:Oklahoma St_Troy Spratley 6 . 125:Penn St_Luke Lilledahl 7 . 125:Wisconsin_Nicolar Rivera 8 . 125:Virginia Tech_Eddie Ventresca 9 . 125:Penn_Max Gallagher 10 . 125:Lehigh_Sheldon Seymour 11 . 125:NC St_Vince Robinson 12 . 125:Princeton_Marc-Anthony McGowan 13 . 125:Nebraska_Caleb Smith 14 . 125:Northern Illinois_Blake West 15 . 125:Missouri_Gage Walker 16 . 125:Rutgers_Dean Peterson 17 . 133:American_Raymond Lopez 18 . 125:Oregon St_Maximo Renteria 19 . 133:Army_Ethan Berginc 20 . 125:Indiana_Jacob Moran 21 . 125:Oklahoma_Antonio Lorenzo 22 . 125:North Carolina_Spencer Moore 23 . 125:Harvard_Diego Sotelo 24 . 125:Minnesota_Cooper Flynn 25 . 125:Iowa St_Kysen Terukina 26 . 125:West Virginia_Jace Schafer 27 . 125:South Dakota St_Tanner Jordan 28 . 133:Appalachian St_Chad Bellis 29 . 125:Cal Poly_Koda Holeman 30 . 125:Iowa_Joey Cruz 31 . 133:Bucknell_Kurt Phipps 32 . 125:Northern Iowa_Trever Anderson 33 . 125:Utah Valley_Bridger Ricks 34 . 125:Cornell_Marcello Milani 35 . 125:Purdue_Isaiah Quintero 36 . 125:Northwestern_Dedrick Navarro 37 . 125:Army_Charlie Farmer 38 . 125:Binghamton_Carson Wagner 39 . 125:Princeton_Ethan Rivera 40 . 125:Campbell_Cooper Shore

I'm new here, but not new to wrestling. I grew up in Iowa and am an high school official on leave while my kids are in high school. But in another part of my life, I think about things like rankings. Back 25 years now, I created a ranking system for NCAA volleyball, the Pablo Volleyball Rankings. It ended up working out pretty well, and is now well-recognized in the college volleyball community (I'm like the Ken Pomm of volleyball, before Ken Pomm was famous). At one point, the coaches tried to get the NCAA to use Pablo Rankings instead of RPI for making NCAA selections (yeah, that got nowhere)! I've even presented it at the American Statistical Society. Recently I've been thinking about how to do it with wrestling. There are some fascinating aspects that come with wrestling rankings (I love the concept of ranking teams for dual meets - I've got a methodology for that), but the big challenge is finding the match outcomes. Well, I finally found something that would work with the Flo weekly reports, and with the help of contributors here, I've gotten to the point where I can try. The methodology at this point is very raw. My match data set is ok, I think. I have the results for most of the D1 dual meets this year, and I have the big tournaments (Cliff Keen and Midlands). As I slog through all the teams on trac, I hope to have all the matches for all the wrestlers from all the D1 teams, but that will take me a while (I'm talking all the JV guys and everything - it's going to be 10s of thousands of matches and probably more than 10 000 wrestlers). I won't go into too much detail about the methodology, but the standard Pablo approach is that it uses match performance in head-to-head matchups to predict future match outcomes. I don't have enough data yet to have a very robust model, but it's based on point differential in matches up to and including tech falls, and pins are treated separately. It goes beyond an ELO (Chess, win/loss) approach because I have found that, at least in volleyball, point differential matters when it comes to predicting future performance. When I get more data with wrestling, hopefully I will be able to establish that more solidly, but for now I am just working from a mostly assumed model. I've done some testing and have found that, for example, a tech fall has basically the same predictive value as a 15 point win (IOW, there is no premium for a tech fall over and above the points) and that a pin is worth basically twice that of a tech. But there is a long way to go to determine what is best. At this point, I am just treating all the matches through the season as equal, and not giving more weight to more recent matches, but that is possible and likely come eventually. What I am going to to do in the next posts is share the results that I have. Some kind of surprises in small ways, but looking at the big picture, I think things are reasonable. A lot of Penn St guys in the top 5, for example. I won't post the actual Pablo "rating" values for each guy because I don't quite know how to interpret them yet. Ultimately, the goal of the ratings to be able to calculate a match probability based on the ratings difference, but I just don't have that model yet. It requires the right raw data. I'm working on it. Results below, once I figure out how to format them. ETA: By the way, in order to be included in the rankings the wrestler has to have at least 5 matches in my dataset

So here's what I learned. Apparently there is the possibility of an SV-3 period, but it takes craziness to get there (the wrestlers have to have the same riding time in the first 30/30 AND the second 30/30. It's also the case that you can't have a 4 point sudden victory. I think this is more likely a case of the scorekeeper being confused and entering SV-3 instead of TB-3. Wild. Here's how the collegiate overtime sequence goes: Regulation ends. All riding time is removed. • SV-1 (2:00). If still tied, • TB-1 (:30) and TB-2 (:30). If still tied, whoever has more advantage time in the overtime period wins. If advantage time is also tied, • SV-2 (1:00). If the score is still tied, • TB-3 (:30) and TB-4 (:30). If still tied, whoever has more advantage time in the overtime period wins. If advantage time is also tied, • SV-3 (1:00). If the score is still tied, • TB-5 (:30) and TB-6 (:30). If still tied, whoever has more advantage time in the overtime period wins. If advantage time is also tied, • Repeat the same process used for SV-2, TB-3, and TB-4 until there is a winner.

I'm asking the Officials group on Facebook to see what they have to say.

But extra periods 2 and 3 are not SV, are they? Sudden victory means the match is over when a wrestler scores. However, periods 2 and 3 are both run out completely, with each wrestler having the opportunity to start on top. This could be TB-3, which means they did SV and no one scored, and then did the two periods and one guy had a 4 pt near fall, but that wouldn't be Sudden Victory, just the tie breaker.

Thanks for your help. Yeah, I can find by events like that (and thanks for the tip on using an advanced search to get to the NCAA), but when I go to the events themselves, to get the results in the same format as when I check teams, I have to either choose a round or a weight. OK, so 10 weight classes or who knows how many rounds. Grrrrr....I just want the whole tournament! Going through the teams search, I can find all the matches for wrestlers for a selected team at the tournament, but now I am doing it team by team. There has to be a better way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ugh.

I've been looking at a lot of score results in trac the last day and have come across some notation that I am not sure about regarding tie-breakers. Here's a match outcome Jack MacDonald (Buffalo) over Juliano Marion (Pittsburgh) (SV-3 8-4) What exactly is SV-3? I mean, SV-1 I get would be sudden victory in the first overtime period. But after that, they go to 2 periods of starting in the referee's position, and it's not SV any more. Now in high school they go to the UTB, but college uses riding time as the tie breaker after those periods. So I am trying to figure out what is the SV-3, and, in addition, how does it get to a 4 point difference (a takedown to the back in SV period can go on to see if it goes to fall, but that would need at least 2 points near fall) Trac also has matches that are listed as TB-1 (which I interpret as SV but I could be wrong) or TB-2 or even TB-3. Any help would be appreciated.

Ooo, this is very useful for me. I can slog through that pretty well. Now how about this: what if I want to find results not so much by team or by event, but by date? Like ALL the results on a given day? Is there a way in trac to do that? Or anywhere? But this is certainly a good start for me. Thanks a ton!

I'm not familiar with the D2 wrestling scene all that much - is there as much of a regional distortion in wrestling quality as there is in, for example, volleyball? In volleyball they run 8 regions, but 2 of them have like 7 teams in the top 20, and then there are those with maybe 1 team in the top 20, one other top 40 and the rest are below 80. They insist on regionalizing the tournament, but the quality of teams is not evenly distributed, and it's not even close. And it's even worse in D3, where there are a huge number of teams in the northeast part of the country and most of them stink it up. It's hard to get a good assessment of the national landscape in wrestling in the other divisions, for starters because it's really hard to find results.

Does anyone have any comments about the D2 and D3 regional qualifiers last weekend? The good, the bad, the surprises, things worth noting? The only thing I saw that is worth mentioning is that D2 #1 at 141 Cayden Hentschel from Wisc-Parkside crashed and burned in Super Region V, and won't be going to nationals. Parkside guys on the whole underwhelmed. What happened in D3? Wartburg have any success? PS I am obliged to say Wart Sucks.