Penn State has 9/10 starters ranked in the top 10 Intermat

[Wrestleknownothing]

14 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

So if I’m reading that correctly, PSU during Cael has had 82%, 82%, 70%, and 100% of its top 4 seeds meet or exceed their seeds, respectively. That seems phenomenal to me. While I understand probabilities and the resulting math would say 7 champs out of 9 top 4 seeds is “unlikely”, the eye test would lead me to not being shocked in the slightest. 

You do read that correctly.

But if the question is how many champs, then at or better for 2-4 seeds doesn't exactly address it. But this does. They have had 57 top 4 seeds since 2011, of those 32 have won it all (56%). So, 9 top 4 seeds would suggest 5 champs.

Still a lot.

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

53 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Using the above probabilities it comes out to 4-ish champions. Seven would be a big outlier, even for PSU.

A guy like Haines (at peak form) could be that 4th champ

[TylerDurden]

I know this is a Cinnabon thread, but the fact that we're even entertaining the idea that PSU could be in play for 70% of the individual national champions speaks to the current state of that program. 

I do not think seven is going to happen, but IMO they have guys at 157, 165, 174, 197 and HWT who could win the title and are big favorites at three weights. Hell, there is a chance they could put seven in the finals if Bartlett and Truax come through. 

Ten AAs is on the table, for sure. 

On first thought, I see them like this:

125 - wild weight, but I don't think Davis is a sure AA, much less a national champ. - R12/Low AA

133 - Nagao would need some things to go wild in the bracket to win, but he's a dangerous wrestler who can ride. - AA

141 - Bartlett is good and is going to AA, probably pretty high and could even make the final. I'm just not convinced that he's going to beat Woods and/or Mendez in the same tournament. IMO his style makes him vulnerable to close matches versus guys like Happel, Jack, etc., which makes for a tough NCAA tournament. - AA

149 - Kasak/Evans, whoever, isn't winning the title. If it's Kasak, I think he's likely a R12, mainly because I don't think 149 is all that daunting this year and there are a ton of young guys. I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck into a low AA -  R12

157 - Haines could win it all, though there are plenty of landmines at 157. - AA

165 - Mesenbrink is 100% a title contender, but beating Carr, O'Toole, Hamiti  is a tall task and he'll likely need to beat at least two of them in the NCAA tournament. After watching him dismantle Amine, I wouldn't put it past him. - AA

174 - Starocci is the favorite. - AA

184 - 184 is pretty fluid, to me. Truax is a likely AA and could make the final with the right draw. AA

197 - Brooks is the favorite - AA

HWT - Kerk is the favorite - AA

[Tigerfan]

21 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

You do read that correctly.

But if the question is how many champs, then at or better for 2-4 seeds doesn't exactly address it. But this does. They have had 57 top 4 seeds since 2011, of those 32 have won it all (56%). So, 9 top 4 seeds would suggest 5 champs.

Still a lot.

So in that scenario, 5 would be expected. The question then is how many integers from 5 would be shocking? Surely not ONE? So if 6 then isn’t shocking, maybe some might feel that TWO or 7 would also not be shocking? Surprising sure, but shocking? 
 

Maybe I’m just more difficult to be shocked by anything. 

[Wrestleknownothing]

8 minutes ago, Tigerfan said:

So in that scenario, 5 would be expected. The question then is how many integers from 5 would be shocking? Surely not ONE? So if 6 then isn’t shocking, maybe some might feel that TWO or 7 would also not be shocking? Surprising sure, but shocking? 
 

Maybe I’m just more difficult to be shocked by anything. 

It comes to 5.04. So over simplifying a bit that is like saying a 96% chance of 5 and a 4% chance of 6, and a 0% chance of 7. 

Or you could ascribe some non-zero, but still very small probability of 7, and that would shrink the probability of 6.

But, you are not wrong about that probably understates the true probability of 7. I am looking at historical data. There is no history, until there is. Stuff without precedence always happens before there is precedence.

[feet2back]

PSU needs to run the 149lber out of town...A #12 ranking is just not getting it done!

[1032004]

26 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

It comes to 5.04. So over simplifying a bit that is like saying a 96% chance of 5 and a 4% chance of 6, and a 0% chance of 7. 

Or you could ascribe some non-zero, but still very small probability of 7, and that would shrink the probability of 6.

But, you are not wrong about that probably understates the true probability of 7. I am looking at historical data. There is no history, until there is. Stuff without precedence always happens before there is precedence.

These would be my probabilities:

Starocci 99%
Brooks 95%
Kerk 80%
Haines 40%
Bartlett 30%
Mesenbrink 15%
Davis 8%
 

So you multiply them all together for the total probability right?    That would be 0.1%
 

[Jimmy Cinnabon]

34 minutes ago, feet2back said:

PSU needs to run the 149lber out of town...A #12 ranking is just not getting it done!

He's really a 141 pounder wrestling up a weight

[Wrestleknownothing]

16 minutes ago, 1032004 said:

These would be my probabilities:

Starocci 99%
Brooks 95%
Kerk 80%
Haines 40%
Bartlett 30%
Mesenbrink 15%
Davis 8%
 

So you multiply them all together for the total probability right?    That would be 0.1%
 

That would be the probability of those seven, yes.

[Thumper]

On 1/24/2024 at 11:18 AM, Jimmy Cinnabon said:

I think Mesenbrink is likely to end the year in the top 5.  Probably not Kasak though.

I think you give yourself too much credit when you say "I think".