Does PSU come back to Earth?

[BruceyB]

@Wrestleknownothing what is PSU's win percentage in the semis and finals during Cael's tenure? At risk of sounding like our good friend Jimmy, I am genuinely curious if this is the year that PSU's insane winning percentage in toss-ups at the NCAAs come back down to Earth.

125: Lilledahl has to beat Smith for a third time, and then win another difficult match in the final.

141:Bartlett will have a tough match against Jamison in the quarters, likely Mendez in the semis, and then another difficult match in the finals.

149: SVN just lost to Webster, and as the #3 seed, he needs to overcome an earlier loss against Lovett to exceed his seed.

157: Kasak is the #1 seed but I would consider him and Shapiro at minimum a toss-up.

165: Mesenbrink is a sure favorite.

174: Haines definitely could win, but he has to beat both Hamiti and O'Toole, each which I think would be his best two wins in his collegiate career.

184: Starocci is the favorite, but for whatever reason, I think Keck gets the job done this year. He just has so many ways to score.

197: Barr's injury is unknown, but if he isn't 100% he could definitely lose in the quarters.

285: Kerk is the favorite to make the final, but he's not winning, and will likely be in a dog fight against Hendrickson.

This isn't meant in any way to be a hater post against Penn State, but I can't recall a year where they seemed to be fighting such an uphill battle for wrestlers to make the finals or win the whole thing. I'm curious to see how their overall semis/finals winning percentages over the last 15 years compare to what happens this week.

[Wrestleknownothing]

This data was sent to me by someone on HVI who tracks this for the obvious reason.

Cael Sanderson's coaching record in the semis and finals is other worldly.

First Semi-finals (minimum 15 overall wins):

Next Finals (minimum 10 wins):

The numbers when the lower seed in the semi-final (win 57.89% of time)or the final (win 58.33% of the time) are hard to believe.

[BruceyB]

51-10 in the semis is absolutely ridiculous. 

40-2 when the higher seed is even more insane.

But I am curious, do you think with the seeds this year that PSU reverts closer to the norm? Or are you standing by the PSU bump? As I stated in my original post, I think this year may be more humbling for the PSU faithful than in recent years. They'll still easily win the title, but I do think they need to overperform to crown more than 3 champs this year. A ridiculous bar that they have created for themselves.

[TylerDurden]

If they simply perform to seed, they'll have four champs. 

If that happens, they only need two guys to overperform their seed by one spot to have six champs. 

Non-No. 1 seeds: Davis (8), Bartlett (2), Van Ness (3), Haines (2), Barr (4), Kerkvliet (3)

Looking at the brackets, there is a non-zero (but still very much unlikely) chance that they could get all 10 guys into the finals. I personally don't think that will happen, but I wouldn't think you're completely insane if you said it would happen. 

It really is an insanely high standard they've set.  

 

[BruceyB]

  On 3/18/2025 at 7:57 PM, TylerDurden said:

It really is an insanely high standard they've set. 

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This is my purpose of the post. If they fall short, it just brings them back down to reality. What they've done over the last decade plus is just unheard of. This year just seems like they may regress to the mean more than in recent years. If they continue their ridiculousness this year, I will just have to defer to the penn state bump from here on out.

[Elevator]

Some good analysis - I think it likely that PSU does not maintain the finals and semis % rates as per above for the reasons noted.   Also likley PSU still cruises to team title and has multiple champs, finalists and high AA's.

[Richferg]

What would be a failure?  Only 3 finalists? Only 2 champions. What if they combine that with 8 or 9 or 10 AA’s. And win by 40-50 points. Not so much of a disappointing weekend, do you think?

[BruceyB]

  On 3/19/2025 at 4:07 PM, Richferg said:

What would be a failure?  Only 3 finalists? Only 2 champions. What if they combine that with 8 or 9 or 10 AA’s. And win by 40-50 points. Not so much of a disappointing weekend, do you think?

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They'll win the title without any challengers. But they also have 10 wrestlers that are going in believing they can win a national title. PSU's winning percentage in the semis is an absurd 83%. If they all of the sudden have a number of wrestlers on the backside after Friday night, that would be a disappointment by their own standards they have created.

[Richferg]

  On 3/19/2025 at 4:53 PM, BruceyB said:

They'll win the title without any challengers. But they also have 10 wrestlers that are going in believing they can win a national title. PSU's winning percentage in the semis is an absurd 83%. If they all of the sudden have a number of wrestlers on the backside after Friday night, that would be a disappointment by their own standards they have created.

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I guess I would be real surprised if the penn state kids did not go into Philly with realistic expectations. All 10 could win, but they know they are seeded 3, or 4, or 8 for a reason