The COVID Wealth Transfer

[Wrestleknownothing]

I think this chart sums up the impact of the NCAA's decision to take away a year of eligibility from the 2016 high school graduating class (approximately) and transfer it to the 2017 and beyond classes (approximately) in college wrestling.

Using Willie's Big Board data, out to his top 100 ranked recruits I show the number of All-American honors won by each high school graduating class.



Notes:

• The 2016 graduating class was poised to become the most decorated of the era before the NCAA decided to cancel the 2020 tournament. As it stands, without their final year of eligibility they were only 1 AA behind 2014, equal with 2015, and 5 AA's ahead of 2013.
   
• The 2017 - 2019 classes effectively received an extra redshirt allowing them to complete their careers a year older than they would have otherwise. While not all took advantage of the extra year, enough did that is shows up in the data.
   
• Curiously, the 2020 class, the direct beneficiaries of the fifth year, did little with it. While 40 of the 100 still have remaining eligibility, only 11 of the 40 have AA'd in the past. The class of 2020 is likely to finish with 50 - 55 AA's.
  
   
• The class of 2021 is a bloodbath. With only 16 total AA's from 9 wrestlers among the top 100 through four years, it is not looking good. The story can be told by its top 2 ranked high schoolers. Paddy Gallagher and Alex Facundo have zero AA's between them. While Facundo still has two years left (3? who really knows for sure at this point?) and Gallagher still has one, even if they AA out it will be historically low.

[Wrestleknownothing]

BTW, I haven't taken the time to research it, but there was a single true freshman AA this year (Luke Lilledahl), does anyone know the last time that happened?

[jchapman]

8 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

BTW, I haven't taken the time to research it, but there was a single true freshman AA this year (Luke Lilledahl), does anyone know the last time that happened?

I know Dean Hamiti was the single true freshman AA in 2022, but I do not know if it happened in 23 or 24.

[Wrestleknownothing]

38 minutes ago, jchapman said:

I know Dean Hamiti was the single true freshman AA in 2022, but I do not know if it happened in 23 or 24.

OK, now I took the time.

In the last ten tournaments only twice has there been a single true freshman AA. Lilledahl this year and Hamiti in 2022. In 2024 there were 6 true freshman AA's (the most) while the rest of the years had between 2 and 4.

Shout out to @cowcards for making this so easy to find (https://wrestling.guru/college-men/ncaa-d1/ncaa-d1-database/)

[Dark Energy]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

BTW, I haven't taken the time to research it, but there was a single true freshman AA this year (Luke Lilledahl), does anyone know the last time that happened?

What about Ruiz from Cornell?  Not counting due to Grey shirt?

[Dark Energy]

Your data is stark and sad.  I do not understand the reasoning for the free covid year.  Not impacting eligibility.
 

What was the logic?  Can someone remind me?  

Seems poorly thought through.

[TNwrestling]

29 minutes ago, Dark Energy said:

Your data is stark and sad.  I do not understand the reasoning for the free covid year.  Not impacting eligibility.
 

What was the logic?  Can someone remind me?  

Seems poorly thought through.

I mean, the thinking was they canceled the NCAA tournament that year and wanted to give the athletes a year to make up for losing a year. 

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

33 minutes ago, Dark Energy said:

Your data is stark and sad.  I do not understand the reasoning for the free covid year.  Not impacting eligibility.
 

What was the logic?  Can someone remind me?  

Seems poorly thought through.

The NCAA lost a ton of money in 2020 from not having March Madness basketball.  

The NCAA couldn't afford to lose out on football revenue and basketball revenue in the 2020-2021 school year, but they realized there would be reluctance on the part of athletes to waste a year of eligibility if the season did not happen or was cancelled midway through.

They countered this by assuring athletes that participating in 2020-2021 would not harm their eligibility, ensuring that most athletes would agree to play and that the NCAA would get their normal revenue streams. (Don't forget that in the 2020-2021 school year, it didn't seem to be guaranteed that a full season could go off without a hitch)

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

9 minutes ago, TNwrestling said:

I mean, the thinking was they canceled the NCAA tournament that year and wanted to give the athletes a year to make up for losing a year. 

It was all about football and basketball money.

[Wrestleknownothing]

56 minutes ago, Dark Energy said:

What about Ruiz from Cornell?  Not counting due to Grey shirt?

Correct. He is part of the 2023 graduating class, whereas Lilledahl is part of the 2024 graduating class. Similarly, I would say 2013 was the last year with no true freshman AA's as Garrett took a grey shirt.

[Wrestleknownothing]

18 minutes ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

The NCAA lost a ton of money in 2020 from not having March Madness basketball.  

The NCAA couldn't afford to lose out on football revenue and basketball revenue in the 2020-2021 school year, but they realized there would be reluctance on the part of athletes to waste a year of eligibility if the season did not happen or was cancelled midway through.

They countered this by assuring athletes that participating in 2020-2021 would not harm their eligibility, ensuring that most athletes would agree to play and that the NCAA would get their normal revenue streams. (Don't forget that in the 2020-2021 school year, it didn't seem to be guaranteed that a full season could go off without a hitch)

this

[GimJustafan]

1 hour ago, Interviewed_at_Weehawken said:

It was all about football and basketball money.

bingo

[Interviewed_at_Weehawken]

2 minutes ago, GimJustafan said:

bingo