Pablo

Well, back at conference tournaments, Pablo outperformed seedings in reflecting winners. Not by a lot, but it was statistically significant, so it's off to a good start. Unfortunately, I will be out of town next week (leaving Sunday) and won't be able to do a tournament debrief until the first week of April.

OK, I just figure if I can understand your concern, I can help. So three things I'd say 1) The rankings are the ranks only of those in tournament as compared to all of D1 2) NR just means I don't enough matches at that weight, but you can still use the rating to see where they would fit 3) Differences between the order of probability vs their Pablo ranking is due to differences in competition they face in the brackets, which reflects differences between Pablo rankings and seeds. If they were seeded by Pablo rankings () they'd line up better (not necessarily perfect because of anistropy, but close)

I'm not sure what your "divergence" concern is, though. Orine's rating gives him a win probability that's similar to those rated similarly. He's just behind Farber but his probability is better than Miller who's rated higher. This is all just an issue of matchups they face in the brackets, though. If we go with that 24ish ranking, that's actually consistent with his seed even. So while there is some difference between the order in terms of probability and in terms of rankings, I don't think Orine is really outside it, so I don't quite understand your concern. Given that it is only 5 matches, I'm actually pretty impressed that it came out as reasonable as it did. However, I've seen that in other places. My early calcs were done with a disaster of a dataset, where nothing was consistent. I had multiple entries for the same guys, because sometimes they be in Track as Josh and sometimes it's Joshua, or you have the Michael/Mike/Mikey variations. But amazingly, I'd run these calcs, and while Michael Smith had 12 matches and was rated 5300, Mike Smith would have 3 matches and would come in at 5150, and Mikey might have two matches and be sitting at 5500. So a single wrestler with different names, but the resulting ratings were extremely close, considering. I don't know how many matches we need here to get legitimate results, but I don't know if it's as many as I've seen required in other sports. In volleyball, for example, nothing is anywhere close until you get at least 10 or maybe even 15 matches. That's a good sign.

Yeah, no. I'm not going to chase down every stinking wrestler one at a time to get all their matches. I've got 4000 wrestlers in the database. It's not going to work. I've tried to go through all the teams (and I did go through NCState's schedule) but matches have slipped through the cracks. I've done my best, but until there's a better source, I'm going to miss things.

OK, let me see if I can help you out 1) The "Rankings" column is their overall ranking in Pablo rankings, so that's against the whole D1 field (of qualifying wrestlers). The wrestlers are listed in order of their win probability, but the Rankings column (the first one) is their rank within all of D1. The differences in how they come out is largely due to differences in matchups due to differences between Pablo and seeds. 2) It's certainly possible (actually certain) that I have missed matches here and there, but the biggest issue with Orine is that he has matches at 141. If you say he has 10, I'll believe you, but I only have 8 in the database, and 3 are at 141. However, you can still estimate his ranking by looking at this rating. His rating of 6973 puts him a smidge behind #23 Miller at 6981 but ahead of #24 Wells at 6876. Similarly, Teague Travis wrestled some at 157 but dropped to 149 for the Big 12 tournament. His rating of 7185 is between the guys at 20 and 22. ***I'll just put in here my PLEA for a better source for scores than having to plod through results on Track event by event and team by team. If ANYONE can come up with a solution, this will work so much better!!!!*** 3) The top 40 at each weight are listed in the Rankings thread. That list includes everyone eligible (>5 matches), whether they are red shirt or even non-D1. This list includes all the wrestlers going to nationals, but only those wrestlers. If there is a highly ranked person who isn't in the tournament, you won't see them here. In 133 for example, Pablo has Davino from OhSt at #4, but Bouzakis is representing tOSU (in fact, one of Davino's wins in the database was over Bouzakis at Edinboro!). So if you see a ranking missing in the list, you can cross reference against the top 40 in the other thread.

Necessary dose of realism: According to Pablo probabilities, Kasak has a 71% chance of making the semis, and Blaze has a 15% chance. If you go with my "I wouldn't be surprised" metric of 15%, I would say NOW that "I wouldn't be surprised" if Blaze were to pull the upset. I wouldn't expect it, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened. Would be an upset, for sure, but not a real shocker.

If you want to see more of the rankings for those wrestlers competing in the NCAA championships, see my new posts in the Probability thread. Includes rankings and ratings for the competing wrestlers outside of the top 40.

Ranking 285 Rating Finals Winner 1 285:Minnesota_Gable Steveson 11386 0.936 0.729 2 285:Oklahoma St_Wyatt Hendrickson 10528 0.489 0.158 3 285:Penn St_Greg Kerkvliet 10022 0.350 0.078 4 285:NC St_Isaac Trumble 9723 0.133 0.023 7 285:Lehigh_Owen Trephan 8658 0.021 0.003 6 285:Ohio St_Nick Feldman 8718 0.018 0.003 5 285:Michigan_Joshua Heindselman 8767 0.023 0.002 9 285:Arizona St_Cohlton Schultz 8497 0.009 0.001 11 285:Iowa_Ben Kueter 8293 0.007 0.001 12 285:Illinois_Luke Luffman 8264 0.005 0.000 14 285:Rutgers_Yaraslau Slavikouski 8110 0.002 0.000 10 285:Virginia Tech_Jimmy Mullen 8299 0.004 0.000 16 285:Maryland_Seth Nevills 7847 0.002 0.000 15 285:Pittsburgh_Dayton Pitzer 7875 0.001 0.000 20 285:Indiana_Jacob Bullock 7481 0.000 0.000 18 285:Cal Poly_Trevor Tinker 7608 0.000 0.000 21 285:Army_Brady Colbert 7437 0.000 0.000 25 285:South Dakota St_Luke Rasmussen 7004 0.000 0.000 30 285:Iowa St_Daniel Herrera 6850 0.000 0.000 24 285:Binghamton_Cory Day 7013 0.000 0.000 35 285:Ohio University_Jordan Greer 6746 0.000 0.000 27 285:Lock Haven_Gavin Hoffman 6958 0.000 0.000 31 285:North Carolina_Nolan Neves 6801 0.000 0.000 37 285:Cornell_Ashton Davis 6585 0.000 0.000 32 285:Purdue_Hayden Filipovich 6796 0.000 0.000 28 285:Stanford_Peter Ming 6899 0.000 0.000 33 285:Cleveland St_Daniel Bucknavich 6794 0.000 0.000 34 285:Northern Iowa_Lance Runyon 6789 0.000 0.000 41 285:Duke_Connor Barket 6488 0.000 0.000 44 285:Michigan St_Max Vanadia 6273 0.000 0.000 48 285:CSU Bakersfield_Jake Andrews 6089 0.000 0.000 57 285:Wyoming_Sam Mitchell 5817 0.000 0.000 77 285:Appalachian St_Stephan Monchery 5431 0.000 0.000

Ranking 197 Rating Finals Winner 2 197:Iowa_Stephen Buchanan 10095 0.743 0.389 1 197:Penn St_Josh Barr 10336 0.565 0.367 3 197:Michigan_Jacob Cardenas 9822 0.335 0.177 5 197:CSU Bakersfield_AJ Ferrari 8749 0.110 0.024 6 197:Illinois_Zac Braunagel 8688 0.034 0.009 13 197:Pittsburgh_Mac Stout 8284 0.048 0.007 7 197:Lehigh_Michael Beard 8519 0.022 0.005 11 197:Minnesota_Isaiah Salazar 8322 0.033 0.005 8 197:Little Rock_stephen little 8473 0.018 0.004 15 197:Northern Iowa_Wyatt Voelker 8172 0.028 0.004 18 197:Princeton_Luke Stout 8059 0.023 0.003 14 197:Oklahoma St_Luke Surber 8222 0.009 0.002 9 197:Nebraska_Camden McDanel 8402 0.007 0.002 10 197:Oregon St_Trey Munoz 8325 0.005 0.001 19 197:Northwestern_Evan Bates 7969 0.004 0.001 21 197:South Dakota St_Zach Glazier 7642 0.007 0.001 22 197:Wyoming_Joseph Novak 7435 0.003 0.000 24 197:West Virginia_Ian Bush 7413 0.002 0.000 26 197:Ohio St_Seth Shumate 7204 0.001 0.000 32 197:Virginia Tech_Andy Smith 7049 0.001 0.000 25 197:Stanford_Nikolas Stemmet 7283 0.000 0.000 33 197:Drexel_Mickey O'Malley 6991 0.001 0.000 28 197:Indiana_Gabe Sollars 7177 0.000 0.000 30 197:The Citadel_Patrick Brophy 7157 0.000 0.000 34 197:Michigan St_Remy Cotton 6989 0.000 0.000 39 197:Bucknell_Dillon Bechtold 6673 0.000 0.000 35 197:Campbell_Levi Hopkins 6937 0.000 0.000 49 197:Cornell_Michael Dellagatta 6284 0.000 0.000 41 197:Army_Wolfgang Frable 6580 0.000 0.000 45 197:Navy_Payton Thomas 6466 0.000 0.000 42 197:Appalachian St_Carson Floyd 6577 0.000 0.000 51 197:Rider_Brock Zurawski 6214 0.000 0.000 44 197:Lock Haven_Tucker Hogan 6490 0.000 0.000

Ranking 184 Rating Finals Winner 1 184:Northern Iowa_Parker Keckeisen 10360 0.839 0.547 2 184:Penn St_Carter Starocci 10026 0.763 0.364 3 184:Oklahoma St_Dustin Plott 8981 0.145 0.036 4 184:Minnesota_Max McEnelly 8901 0.116 0.036 6 184:South Dakota St_Bennett Berge 8449 0.058 0.009 8 184:Cornell_Chris Foca 8117 0.020 0.003 11 184:Maryland_Jaxon Smith 7770 0.010 0.001 9 184:Iowa St_Evan Bockman 7825 0.009 0.001 10 184:Iowa_Gabe Arnold 7773 0.007 0.001 12 184:Nebraska_Silas Allred 7691 0.007 0.001 14 184:NC St_Dylan Fishback 7608 0.005 0.001 15 184:Pittsburgh_Reece Heller 7541 0.006 0.000 13 184:Oklahoma_Deanthony Parker Jr 7667 0.004 0.000 18 184:Illinois_Edmond Ruth 7289 0.003 0.000 16 184:Wyoming_Eddie Neitenbach 7503 0.002 0.000 19 184:Rider_Isaac Dean 7243 0.002 0.000 21 184:Ohio St_Ryder Rogotzke 7179 0.002 0.000 22 184:Indiana_Donnell Washington 7104 0.001 0.000 26 184:North Carolina_Gavin Kane 6928 0.001 0.000 25 184:Edinboro_Jared McGill 6939 0.001 0.000 28 184:North Dakota St_Aidan Brenot 6793 0.000 0.000 23 184:Princeton_Kole Mulhauser 7008 0.000 0.000 30 184:Hofstra_Ross McFarland 6612 0.000 0.000 33 184:Rutgers_Shane Cartagena-Walsh 6567 0.000 0.000 32 184:Missouri_Colton Hawks 6591 0.000 0.000 36 184:Pennsylvania_Maximus Hale 6493 0.000 0.000 37 184:George Mason_Malachi DuVall 6491 0.000 0.000 35 184:Columbia_Nick Fine 6528 0.000 0.000 42 184:Bellarmine_Devan Hendricks 6259 0.000 0.000 43 184:Lock Haven_Colin Fegley 6233 0.000 0.000 46 184:West Virginia_Dennis Robin 6210 0.000 0.000 53 184:Lehigh_Caden Rogers 5982 0.000 0.000 76 184:Oregon St_TJ McDonnell 5474 0.000 0.000

Ranking 174 Rating Finals Winner 1 174:Missouri_Keegan O`Toole 10086 0.644 0.364 2 174:Penn St_Levi Haines 10025 0.505 0.307 3 174:Oklahoma St_Dean Hamiti Jr 9903 0.379 0.220 5 174:Nebraska_Lenny Pinto 8876 0.083 0.023 4 174:Iowa_Patrick Kennedy 8922 0.061 0.022 6 174:Ohio St_Carson Kharchla 8835 0.069 0.018 8 174:Ohio University_Garrett Thompson 8446 0.050 0.010 7 174:Illinois_Dan Braunagel 8504 0.043 0.009 10 174:North Carolina_Joshua Ogunsanya 8314 0.032 0.005 11 174:South Dakota St_Cade DeVos 8306 0.024 0.004 13 174:Cornell_Simon Ruiz 8176 0.027 0.004 9 174:Binghamton_Brevin Cassella 8355 0.015 0.004 15 174:Navy_Danny Wask 8120 0.015 0.003 12 174:Pittsburgh_Luca Augustine 8199 0.009 0.002 14 174:Stanford_Lorenzo Norman 8135 0.013 0.002 17 174:Bucknell_Myles Takats 7999 0.012 0.002 16 174:NC St_Matthew Singleton 8042 0.005 0.001 19 174:Oklahoma_Gaven Sax 7914 0.003 0.001 20 174:Iowa St_MJ Gaitan 7705 0.004 0.001 21 174:Northern Iowa_Jared Simma 7686 0.001 0.000 24 174:Minnesota_Clayton Whiting 7338 0.001 0.000 22 174:Virginia Tech_Lennox Wolak 7455 0.001 0.000 26 174:Little Rock_Tyler Brennan 7248 0.001 0.000 32 174:Central Michigan_Alex Cramer 7146 0.000 0.000 23 174:Pennsylvania_Nick Incontrera 7339 0.000 0.000 25 174:Rutgers_Jackson Turley 7258 0.000 0.000 42 174:Purdue_Brody Baumann 6905 0.000 0.000 34 174:Army_Dalton Harkins 7102 0.000 0.000 37 174:Drexel_Jasiah Queen 7007 0.000 0.000 38 174:Lock Haven_Avery Bassett 7004 0.000 0.000 40 174:Chattanooga_Sergio Desiante 6961 0.000 0.000 46 174:Maryland_Branson John 6715 0.000 0.000 48 174:Columbia_Jack McGill 6656 0.000 0.000

Ranking 165 Rating Finals Winner 1 165:Penn St_Mitchell Mesenbrink 11019 0.924 0.761 2 165:Iowa_Mike Caliendo 9937 0.666 0.188 3 165:West Virginia_Peyton Hall 8938 0.181 0.023 5 165:Utah Valley_Terrell Barraclough 8480 0.029 0.008 4 165:Missouri_Cam Steed 8572 0.017 0.005 10 165:Cornell_Julian Ramirez 8194 0.014 0.003 9 165:Arizona St_Nicco Ruiz 8334 0.038 0.003 8 165:Oklahoma St_Cameron Amine 8378 0.010 0.003 11 165:Minnesota_Andrew Sparks 8097 0.037 0.002 12 165:Michigan_Beau Mantanona 8067 0.033 0.002 13 165:South Dakota St_Drake Rhodes 7927 0.014 0.001 16 165:Illinois_Braeden Scoles 7719 0.014 0.001 15 165:Nebraska_Christopher Minto 7722 0.003 0.000 18 165:Army_Gunner Filipowicz 7597 0.002 0.000 17 165:Stanford_Hunter Garvin 7630 0.007 0.000 19 165:Ohio St_Paddy Gallagher 7497 0.005 0.000 23 165:Little Rock_Joseph Bianchi 7229 0.001 0.000 20 165:Northwestern_Maxx Mayfield 7337 0.001 0.000 22 165:Northern Iowa_Jack Thomsen 7246 0.001 0.000 21 165:Iowa St_Aiden Riggins 7280 0.001 0.000 26 165:Appalachian St_Will Miller 7003 0.000 0.000 31 165:Bucknell_Noah Mulvaney 6844 0.000 0.000 28 165:Columbia_Cesar Alvan 6961 0.000 0.000 32 165:NC St_Derek Fields 6656 0.000 0.000 33 165:Indiana_Tyler Lillard 6636 0.000 0.000 34 165:Virginia Tech_Mac Church 6606 0.000 0.000 30 165:Virginia_Nick Hamilton 6854 0.000 0.000 39 165:Hofstra_Kyle Mosher 6508 0.000 0.000 35 165:Pittsburgh_Jared Keslar 6589 0.000 0.000 47 165:Rider_Enrique Munguia 6290 0.000 0.000 46 165:The Citadel_Thomas Snipes 6298 0.000 0.000 58 165:Wisconsin_Cody Goebel 5996 0.000 0.000 100 165:Central Michigan_Chandler Amaker 5249 0.000 0.000

Ranking 157 Rating Finals Winner 1 157:Cornell_Meyer Shapiro 9442 0.601 0.416 2 157:Penn St_Tyler Kasak 9139 0.550 0.310 3 157:Ohio St_Brandon Cannon 8312 0.151 0.056 4 157:Nebraska_Antrell Taylor 8242 0.107 0.043 6 157:Virginia Tech_Rafael Hipolito Jr 8085 0.109 0.035 8 157:Purdue_Joey Blaze 8031 0.078 0.024 9 157:Northern Iowa_Ryder Downey 8018 0.061 0.022 11 157:Northern Colorado_Vinny Zerban 7978 0.054 0.019 7 157:Iowa_Jacori Teemer 8073 0.043 0.016 13 157:Little Rock_Matty Bianchi 7931 0.038 0.013 14 157:NC St_Ed Scott 7840 0.029 0.009 16 157:Northwestern_Trevor Chumbley 7684 0.037 0.009 19 157:Minnesota_Tommy Askey 7578 0.024 0.005 18 157:Maryland_Ethen Miller 7580 0.018 0.005 20 157:Pennsylvania_Jude Swisher 7550 0.016 0.004 23 157:Oklahoma St_Caleb Fish 7394 0.018 0.003 22 157:South Dakota St_Cobe Siebrecht 7445 0.012 0.003 24 157:Iowa St_Cody Chittum 7286 0.010 0.002 21 157:Central Michigan_Johnny Lovett 7469 0.007 0.002 25 157:Michigan_Chase Saldate 7226 0.006 0.001 26 157:Pittsburgh_Dylan Evans 7125 0.006 0.001 28 157:Oregon St_CJ Hamblin 7078 0.005 0.001 29 157:George Mason_DJ Mcgee 7057 0.004 0.001 27 157:Brown_Blake Saito 7086 0.003 0.001 30 157:North Carolina_Sonny Santiago 6940 0.003 0.000 33 157:Wyoming_Jared Hill 6871 0.003 0.000 31 157:Missouri_James Conway 6936 0.002 0.000 35 157:Lehigh_Logan Rozynski 6794 0.002 0.000 32 157:Stanford_Grigor Cholakyan 6895 0.002 0.000 37 157:Columbia_Richard Fedalen 6730 0.001 0.000 38 157:Chattanooga_Noah Castillo 6715 0.000 0.000 48 157:Harvard_James Harrington 6399 0.000 0.000 49 157:Northern Illinois_Landen Johnson 6387 0.000 0.000

Rank 149 Rating Finals Winner 1 149:Nebraska_Ridge Lovett 9400 0.464 0.319 2 149:Virginia Tech_Caleb Henson 9141 0.511 0.268 3 149:Penn St_Shayne Van Ness 9115 0.329 0.205 5 149:Iowa_Kyle Parco 8442 0.217 0.077 7 149:Illinois_Kannon Webster 8280 0.064 0.027 9 149:North Carolina_Lachlan McNeil 8187 0.052 0.021 11 149:Pennsylvania_Cross Wasilewski 7866 0.060 0.014 12 149:Oregon St_Ethan Stiles 7853 0.058 0.013 10 149:Northern Iowa_Colin Realbuto 7968 0.032 0.011 16 149:Little Rock_jordan williams 7734 0.044 0.009 13 149:Rider_Sammy Alvarez 7846 0.024 0.008 17 149:Ohio St_Dylan D`Emilio 7613 0.038 0.007 14 149:Cal Poly_Chance Lamer 7780 0.017 0.005 18 149:Stanford_Jaden Abas 7605 0.028 0.005 20 149:Iowa St_Paniro Johnson 7463 0.026 0.004 15 149:Princeton_Ty Whalen 7776 0.013 0.004 NR 149:Oklahoma St_Teague Travis 7185 0.004 0.001 25 149:NC St_Koy Buesgens 6919 0.004 0.000 22 149:George Mason_Kaden Cassidy 7131 0.002 0.000 28 149:Virginia_Jack Gioffre 6858 0.004 0.000 23 149:Cornell_Ethan Fernandez 6999 0.001 0.000 35 149:Lehigh_Malyke Hines 6726 0.002 0.000 34 149:Oklahoma_Willie McDougald 6733 0.002 0.000 36 149:Central Michigan_Mason Shrader 6726 0.002 0.000 27 149:Rutgers_Andrew Clark 6875 0.001 0.000 32 149:North Dakota St_Gavin Drexler 6754 0.000 0.000 38 149:Army_Trae McDaniel 6628 0.001 0.000 33 149:Wyoming_Gabe Willochell 6743 0.000 0.000 48 149:Michigan_Dylan Gilcher 6338 0.000 0.000 39 149:Northwestern_Sam Cartella 6584 0.000 0.000 46 149:Maryland_Kal Miller 6441 0.000 0.000 64 149:The Citadel_Carson DesRosier 6044 0.000 0.000 76 149:Campbell_Wynton Denkins 5733 0.000 0.000

Ranking 141 Rating Finals Winner 2 141:Nebraska_Brock Hardy 9225 0.504 0.307 1 141:Ohio St_Jesse Mendez 9273 0.447 0.284 3 141:Penn St_Beau Bartlett 8613 0.187 0.089 7 141:Northern Iowa_Cael Happel 8436 0.191 0.079 5 141:Minnesota_Vance Vombaur 8466 0.134 0.059 6 141:Oklahoma St_Tagen Jamison 8462 0.120 0.052 8 141:Northern Colorado_Andrew Alirez 8344 0.132 0.051 10 141:Navy_Josh Koderhandt 7979 0.091 0.028 11 141:Pennsylvania_CJ Composto 7977 0.039 0.013 9 141:Michigan_Sergio Lemley 8021 0.038 0.013 12 141:Iowa St_Jacob Frost 7877 0.034 0.009 13 141:Rutgers_Joesph Oliveri 7742 0.022 0.006 15 141:Virginia Tech_Sam Latona 7481 0.020 0.004 16 141:Lock Haven_Wyatt Henson 7370 0.011 0.002 19 141:Virginia_Dylan Cedeno 7227 0.005 0.001 27 141:Cornell_Joshua Saunders 6932 0.005 0.001 20 141:Columbia_Lorenzo Frezza 7155 0.002 0.000 22 141:Stanford_Jason Miranda 7056 0.002 0.000 21 141:Princeton_Eligh Rivera 7087 0.002 0.000 30 141:Gardner-Webb_Todd Carter 6764 0.003 0.000 24 141:Purdue_Greyson Clark 7007 0.002 0.000 29 141:Bucknell_Dylan Chappell 6834 0.002 0.000 23 141:Missouri_Josh Edmond 7009 0.002 0.000 31 141:Illinois_Danny Pucino 6747 0.001 0.000 28 141:South Dakota St_Julian Tagg 6842 0.001 0.000 40 141:North Carolina_Jayden Scott 6557 0.001 0.000 33 141:Drexel_Jordan Soriano 6716 0.001 0.000 34 141:Oklahoma_Mosha Schwartz 6716 0.000 0.000 38 141:West Virginia_Jordan Titus 6571 0.000 0.000 36 141:Pittsburgh_Briar Priest 6639 0.000 0.000 45 141:Campbell_Shannon Hanna 6450 0.000 0.000 53 141:Oregon St_Nash Singleton 6267 0.000 0.000 73 141:Bellarmine_aj rallo 5749 0.000 0.000

Ranking 133 Rating Finals Winner 1 133:Illinois_Lucas Byrd 8504 0.434 0.294 2 133:Iowa_Drake Ayala 8122 0.282 0.154 3 133:Little Rock_Nasir Bailey 8101 0.264 0.143 5 133:Northern Colorado_Dominick Serrano 7782 0.157 0.078 6 133:Virginia Tech_Connor McGonagle 7693 0.117 0.051 7 133:Ohio St_Nic Bouzakis 7585 0.095 0.039 11 133:Cal Poly_Zeth Romney 7510 0.079 0.034 14 133:Stanford_Tyler Knox 7460 0.068 0.028 10 133:Penn St_Braeden Davis 7517 0.063 0.027 12 133:Iowa St_Evan Frost 7481 0.068 0.026 9 133:Maryland_Braxton Brown 7550 0.057 0.025 13 133:Nebraska_Jacob Van Dee 7462 0.043 0.018 18 133:Rutgers_Dylan Shawver 7176 0.042 0.013 17 133:Indiana_Angelo Rini 7186 0.032 0.011 16 133:North Dakota St_Kyle Burwick 7286 0.027 0.010 19 133:Wisconsin_Zan Fugitt 7141 0.031 0.010 20 133:Lock Haven_Anthony Noto 7139 0.028 0.009 21 133:Northern Iowa_Julian Farber 7041 0.021 0.006 NR 133:NC St_Kai Orine 6973 0.018 0.005 25 133:North Carolina_Ethan Oakley 6866 0.012 0.003 23 133:Pennsylvania_Ryan Miller 6981 0.010 0.003 24 133:Minnesota_Tyler Wells 6876 0.012 0.003 27 133:Gardner-Webb_Takeo Davis 6720 0.008 0.002 29 133:Chattanooga_Blake Boarman 6707 0.007 0.002 32 133:Army_Ethan Berginc 6645 0.006 0.001 30 133:Bucknell_Kurt Phipps 6669 0.004 0.001 35 133:Cornell_Tyler Ferrara 6577 0.005 0.001 33 133:South Dakota St_Derrick Cardinal 6598 0.005 0.001 40 133:Missouri_Kade Moore 6456 0.003 0.001 45 133:Central Michigan_Sean Spidle 6363 0.003 0.000 51 133:Edinboro_Colton Camacho 6204 0.001 0.000 55 133:Cal Baptist_Hunter Leake 6031 0.000 0.000 121 133:Michigan_Nolan Wertanen 4597 0.000 0.000

Ranking 125 Rating Finals Winner 1 125:Purdue_Matt Ramos 9122 0.486 0.361 2 125:Penn St_Luke Lilledahl 8505 0.340 0.157 7 125:Arizona St_Richard Figueroa 8190 0.207 0.079 6 125:Virginia Tech_Eddie Ventresca 8220 0.134 0.071 3 125:Wisconsin_Nicolar Rivera 8356 0.119 0.067 4 125:Oklahoma St_Troy Spratley 8317 0.121 0.067 5 125:West Virginia_Jett Strickenberger 8237 0.097 0.052 8 125:Nebraska_Caleb Smith 8020 0.136 0.047 9 125:NC St_Vince Robinson 7936 0.115 0.037 11 125:Lehigh_Sheldon Seymour 7695 0.060 0.016 12 125:Princeton_Marc-Anthony McGowan 7623 0.039 0.010 10 125:Northern Colorado_Stevo Poulin 7703 0.025 0.010 14 125:Rutgers_Dean Peterson 7493 0.033 0.008 13 125:Ohio St_Brendan McCrone 7532 0.030 0.007 16 125:Northern Illinois_Blake West 7259 0.014 0.003 17 125:Pennsylvania_Max Gallagher 7248 0.014 0.003 18 125:Indiana_Jacob Moran 7228 0.005 0.001 22 125:Oklahoma_Antonio Lorenzo 7072 0.009 0.001 21 125:North Carolina_Spencer Moore 7116 0.005 0.001 19 125:Oregon St_Maximo Renteria 7183 0.004 0.001 25 125:Minnesota_Cooper Flynn 6946 0.003 0.001 36 125:Army_Charlie Farmer 6555 0.001 0.000 29 125:Northern Iowa_Trever Anderson 6707 0.001 0.000 32 125:South Dakota St_Tanner Jordan 6676 0.001 0.000 43 125:Iowa_Joey Cruz 6357 0.001 0.000 39 125:North Dakota St_tristan daugherty 6476 0.000 0.000 47 125:Pittsburgh_Nick Babin 6244 0.000 0.000 44 125:Virginia_Keyveon Roller 6300 0.000 0.000 53 125:Cal Poly_Koda Holeman 6088 0.000 0.000 56 125:Cornell_Marcello Milani 6044 0.000 0.000 58 125:CSU Bakersfield_Richard Castro-Sandoval 6033 0.000 0.000 67 125:The Citadel_Gylon Sims 5746 0.000 0.000 73 125:Michigan St_Caleb Weiand 5611 0.000 0.000

OK, it won't let me edit my posts from yesterday, so I am going to repost with a more detailed format that includes their Pablo ranking and ratings. Note that NR means that a wrestler does not have enough matches at the given weight (>5) to be included in my rankings. However, I did list their rating. Also, these might be a little different from what I posted above because I found a stack of matches that I had missed, and now they are included. It doesn't change a lot at the top, but I think some of the lower ranked wrestlers are going to be affected some.

Iowa

Yeah, I had a 0 at 149. That was important. Nebraska # of winners Probability 0 41.6% 1 43.1% 2 13.9% 3 1.4% 4 0.1% 5 0.0% 6 0.0% 7 0.0%

So to summarize Penn St: wouldn't be surprised if they have 1 - 4 winners Iowa: wouldn't be surprised if they have 0 - 2 winners Oklahoma St: 0 - 1 Nebraska: 0 - 2 Minnesota: 0 - 1 Northern Iowa: 0 - 1

Nebraska # of winners Probability 0 60.4% 1 35.2% 2 4.2% 3 0.2% 4 0.0% 5 0.0% 6 0.0% 7 0.0% Minnesota # of winners Probability 0 24.5% 1 67.7% 2 7.6% 3 0.3% 4 0.0% 5 0.0% 6 0.0% 7 0.0% Northern Iowa # of winners Probability 0 41.0% 1 52.6% 2 6.2% 3 0.2% 4 0.0% 5 0.0% 6 0.0% 7 0.0%

OK, here's something I don't know how to do analytically, so I ran simulations Penn St # of winners Probability 0 2.3% 1 14.7% 2 29.0% 3 29.7% 4 17.2% 5 5.8% 6 1.1% 7 0.1% So >50% chance of Penn St having at least 3 champs, and 4 wouldn't be a surprise (nor would 1) Iowa # of winners Probability 0 37.4% 1 43.4% 2 16.7% 3 2.4% 4 0.2% 5 0.0% 6 0.0% 7 0.0% Iowa with a 2/3 chance of at least one champion. Two wouldn't be a surprise, but a good chance they get shut out. Oklahoma St # of winners Probability 0 55.1% 1 35.9% 2 8.2% 3 0.9% 4 0.0% 5 0.0% 6 0.0% 7 0.0% Wouldn't be a surprise for OkSt to have a champ, but not expected. I tire of simulating....

One thing about Pablo is that it does like lots and lots of wins over middle level competition. For example, if you have 20 matches against opponents where you have like a 2500 Pablo point advantage (that's a 95% chance of winning each match), the probability of winning all 20 of those matches is only about 1/3. So he might not have had any wins against any top guys this year, but if you can win that many against middling guys, it means you must be doing something right. I just thought it was wild, 24 matches wrestling for SCRTC. He's going up against D1 competition and doing very well.

That would make sense, I think, considering he is with Spartan Combat. He wrestled in a boatload of open events (Kauffman, Mat Town I and II, Edinboro, just to name a few) Not sure how some meet managers decided he was with Univ of Central Florida (it's in a couple of meets, in fact)