New EIWA Dual Meet Championship

[Voice of the Quakers]

https://www.eiwawrestling.org/sports/wrest/2024-25/releases/20241120cwsrxp?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

After the departures of Rutgers, Syracuse, Wilkes, etc., for various reasons, I thought the EIWA had great balance as a combination of the Ivy League and the Patriot League wrestling schools. This new format almost seems to invite the Patriot League teams to follow the Ivy League right out of the EIWA. Note that F&M is the only team in the Independence Division that has been in the EIWA since 2011.

Independence Division	Patriot Division
Binghamton Drexel Franklin & Marshall Hofstra Long Island University Morgan State Sacred Heart	American Army West Point Bucknell  Lehigh Navy

[bracketbuster]

I believe you need at least 6 teams to have a conference AQ for NCAA qualifying. Pac 12 right now has 4 but is in a two year grace period or they will lose their AQ(s). Somebody can correct me if I am wrong on that.

I think this dual championship is just a Patriot vs. Independence Champion thing at the end of the year. I don't think second place wrestles second, third vs. third, etc. So most years I would think it will be Lehigh vs. Independence Champion. Would be cool to potentially see 2v2, etc. as now everybody kind of has to leave an open date on their schedule on the chance they win their division but only 2 out of 12 teams will use that date or weekend for this.

If anything the "Independence" teams should form their own conference as they would be guaranteed 10 qualifying spots with those seven teams. Those 7 schools have won 45 automatic qualifier spots at the conference championships since 2017 (7 years). This is partially skewed because LIU only joined recently and Morgan State has yet to compete in an EIWA Championship.

Also, I was looking at rankings on FloWrestling and I am hesitant to write this because I feel like they take some unnecessary ridicule and maybe I am just adding to it but it is really too much to ask that Flo knows which college teams go in which conference: https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/12986049-2024-25-eiwa-conference-wrestling-rankings/50979-125-pounds

They apparently missed the memo that Morgan State joined the EIWA during both of their first two ranking periods.

[feet2back]

On 11/21/2024 at 10:00 AM, Voice of the Quakers said:

https://www.eiwawrestling.org/sports/wrest/2024-25/releases/20241120cwsrxp?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

After the departures of Rutgers, Syracuse, Wilkes, etc., for various reasons, I thought the EIWA had great balance as a combination of the Ivy League and the Patriot League wrestling schools. This new format almost seems to invite the Patriot League teams to follow the Ivy League right out of the EIWA. Note that F&M is the only team in the Independence Division that has been in the EIWA since 2011.

Independence Division	Patriot Division
Binghamton Drexel Franklin & Marshall Hofstra Long Island University Morgan State Sacred Heart	American Army West Point Bucknell  Lehigh Navy

Probably better off just wrestling Lehigh vs All Star team from conference...RIP EIWA

[BigRedFan]

49 minutes ago, feet2back said:

Probably better off just wrestling Lehigh vs All Star team from conference...RIP EIWA

Looking at wrestlestat's tournament rankings, Lehigh would outscore the rest of the EIWA by a lot.

(and Cornell would outscore Lehigh, the rest of the EIWA, and the Ivy League, combined)

[Wrestleknownothing]

33 minutes ago, BigRedFan said:

 

(and Cornell would outscore Lehigh, the rest of the EIWA, and the Ivy League, combined)

Nope. Wrestlstat has that at Cornell 53 - Lehigh, the reset of EIWA and the rest of Ivy 60.8.

Personally, I think the wrestlestat tournament algo is too binary.

I see it this way using the different rankings.

So Cornell could beat any one of those groups, but no two of them, never mind three.

[BigRedFan]

40 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Nope. Wrestlstat has that at Cornell 53 - Lehigh, the reset of EIWA and the rest of Ivy 60.8.

Lord, I can no longer do simple arithmetic.  Sigh...

As of today's wrestlestat Tournament ranking:

Cornell:  53.00

Other Ivy:  10.10

Lehigh:  35.80

Other EIWA:  15.00

What ranking are you looking at with your table wrt wrestlestat?  Not that this really matters!

[Gambatte]

On 11/21/2024 at 10:00 AM, Voice of the Quakers said:

Note that F&M is the only team in the Independence Division that has been in the EIWA since 2011.

Independence Division	Patriot Division
Binghamton Drexel Franklin & Marshall Hofstra Long Island University Morgan State Sacred Heart	American Army West Point Bucknell  Lehigh Navy

Of course, you mean, F&M is the only team ….. that’s been in the EIWA since before 2011. F&M joined the EIWA in 1948 and has had a wrestling program since 1923.

[Wrestleknownothing]

56 minutes ago, BigRedFan said:

Lord, I can no longer do simple arithmetic.  Sigh...

As of today's wrestlestat Tournament ranking:

Cornell:  53.00

Other Ivy:  10.10

Lehigh:  35.80

Other EIWA:  15.00

What ranking are you looking at with your table wrt wrestlestat?  Not that this really matters!

Oh, it is a whole thing.

Each column in my table is using the rankings from the different ranking services (Flo, Intermat, Wrestlestat), but instead of assuming first will place first, second will place second, etc. like they each do when coming up with their team scores, I base it on historical outcomes. 

The average points scored (placement, advancement, and bonus) by a #1 seed in my look back period is 19.7, less than what wrestlestat assumes (20+bonus). They also do bonus at the individual wrestler level, while I do it at the seed level.

As an aside, they somehow have Penn State with zero bonus points. Meanwhile, they assume 18.8 bonus points for Iowa.

The net result is they over value high seeds and undervalue low seeds. This really penalizes the Ivy-ex-Cornell and EIWA-ex-Lehigh groups The extreme example is they assume the 32 and 33 seeds will score zero points. But, by definition one of them will have at least one point. And empirically the 33 seed will score 2.1 points while the 32 will score 1.5 on average.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

If anyone still cares, it looks like wrestlestat fixed their bonus point problem for PSU this week. They now are projecting 19.1, instead of zero. And Iowa's bonus prediction was cut in half (18.8 to 9.4).