NCAA Tourney Projections Based on Rankings - Nebraska Edition

[Scouts Honor]

On 1/4/2023 at 12:59 PM, Wrestleknownothing said:

Nor should they. Husker's gonna Husker cuz Husker should Husker.

dont even start to think that we are rutgers fans 

[BerniePragle]

1 hour ago, Tigerfan said:

I remember a few years back where Headshuck, I think, pointed out the statistical difference between a team with 10 qualifiers vs one with 5, even if those five were all highly seeded. 10 possible scorers made it less likely they would score less than projected points, due to unseeded guys scoring more than expected, while highly seeded guys have way more room to underscore rather than over score their projections. Something like that anyway. Wkn’s method seems to codify that principle very well. 
 

Mizzou this year is a great example, with 4 guys ranked between 9-11. Much more likely that they push 1 or 2 of those guys into AA scoring position even though traditional projections would almost completely discount them. 

Much like the way the Yankees are pretty much crowned WS champs every year before the season starts, yet come October they never fail to underachieve even if they at least make the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Phillies, Cubs, Natinals (remember the shirts!), or some other team overachieves.
It's only logical (to BP anyway) if a lot is expected of you, it's much easier to disappoint than to exceed expectations.  And vice versa.
@Wrestleknownothing always does a great job of showing us, mathematically, what we think intuitively ought to be the case.  That's extra cool.  He can even show us when our intuition can deceive us, and how.  He's a handy feller to have around, that's for sure.

[MPhillips]

29 minutes ago, BerniePragle said:

He's a handy feller to have around, that's for sure.

That cat is...