Is Camacho vs Robinison a sure thing either? You figure with Robinson hurt since Vegas Camacho would be in there. Camacho's last match was November at 133 and he INJ Defaulted, so maybe his season is over.
I think the highest odds of Steveson not winning NCAAs (I'll go 5%) is that he just decides not to go to Big Tens and/or Philly. I can totally see a "j/k, just doing duals" out of him, though again 5%