Regular Season Rankings Wrap-Up: What does WrestleStat know, and when did they know it?

Wrestleknownothing · 2025-02-25T17:53:30Z

With the regular season of wrestling completed we have our final rankings before the conference tournaments. We all have a lot of information about every wrestler. Surely a consensus has been formed at this point.

Penn State now stands at a whopping 8.8 expected AAs using yesterday's Flo rankings. Even the website owned by a well known PSU antagonist has them at an expected 8.6 AAs. These are both season highs.

Is The End Nigh?

The end is nigh.

Penn State will put an end to wrestling as we know it. After PSU lays waste to the landscape and salts the earth behind them, every other school will cancel its wrestling program within 24 hours in despair. PSU has sown the wind and now they shall reap the whirlwind. Or at least that is what some will lead you to believe. After all, this kind of domination is bad for the sport. It has always been bad for the sport. No sport can sustain a dynasty. And nothing will ever change. Do not bother looking up the history of college wrestling. Just trust me on this point.

After all PSU will absolutely, 100%, without any doubt, and with total certainty finish with 10 All-Americans to match the mighty 2001 Minnesota Golden Gophers. After all, all 10 wrestlers are now ranked in the top 8 by both Flo and Intermat. I have even heard tell of a an ancient manuscript found in a cave on Mount Nittany by a foreign traveler that prophesizes the addition of an eleventh weight this year just so PSU can lay waste to that record too.

Enter Our Hero

But wait. Isn't there a third major set of rankings? One that uses an inscrutable algorithm? An algorithm they may, or may not, take into account phases of the moon, astrological signs, and input from tarot card readers? Indeed there is. And what say you, WrestleStat, seer of seers, prognosticator of prognosticators?

Well, now that is interesting. WrestleStat has PSU at 7.8 expected AAs, 1 full AA lower than Flo.

And the source of that difference in expectations can be traced to two wrestlers. Luke Lilledahl and Braeden Davis. WrestleStat has Lilledahl four places lower and out of the AA positions. The comparison is even tougher for Davis at seven to nine spots lower and also loosing in the round of 16.

But why is WrestleStat to be believe? Well, it turns out they were the only ones who saw Davis for what he wound up being last year. Prior to the conference tournament they had him ranked 14th (even after he only rose to 5th). Meanwhile Intermat took him from 9th to 1st after the conference tournament.

Perfect 10 aka The Bo Derek of Wrestling (for the old men in the crowd)

So, who is right this year? Will PSU finish with 10 (or 11?) AAs this year? Or will we see a stumble along the way?

For what it is worth, my model gives them a 22.4% chance if Flo is right, but only a 2.3% chance if WrestleStat is right. Braeden Davis goes from a 76% chance to AA as a 4 seed (Flo) to a 19% chance as a 13 seed (WS). Big swing.