A PSU fan's honest assessment of the team

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

Penn State is undefeated in duals and most likely will stay that way.  They will win the BIG10 dual title and probably win BIG10s individually too.  However, this team is not as strong as past teams -- deeper, yes, but I feel like the number of "locks" to win the title in March has declined compared to past years.

In past years it wasn't a question whether guys like DT, Taylor, Nolf, Nickal or Zain would win...it was a matter of whether they'd win the finals by tech or major.  This year's team doesn't have guys like that.  It seems ridiculous to say that about guys who could be 3x, 4x or 5x NCAA champs but it's true.

125 - Steen is a scrapper but tiny for the weight.  I don't think he qualifies for NCAAs as he would have to place top 8 at Big 10s to do so.  The Suriano Curse continues to haunt PSU.

133 - RBY, believe it or not, is the biggest "lock" for PSU to get a champ in March.  He has Fix figured out, so his biggest threat I think is actually Pat Glory due to unfamiliarity.  Still, I think RBY wins his 3rd.

141 - Bartlett is overrated.  He has great defense but he's got very little offense from neutral and from top.  I think he makes R12 at best.  He can stick with anyone in matches with his defense but against top guys (see Real Woods) he's not going to be able to score a TD and his opponents will.  Also, he never scores bonus points.

149 - Van Ness is also overrated, although he is a freshman.  Despite his pedigree he looks sluggish and unexplosive.  He shoots straight on which makes it easy to defend.  He's also not that great from bottom.  I think he goes 2-2 at NCAAs.  Maybe he's injured this year but I see him taking big steps next season.

157 - Haines I actually have the most upside on.  He's a freshman but he seems to have upperclassman strength.  Good neutral offense, can get out of bottom.  Seems to have decent defense even against funky guys like Siebrecht.  Already beat Will Lewan too.  I have him placing mid-AA (4-6) with a minute chance at making the finals.

165 - Facundo actually has nice neutral offense but he's easily tied up by guys like Kennedy.  Not much of a rider either.  With the right bracket I can see him making low AA.  I predict 7-8.  Needs to gain some strength it seems.

174 - Starocci is still the favorite although Brands showed you can slow him down significantly with the right tactic.  Guys like Labriola or Lewis could upset him. Don't forget about 22-1 Ed(mond) Ruth!

184 - Brooks I put at #2 most likely to repeat for Penn State.  He did lose to Coleman and Hidlay will be a threat again, but he's been looking really solid.

197 - Dean took a few losses earlier this year but has stabilized.  He rode Warner easily but gets in a lot of close matches.  A bigger 197er like Elam or Laird could take him out in March.

HWT - Kerk looks bigger and better this year.  He's finally beating Cassioppi although he's shown he is prone to gassing.  Parris gassed him out and other big HWTs may employ the same strategy.  With smart match management I have him as a finalist.

 

Overall my final predictions are as follows:

125 NA

133 champ

141 R12

149 2-2

157 5th place

165 7th place

174 runner-up

184 champ

197 3rd

HWT runner-up

 

PSU still wins the team title

[Wrestleknownothing]

fair assessment

[SocraTease]

Until he is beaten, Starocci still has to be a favorite to repeat. 

While a few guys can slow him down,  he has yet to be taken down this entire year. 

His defense is exceptional and he can ride and win close matches when need be.

I think he returns to a higher offensive output in the last five matches.  

And we know he has the match with Indiana's Donnell Washington  (who beat him his freshman year) circled on his calendar this Sunday in addition to a tough bout against Ohio State's Ethan Smith on Friday.

Cael should have him ready.  

As for Penn State's sputtering offense, which a lot of people have been talking about (see FLO's FRL), I don't know why they aren't looking for cradles recently, something that Ruth, DT, Nickal, Cenzo, Quentin Wright, and Nolf were always aware of.   Surprisingly, RBY got one against Iowa, and he is not known as a cradler. 

Look for some greater offense and some techs and pins against Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, and Clarion in the final four duals, which will provide confidence heading into B1Gs and NCAAs.

 

[Elevator]

2 hours ago, SocraTease said:

Until he is beaten, Starocci still has to be a favorite to repeat. 

While a few guys can slow him down,  he has yet to be taken down this entire year. 

His defense is exceptional and he can ride and win close matches when need be.

I think he returns to a higher offensive output in the last five matches.  

And we know he has the match with Indiana's Donnell Washington  (who beat him his freshman year) circled on his calendar this Sunday in addition to a tough bout against Ohio State's Ethan Smith on Friday.

Cael should have him ready.  

As for Penn State's sputtering offense, which a lot of people have been talking about (see FLO's FRL), I don't know why they aren't looking for cradles recently, something that Ruth, DT, Nickal, Cenzo, Quentin Wright, and Nolf were always aware of.   Surprisingly, RBY got one against Iowa, and he is not known as a cradler. 

Look for some greater offense and some techs and pins against Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, and Clarion in the final four duals, which will provide confidence heading into B1Gs and NCAAs.

 

Jimm C has some very good analysis and I think your replies are mostly interesting and inciteful.  I think Bartlett and Facundo will have more motion and attacks at NCAA's.  I love the upside of Haines and he has a real shot at AA - but not yet there on a finalist or even the semis.  Hope I am wrong!  Not jumping on the Starocci skeptic train - all he does is win, win, win no matter what.  Also think Kerk wins 285 and Dean is top 3 and as good a chance as any for 1st.