Pablo

Someone tell me if I am interpreting this correctly (it might address a couple of the problems). See Ferrari vs Mirasola. Both Flo and trac have this as Ferrari winning with the score 1-1. But flo has the play-by-play and we can use that. First period is scoreless. Ferrari takes bottom in period 2, and gets an immediate escape. Riding time 0.09 Mirasola at end of period 2. Mirasola goes down in period 3, and doesn't escape until there are 11 seconds left. So riding time goes to 1:40 for Ferrari. The play-by-play does not have the 1 point for riding time, so it finished up at 2-1? Can anyone confirm that result? If so, that's great, problem solved. There is at least one other match where I was able to figure out the same thing, a missing riding time point.

1 285:Iowa State_Yonger Bastida 28.0% 2 285:NC State_Isaac Trumble 14.4% 3 285:Michigan_Taye Ghadiali 10.4% 4 285:Oklahoma State_Konner Doucet 7.1% 5 285:Ohio State_Nick Feldman 6.7% 6 285:Nebraska_AJ Ferrari 6.3% 7 285:Penn State_Lucas Cochran 4.8% 8 285:Nebraska_Cade Ziola 4.2% 9 285:Penn State_Cole Mirasola 3.6% 10 285:Wyoming_Christian Carroll 3.5% 11 285:Wisconsin_Braxton Amos 3.0% 12 285:Virginia Tech_Jimmy Mullen 2.3% 13 285:Iowa_Ben Kueter 1.7% 14 285:Pittsburgh_Dayton Pitzer 1.5% 15 285:Army West Point_Brady Colbert 1.4% 16 285:Lehigh_Nathan Taylor 1.1%

1 197:Penn State_Josh Barr 49.9% 2 197:Iowa State_Rocky Elam 9.2% 3 197:Wyoming_Joey Novak 8.2% 4 197:Oregon State_Justin Rademacher 3.8% 5 197:Oklahoma_DJ Parker 3.5% 6 197:Nebraska_Camden McDanel 3.4% 7 197:Stanford_Angelo Posada 3.4% 8 197:Rider_Brock Zurawski 2.6% 9 197:Pittsburgh_Mac Stout 2.5% 10 197:Oklahoma State_Cody Merrill 2.5% 11 197:Little Rock_Stephen Little 2.5% 12 197:Ohio State_Luke Geog 2.3% 13 197:Maryland_Branson John 1.9% 14 197:South Dakota State_Bennett Berge 1.8% 15 197:Missouri_Evan Bates 1.5% 16 197:Rutgers_Remy Cotton 1.0%

1 184:Missouri_Aeoden Sinclair 19.3% 2 184:Penn State_Rocco Welsh 18.9% 3 184:Minnesota_Max McEnelly 15.6% 4 184:Iowa_Angelo Ferrari 8.9% 5 184:Franklin & Marshall_James Conway 7.6% 6 184:Ohio State_Dylan Fishback 6.8% 7 184:Iowa_Gabe Arnold 4.5% 8 184:Nebraska_Silas Allred 4.2% 9 184:Michigan_Brock Mantanona 3.8% 10 184:Wyoming_Eddie Neitenbach 2.3% 11 184:Rutgers_Shane CartagenaWalsh 1.6% 12 184:Oklahoma_Brian Soldano 1.5% 13 184:Oklahoma State_Zack Ryder 1.5% 14 184:Illinois_Chris Moore 1.2% 15 184:American_Caleb Campos 1.1% 16 184:Edinboro_Jared McGill 1.1% another tight one (I realize there are 2 Iowegians, but I'm not going to worry)

1 174:Penn State_Levi Haines 38.8% 2 174:Ohio State_Carson Kharchla 13.1% 3 174:Iowa_Patrick Kennedy 11.0% 4 174:Nebraska_Christopher Minto 6.6% 5 174:Cornell_Simon Ruiz 5.9% 6 174:Oklahoma State_Alex Facundo 4.8% 7 174:Michigan_Beau Mantanona 4.5% 8 174:Missouri_Cam Steed 3.1% 9 174:Navy_Danny Wask 2.1% 10 174:NC State_Matty Singleton 1.9% 11 174:Columbia_Nick Fine 1.7% 12 174:Bucknell_Myles Takats 1.5% 13 174:Iowa State_MJ Gaitan 1.4% 14 174:Northern Iowa_Jared Simma 1.3% 15 174:Oregon State_Daschle Lamer 1.2% 16 174:Penn State_Will Henckel 0.9%

1 165:Penn State_Mitchell Mesenbrink 53.1% 2 165:Iowa_Mikey Caliendo 13.7% 3 165:Purdue_Joey Blaze 7.3% 4 165:Lehigh_Max Brignola 5.6% 5 165:Oklahoma State_LaDarion Lockett 5.2% 6 165:Arizona State_Nicco Ruiz 3.3% 7 165:Illinois_Braeden Scoles 2.3% 8 165:Nebraska_LJ Araujo 1.5% 9 165:Northern Iowa_Ryder Downey 1.3% 10 165:Ohio State_Paddy Gallagher 1.3% 11 165:Iowa State_Connor Euton 1.2% 12 165:Minnesota_Andrew Sparks 1.0% 13 165:NC State_Will Denny 0.9% 14 165:Missouri_Maxx Mayfield 0.9% 15 165:Little Rock_Matty Bianchi 0.8% 16 165:Princeton_Ty Whalen 0.6%

1 157:Ohio State_Brandon Cannon 18.2% 2 157:Cornell_Meyer Shapiro 18.1% 3 157:Penn State_PJ Duke 10.4% 4 157:Oklahoma State_Landon Robideau 9.4% 5 157:Stanford_Daniel Cardenas 9.1% 6 157:Nebraska_Antrell Taylor 8.8% 7 157:Illinois_Kannon Webster 7.6% 8 157:Iowa State_Vinny Zerban 4.7% 9 157:West Virginia_Ty Watters 4.4% 10 157:Penn State_Joe Sealey 1.8% 11 157:Pennsylvania_Jude Swisher 1.7% 12 157:NC State_Jackson Arrington 1.5% 13 157:Missouri_Teague Travis 1.4% 14 157:Minnesota_Charlie Millard 1.2% 15 157:Pittsburgh_Dylan Evans 0.8% 16 157:Michigan_Cameron Catrabone 0.7% (wow, that's tight! Very competitive)

1 149:Penn State_Shayne Van Ness 32.9% 2 149:Cornell_Jaxon Joy 12.6% 3 149:Missouri_Seth Mendoza 8.7% 4 149:Arizona State_Kaleb Larkin 7.7% 5 149:Utah Valley_David Evans 4.6% 6 149:NC State_Koy Buesgens 4.1% 7 149:Stanford_Aden Valencia 3.8% 8 149:Pennsylvania_Cross Wasilewski 3.4% 9 149:Oklahoma State_Casey Swiderski 3.4% 10 149:Maryland_Carter Young 3.2% 11 149:Penn State_Connor Pierce 3.0% 12 149:Virginia Tech_Collin Gaj 2.9% 13 149:Nebraska_Chance Lamer 2.8% 14 149:Ohio State_Ethan Stiles 2.7% 15 149:Michigan_Sergio Lemley 2.5% 16 149:Iowa_Ryder Block 1.8% (if I drop the cutoff to 7, Bo Bassett goes to 52% and Van Ness is like 16)

1 141:Ohio State_Jesse Mendez 51.4% 2 141:Oklahoma State_Sergio Vega 12.4% 3 141:Lehigh_Luke Stanich 9.4% 4 141:Nebraska_Brock Hardy 6.3% 5 141:Iowa State_Anthony Echemendia 4.9% 6 141:Cornell_Vince Cornella 3.4% 7 141:Rutgers_Joey Olivieri 3.0% 8 141:Minnesota_Vance Vombaur 1.8% 9 141:Lock Haven_Wyatt Henson 1.5% 10 141:Penn State_Braeden Davis 1.2% 11 141:Iowa_Nasir Bailey 1.1% 12 141:NC State_Ryan Jack 0.9% 13 141:Arizona State_Pierson Manville 0.8% 14 141:Pennsylvania_CJ Composto 0.7% 15 141:South Dakota State_Julian Tagg 0.6% 16 141:Stanford_Jack Consiglio 0.4%

1 133:Oklahoma State_Jax Forrest 51.4% 2 133:Virginia Tech_Aaron Seidel 28.7% 3 133:Penn State_Marcus Blaze 6.2% 4 133:Ohio State_Ben Davino 4.5% 5 133:Iowa State_Evan Frost 3.8% 6 133:Iowa_Drake Ayala 1.6% 7 133:Arizona State_Kyler Larkin 0.8% 8 133:Gardner-Webb_T.K. Davis 0.6% 9 133:Northern Colorado_Dominick Serrano 0.4% 10 133:West Virginia_Gunner Andrick 0.4% 11 133:Stanford_Tyler Knox 0.4% 12 133:Illinois_Lucas Byrd 0.3% 13 133:Nebraska_Jacob Van Dee 0.3% 14 133:Wisconsin_Zan Fugitt 0.2% 15 133:Pennsylvania_Evan Mougalian 0.2% 16 133:Virginia Tech_Dillon Campbell 0.1%

1 125:Ohio State_Nic Bouzakis 27.1% 2 125:Penn State_Luke Lilledahl 25.6% 3 125:Indiana_Jacob Moran 7.4% 4 125:Oklahoma State_Troy Spratley 6.9% 5 125:Lehigh_Sheldon Seymour 5.5% 6 125:Virginia Tech_Eddie Ventresca 5.0% 7 125:Iowa State_Stevo Poulin 3.5% 8 125:Illinois_Spencer Moore 2.9% 9 125:Iowa_Dean Peterson 2.9% 10 125:NC State_Vincent Robinson 2.7% 11 125:Princeton_MarcAnthony McGowan 2.4% 12 125:Oregon State_Maximo Renteria 2.2% 13 125:Stanford_Nico Provo 2.2% 14 125:Oklahoma_Sebastian Degennaro 1.8% 15 125:Rider_Tyler Klinsky 1.2% 16 125:Minnesota_Jore Volk 0.9%

The Pablo update this week is going to be early version NCAA championship probabilities. Obviously there are going to be effects of bracketing etc, but this should give an idea of who Pablo thinks is in the running. What I have done to get these is to take the top 16 ranked wrestlers in Pablo and bracketed them up and used a Markov-chain approach to calculate their round-by-round win probabilities based on their Pablo ratings. If you want to know about someone else, assume they are lower than the lowest one on the list. I am using 9 matches as my cutoff so that Jax Forrest is eligible.

Pablo says: more likely than not. Bassett has 7 matches against D1 this year. Pablo is impressed with the results.

Thanks again for everyone's help. I figured out a couple of things that are going on. 1) A lot of the matches I flagged here were actually indicated as SV/TB, etc in the original result. Since Pablo doesn't care about scores in overtime matches, I don't have to worry about them and I shouldn't have included them 2) As many of you are catching, a lot of them are injury defaults. I think I may have missed culling out that specific injury flag in Trac which is how they got through. I think I flag things that are labelled inj. but maybe not the ones without the . or something like that. Man, I wish trac was more consistent with its outcomes (ok, I wish it was more like Flo with the CSV download but even so, just consistent format would be helpful). Unfortunately, trac is more complete in the coverage so I have to use it as a source

Pablo has him ranked 12th right now. In the seeded bracket, he would have been up against #5 (don't remember who that was) In the random bracketing, he could have been all over the place.

Yeah, Pablo is REALLY unimpressed. He needs to do something to make Pablo think he's got it in him. I pointed this out last week. Against Purdue, Byrd beats Boarman 5-4. A week later, Ayala techs him. Pablo sees that and says, Ayala looks a lot better. Things like this add up. Now, maybe Byrd has been taking it easy, and just doing enough to win and that's good enough. But if that is the case, he's going to need to show that is what he is doing.

If anyone is interested, here is an estimate from this week's Pablo. What I did was take the top 16 (in Pablo) and put them into a bracket. I did it two ways - 1) a seeded bracket, and 2) a randomly distributed bracket. I used the probably based on Pablo ratings to calculate (via Markov chain) the probability of winning given the bracket. For the random bracket, the value is the average of 50000 brackets. Pablo currently has Forrest as the clear favorite. Seeded Random 133:Oklahoma State_Jax Forrest 51.4% 48.5% 133:Virginia Tech_Aaron Seidel 28.7% 25.7% 133:Penn State_Marcus Blaze 6.2% 6.3% 133:Ohio State_Ben Davino 4.5% 5.6% 133:Iowa State_Evan Frost 3.8% 4.9% 133:Iowa_Drake Ayala 1.6% 2.1% 133:Arizona State_Kyler Larkin 0.8% 1.2% 133:Gardner-Webb_T.K. Davis 0.6% 1.1% 133:Northern Colorado_Dominick Serrano 0.4% 0.8% 133:West Virginia_Gunner Andrick 0.4% 0.7% 133:Stanford_Tyler Knox 0.4% 0.7% 133:Illinois_Lucas Byrd 0.3% 0.6% 133:Nebraska_Jacob Van Dee 0.3% 0.6% 133:Wisconsin_Zan Fugitt 0.2% 0.4% 133:Pennsylvania_Evan Mougalian 0.2% 0.4% 133:Virginia Tech_Dillon Campbell 0.1% 0.4%

Kind of defeats the purpose of increasing the points for a takedown and near fall.

If the winning wrestler has more points than the losing wrestler, it wouldn't get flagged. I could look to see if there are TB1 or TB2 with differences >1, but then again, assuming that TB1 or TB2 refer to the 30 s periods, there is not limit. In principle, there is a distinction between SV and TB, but I'm not sure if meet directors are consistent, so I don't make a distinction between them in Pablo. I treat all overtime matches the same. Thanks for your help. I have seen a lot of these are indeed OT wins, but not all of them even. I'm surprised no one has weighed in on Ferrari/Mirasola

Nominally, Trac and Flo could do that, too (although not necessarily a tie) but they need to be flagged as MFF or DQ. I know that a lot of the scores on the list are injury defaults that weren't specified as such (or it used a different format than my program was able to parse - this is the challege with Trac, I have to parse the outcome description and if something unusual shows up, the program doesn't handle it; Flo is a lot better in this regard) When I look for outcomes in trac, I look for keywords like inj. or MFF, etc. If they aren't included in the outcome, I will miss it.

From a broad strokes perspective, Pablo says, swap Seidel and Forrest (and tighten them up, like 23% and 22%) and probably Byrd and Ayala. I can't access anything right now so get more details (the higher weights are still running), but that's about it (maybe Davino ahead of Ayala but they are close enough.

That's why I asked here....if anyone wants to help I would appreciate it.

Works ok for duals (although it would nice to have obvious dates) but I can't access tournament results and that is most of them

1/3/2026,133:American_Max Leete:6,133:Cornell_Tyler Ferrara 1/3/2026,149:Morgan State_Eugene Harney:9,149:Oklahoma State_Kolter Burton 1/3/2026,165:The Citadel_Thomas Snipes:2,165:Navy_Dylan Elmore 1/4/2026,125:West Virginia_Louie Gill:6,125:Purdue_Ty Henderson 1/9/2026,184:South Dakota State_Brock Fettig:2,184:Harvard_Matthew Walsh 1/17/2026,149:UNC Pembroke_Jackson Lambert:5,149:Gardner-Webb_Gage Helms 1/24/2026,165:The Citadel_Parker Kearns:0,165:Virginia Tech_Ben Weader 1/24/2026,184:The Citadel_Jet Galbreath:0,184:Virginia Tech_Gunnar Garelli 1/25/2026,285:Brown_Alex Semenenko:2,285:Cornell_Ashton Davis 1/30/2026,125:Virginia Tech_Eddie Ventresca:2,125:NC State_Vincent Robinson 1/30/2026,149:Duke_SP O`Donnell:0,149:Virginia_Jack Myers 1/30/2026,285:Nebraska_AJ Ferrari:1,285:Penn State_Cole Mirasola 1/31/2026,174:Iowa_Leister Bowling:2,174:Wisconsin_David Mitrovich 1/31/2026,174:Virginia_Emmitt Sherlock:2,174:Central Michigan_Brayden Gautreau 1/31/2026,174:West Virginia_Michael Baldwin:1,174:Central Michigan_Brayden Gautreau 1/31/2026,197:Sacred Heart_Kevin Taylor:2,197:West Virginia_Coen Grimm 2/6/2026,125:Oregon State_Maximo Renteria:0,125:Arizona State_Damian Moreno 2/8/2026,125:Chattanooga_Cooper Flynn:0,125:Campbell_Colby Crouch 2/8/2026,174:Bucknell_Myles Takats:8,174:Navy_Danny Wask 2/13/2026,174:Northern Colorado_Murphy Menke:2,174:Wyoming_Riley Davis 2/15/2026,157:Wisconsin_Luke Mechler:3,157:Michigan_Cameron Catrabone 2/22/2026,285:West Virginia_Elijah Hunter:1,285:Maryland_Jackson Schwab

11/2/2025,141:North Carolina_Jayden Scott:1,141:Presbyterian_Ryan Luna 11/2/2025,184:Clarion_Adrian Gacek:0,184:EAP_Reese Spiro 11/8/2025,184:Utah Valley_Caleb Uhlenhopp:5,184:Iowa State_Tate Naaktgeboren 11/9/2025,285:North Dakota State_Drew Blackburn-Forst:2,285:North Dakota State_Shilo Jones 11/22/2025,141:Campbell_Zander Phaturos:4,141:Missouri Baptist University_Daryl Mills 11/22/2025,184:Air Force_Josh Cordio:2,184:Northern State_Tyson Lien 11/23/2025,141:Air Force_Brenden Barnes:0,141:Utah Valley_Smokey McClure 11/23/2025,165:Army West Point_Micah Hanau:1,165:Buffalo_Brady Unger 11/23/2025,174:California Baptist_Timothy Cowan:0,174:Menlo College_Isaiah Morales 11/23/2025,174:Rutgers_Lenny Pinto:2,174:Drexel_Jasiah Queen 11/23/2025,197:Air Force_Owen Heiser:0,197:Stanford_Luke Duthie 11/23/2025,285:Air Force_Antonio Ramos:0,285:Oregon State_Charley Hastriter 11/23/2025,285:California Baptist_Hunter Vander Heiden:0,285:Oregon State_Charley Hastriter 12/5/2025,141:Northwestern_Billy DeKraker:2,141:Navy_Caedyn Ricciardi 12/5/2025,184:Iowa State_Isaac Dean:2,184:Ohio_Sal Perrine 12/6/2025,184:Kent State_Holden Martin:3,184:Central Michigan_Cody Brenner 12/7/2025,141:Spartan Combat RTC_Elijah Cortez:2,141:Maryland_Ryan Kennedy 12/7/2025,157:Rutgers_Conner Harer:1,157:Maryland_Kal Miller 12/14/2025,141:Rider_Elijah Griffin:0,141:Oklahoma_Tyler Wells 12/19/2025,133:Northern Illinois_Markel Baker:0,133:Oregon State_Gabe Whisenhunt 12/20/2025,133:Drexel_Kyle Waterman:0,133:Cal Poly_Anthony Lucio 12/20/2025,133:Missouri_Gage Walker:1,133:Spartan Combat RTC_Isaiah Cortez 12/21/2025,133:Hofstra_Gauge Shipp:0,133:Virginia_Aiden Allen 12/29/2025,157:Rutgers_Conner Harer:2,157:Maryland_Kal Miller