Finally got around to figuring out bonus points

[Wrestleknownothing]

Using the match by match data from 1988 to 2021 and then adjusting for expected increases in bonus points given the three point takedown, I finally got around to working up bonus point estimates by seed.  So now I can estimate total team scores rather than just advancement and placement. Of course there will be variation, but let's not let that stop us from making a fool of ourselves.

I know some people thought PSU had a shot at the total points record this year, but boy is that looking unlikely at this point. And even with Van Ness it was looking improbable. 

Using the latest round of rankings from Intermat and the new estimates we get the following scores out to 20 places:

 

• While the team race is not exactly close, it is also not quite the blowout it was expected before the season started when PSU was favored to more than double second place. 
• To reach 170.5 (the record adjusted for current scoring methods) PSU will need Braeden Davis (currently not ranked at 125) to make a big splash AND to significantly outperform their seeds (they often do) AND score a lot more bonus points than normal (not really this version of PSU's especiality). Call me skeptical. A 49 point gap is just too big.
• It feels like there are 9 or 10 (I see you anOSU) teams with a realistic shot at the podium. That should make it one of the more exciting tournaments in a long time.

[Wrestleknownothing]

I am guessing that after the Nebraska Iowa dual Iowa will be the sixth team to be favored to finish second.

[1032004]

PSU lost their chance at the record when Van Ness got hurt.  But I still think they had a good shot with him.  They would have needed Mesenbrink to place top 4 or so, who is currently only ranked 10th.  Truax could very well win but is currently only ranked 5th.  Kasak does not appear to be in the Intermat rankings but just beat #15.  Davis should score some points but you never know with 125.

Edited January 13 by 1032004

[1032004]

The most interesting race is definitely the race for 2nd though.   Crazy that 9 teams are within 16 expected points 

[Idaho]

After watching Messenbrink lately, there is no doubt he is an AA and top 6.... Davis will score a few points at 125 and with that weight, anything could happen. Of all of them, I think Kasak is probably that doesn't score many at the NCAA. 

Yeah.... 2-6 in the team race will be a fight.