Why is the US getting a disproportionate number of first round matchups vs #1 seeds?

[cowcards]

47 minutes ago, bnwtwg said:

Well I may be wrong but some quick napkin math tells me there can be up to 3 returning world champs per weight (one  UWW weight below, oly weight, up a UWW weight).

Weights with defending champs, oly weight listed first. Cut down in bold and bump up italicized

On paper, the toughest weight and only with three defending champs was WFS 68kg and we saw what the wrecking ball known as Amit Elor did to that bracket. Overall, only three brackets have multiple defending champs and two do not have a defending champ (both MFS).

So as of today, out of 5 champs across 9 weights (excluding Elor obviously) the US has drawn into 4 defending. 45% of matches were against the best in the business right off the bat. If that's not the textbook definition of "tough draw" then I don't know what is, short of being Elor and being literally the best in the world yourself.

MFS

57 Micic (57, withdrew)

65 Musukaev (65), Retherford (70)

74 None

86 None

97 Tazhudinov (97)

125 Zare (125)

WFS

50 Susaki (50)

53 Fujinami (53)

57 Sakurai (57)

62 Tynybekova (62)

68 Tosun (68), Ozaki (65), Elor (72)

76 Kagami

 

GR

60 Sharshenbekov (60)

67 Orta (67)

77 Makhmudov (77)

87 Cengeiz and Losonczi (87 double champs), Huseynov (82)

97 Rosillo (97)

130 Mirzazadeh

 

Thanks for this. I didn’t realize you were talking defending champs. I thought you were talking a champ at any point. Tracking you now. 

Another aspect to think about is that anyone that won at a non-only weight wouldn’t be seeded because they didn’t have enough points at the only weight. So if you’re seeded you can only draw a non-ply weight champ and if you aren’t seeded you can only draw an oly weight champ.  

[neweruser69]

Just wait until Dake has Chamizo/Kadi for his first two matches. Then we can complain. 

[Spladle08]

4 hours ago, neweruser69 said:

Just wait until Dake has Chamizo/Kadi for his first two matches. Then we can complain. 

Chamizo, and Frank is shocking the WORLD 
I hope. 
But for really, put them on opposite sides

[GrandOlm]

One seeds aren't necessarily the best wrestlers, many top guys don't care about ranking series tournaments.

Coon had the worst draw possible, yes. Could he have medaled if he swapped places with Jello. Maybe if wrestled his best tournament and had a lot of luck. That whole side was a lot parity. Mantas, Meng, Acosta all one oned each other. I think Acosta would beat Coon though. It doesn't help that Coon has below average par terre defense. So like 25% chance he medals, even on the easy side. 

Bey had the best guy at the weight (with a heavily taped up leg), but lower weight class greco is volatile and he didn't take his chances and didn't get pulled back in. 

Jacobson had a weight class with Losonczi, Komarov, Bisultanov, Novikov, Cengiz, and Zhan. All of them at least a level above Jacobson and all capable of beating each other. The best guy among them is probably Zhan by small margin, Jacobson got placed away from Zhan and in the half with more of the names. Don't think the draw made a difference. He's run into them eventually.

Rau is not good enough to medal. Doesn't matter what draw you give him. If you can only comfortably beat like 2 other entrants in a 16 man bracket and 3 of them can smoke you, what is there to say?