Advanced analytics in NCAA Wrestling

[WrestlingRash]

I'm sure many of you have heard about the football coach who never punts and always onsides kicks. For those who haven't: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1849595-high-school-coach-who-never-punts-explains-his-strategy

 

In MLB, there has been an emphasis on home runs and a de-emphasis on batting average because of analytics.

In basketball, there is an emphasis on 3 point shots because of analytics.

Is wrestling lagging behind the analytics revolution? 3 point takedowns have started to balance out the value of certain scoring events, but I have a hunch that there is a huge edge that is being ignored because of traditional thinking and because its risky - top wrestling. Hear me out. 

What % of matches does wrestler A win when he turns wrestler B for a 4 point near fall? How likely is it that after turning someone once that you are able to turn them again? How much time do we spend on top wrestling during practice? If your partners in your room are beasts on top, will you become really good on bottom, negating the risk of being turned? What if a program spent 90% of their time mat wrestling and 10% on neutral? I think neutral is the emphasis in most rooms, it certainly was in mine. Should wrestling coaches consider choosing top every time? The other possibility is a pin, which in duals has a HUGE value. The risk is an escape in most cases, so maybe the upside is greater than the risk? In basketball you only have to shoot 30% from 3 to make high volume 3 point shooting make sense. I wonder about the rates in wrestling. 

 

Long post, I know, so the summarize - is wrestling overlooking the high potential value of top wrestling while also under developing top wrestling skills?

Edited October 29 by WrestlingRash

[cowcards]

If you want to go through and score matches, I'll gladly add it to my site so that peeps can do some analysis on it. I know a couple businesses have attempted to do this, Quant is the only one I can think of off the top of my head. It takes too much manpower to do it as you'd have to get someone to watch every match and score it to get that kind of data. You could take a program like MatBoss or Takedown to score it and output the data.

[GimJustafan]

https://www.3dwrestlerstats.com/

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, GimJustafan said:

https://www.3dwrestlerstats.com/

Seems like this site last updated in 2020. 

[WrestlingRash]

I wonder if it is possible to put theoretical values on being on top like the guy who wrote the paper who influenced the coach who never punts? 

 

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf

 

Someone smarter than me with numbers could probably do a theoretical model. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

24 minutes ago, WrestlingRash said:

I wonder if it is possible to put theoretical values on being on top like the guy who wrote the paper who influenced the coach who never punts? 

 

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~dromer/papers/JPE_April06.pdf

 

Someone smarter than me with numbers could probably do a theoretical model. 

The model is less difficult than getting the data necessary to build the model.

[Caveira]

7 hours ago, WrestlingRash said:

3 point takedowns

I think stamina plays a much bigger part in wrestling than bball or football fwiw.  It’s hard to overlay gassing…. Or fear of gassing …… which imo is far more likely in wrestling than most other listed sports.    You can change the points but you can’t change the fact that 7 minutes of wrestling is much harder than a full football game or 20 bball games.   Plus you get tons of rest and can sub people in and out like crazy (football) 
 

sarcasm joke…. Maybe I’m wrong.  Didn’t the Indy qb take himself out of the game for being tired this weekend lol.   

[MPhillips]

1 hour ago, Caveira said:

I think stamina plays a much bigger part in wrestling than bball or football fwiw.

Indeed.

The Avg. FB play is four seconds. The Avg. time the ball is in play is eleven minutes over an entire game...

[Caveira]

21 minutes ago, MPhillips said:

Indeed.

The Avg. FB play is four seconds. The Avg. time the ball is in play is eleven minutes over an entire game...

I’ll over exaggerate. I was not a great college wrestler.  .500 ish win %.  I couldn’t squeeze more stamina out of my body if you paid me.   Go ahead and make a td 30303030 points…. Doesn’t matter imo at least for me.  
 

That’s why I think the 3 pt td didn’t change the quality of the match … just the score.   Maybe messenbrink.  Or Gilman. Or brands.  Or ironside.  Or kolat.  Or Cale…. But that’s the top few.  The rest imo don’t change all that much.   (I know I’m skipping a few)…..   

a wrestler has always been incentivized to win.   That is the top of the sport.   Changing points doesn’t change that motive.  I was taught in the 80s.  If u   Can get the td…. And escape u can’t lose.  Making a td more points doesn’t change that equation.   We talk about incentivizing points.   That’s from a fans perspective more than a competitors (imo).   

pre edit.   I love the tech guys doing ai/ml modeling for things.   Don’t stop doing that.  That’s cool af.   

Edited Wednesday at 01:48 AM by Caveira