2023-2024 Lineup Look

[nhs67]

Currently it looks like this will be the starters... any thoughts, questions, or curiosities to these (Wrestlestat's Starters w/ their ratings listed)?

125 - #7 DeAugustino, Michael
133 - #9 Cannon, Chris
141 - #9 Ragusin, Dylan
149 - #75 Mayora, Fidel
157 - #9 Lewan, Will
165 - #3 Amine, Cameron
174 - #3 Griffith, Shane
184 - #27 Rogers, Rylan
197 - #89 Yatooma, Brendin
285 - #5 Davison, Lucas

I don't necessarily think everyone listed will be the starter by season's end (or beginning for that matter).

Curious what folks expectations are, or might be?  Mine will follow.

[nhs67]

So here is what the 'roster' breakdown currently is, per Wrestlestat

125
                
#7 - DeAugustino , M. - SR         
#91 - Tanefeu , C. - SO         
#114 - Wertanen , N. - RSFR         
#133 - Horwath , C. - FR         
                
133
                
#9 - Cannon , C. - JR         
#136 - Tanefeu , W. - SO         
                
141
                
#9 - Ragusin , D. - JR         
#47 - Jerore , N. - RSFR         
#186 - Lemley , S. - FR         
                
149
                
#75 - Mayora , F. - JR         
#186 - Gilcher , D. - FR         
                
157
                
#9 - Lewan , W. - SR         
#201 - Mantanona , B. - FR         
#201 - Gulacha , A. - FR         
#201 - Ramsey , Z. - FR         
#326 - Wesselman , A. - SO         
                
165
                
#3 - Amine , C. - JR         
#118 - Mattin , Z. - SO         
#247 - Consuelos , J. - SO         
                
174
                
#3 - Griffith , S. - SR         
#91 - Khawaja , C. - RSFR         
#92 - Knudten , J. - RSFR         
#154 - Owens , C. - FR         
                
184
                
#27 - Rogers , R. - RSFR         
#37 - Walker , J. - JR         
#119 - McKenna , M. - JR         
                
197
                
#89 - Yatooma , B. - JR         
#52 - Bullock , J. - JR         
#70 - Striggow , B. - SR         
#101 - Cummings , J. - RSFR         
#128 - Trost , L. - RSFR         
#130 - Walters , H. - FR         
                
285
                
#5 - Davison , L. - SR         
#69 - Jenkins , I. - RSFR         
#118 - Nugent , K. - SO         
#125 - Khurshidov , D. - SO         
#225 - Jordan , A. - SO

[nhs67]

125

Early Favorite: M. DeAugustino
Contender(s): None
Spot Starter(s): C. Tanefeu, C. Horwath
B1G Prediction: M. DeAugustino
NCAA Prediction: Mid AA (3-6)

I think we see DeAuggie man the spot when it matters aside for when he needs rest.  I expect the smaller Tanefeu to get some spot starts here and there.  I hope we can see Horwath getting reps down at 125 as I do expect him to get the Rogers treatment.  Spot starts at 125/133 to get his five (5) weigh-ins done.  I think DeAuggie keeps the injury and HEW bug away and he brings home hardware.

133

Early Favorite: C. Cannon
Contender(s): None
Spot Starter(s): W. Tanefeu, C. Horwath
B1G Prediction: C. Cannon
NCAA Prediction: Mid AA (3-6)

Much the same as above, just with Cannon and the 'larger' Tanefeu.  Horwarth and possibly Lemley to get spot starts, although I expect Lemley to be 141/149 on his spot starts.

141

Early Favorite: D. Ragusin
Contender(s): N. Jerore
Spot Starter(s): S. Lemley
B1G Prediction: D. Ragusin
NCAA Prediction: Mid AA (3-6)

Ragusin likely gets the nod here unless he redshirts (which he has the option to).  Perhaps they play around with Lemley as an option here until it is decided on Ragusin (rumor is it is not yet).  With 149 being the 'up-in-the-air' weight, I expect Lemley at 141 for the sake of bumping for at least some of his five (like Rogers).  I also don't think Ragusin redshirts unless Lemley comes in and blows some shit up.  To be clear, I only believe Jerore is a contender because Ragusin might still use a redshirt.

149

Early Favorite: F. Mayora
Contender(s): D. Gilcher
Spot Starter(s): S. Lemley
B1G Prediction: D. Gilcher
NCAA Prediction: R12/R16

I fully expect Mayora to get the nod to start the season.  I don't know that he will at the end of the season.  Gilcher is ready to go straight out of the gate and while Lemley may be undersized... he might be as well.  If either Gilcher or Lemley show signs of awesomeness and can limit injury or Frosh burnout... I do expect one to get the nod at B1Gs.  Hopefully that decision can be made a good while prior to B1Gs for qualification/seeding purposes.  I think NCAAs as a true frosh at 149 is going to be a helluva grind and will wear on Gilcher when the time comes.

157

Early Favorite: W. Lewan
Contender(s): None
Spot Starter(s): B. Mantanona
B1G Prediction: W. Lewan
NCAA Prediction: Mid AA (3-6)

Like other weights, the obvious favorite is already written in stone.  I expect Mantanona to get spot starts at both 157 and 165 to get to his five weigh-ins.  I don't care what you say, Lewan can win this weight.  He has that potential.  Will he?  No.

165

Early Favorite: C. Amine
Contender(s): None
Spot Starter(s): B. Mantanona, Z. Mattin, J. Consuelos
B1G Prediction: C. Amine
NCAA Prediction: Contender/Mid AA (1-6 range)

Calling my shot here.  Having Griffith in the room will help him take that next step.  I expect a spot start or two from Mattin and the obvious 'donor' spot start or three for Consuelos if not at this weight then 157 or 174... whichever route he goes.  Mantanona should get a look or two in at 165 as well.

174

Early Favorite: S. Griffith
Contender(s): None
Spot Starter(s): Z. Mattin, J Consuelos, J. Knudten
B1G Prediction: S. Griffith
NCAA Prediction: Contender/Mid AA (1-6 range)

Yeah... I think Griffith could win it all at 174... with or without Stalrocci there.  We could see some amalgamation of spot starters... depending on Griffith's load.

184

Early Favorite: R. Rogers
Contender(s): J. Walker
Spot Starter(s): C. Khawaja
B1G Prediction: R. Rogers
NCAA Prediction: Low AA/R12 (6-R12 range)

I think Rogers will take some lumps... but health permitting could contend for a high AA spot.  I think R12/Low AA is more realistic at this point and that is what we will see.  Walker settling in and getting some starts to alleviate load will help down the line... but might hurt seeding and AQ chances... so placing at B1Gs might be of a high priority.

197

Early Favorite: None
Contender(s): B. Yatooma, B. Striggow, J. Bullock, J Cummings, H. Walters
Spot Starter(s): See Above
B1G Prediction: J. Bullock
NCAA Prediction: R12/R16

There is no favorite so there is no spot starters.  If Walters cements himself as a clear favorite... expect him to get the nod.  I still believe in Bullock and without weight management should be able to focus on wrestling and cement himself as a clear starter - thus allowing Walters to complete a redshirt.  I had put Trost as 197, however the UofM roster page has him at HWT at this point.

285

Early Favorite: L. Davison
Contender(s): None
Spot Starter(s): I. Jenkings, L. Trost
B1G Prediction: L. Davison
NCAA Prediction: Contender (1-4 range)

I think Davison does it.  Beats Kerk when it matters as well as Hendrickson to win a NC.

So for those chasing the rabbit...

125 - 5th, 10 + 1 = 11 points
133 - 4th, 12.5 + 1 = 13.5 points
141 - 3rd, 13.5 + 0 = 13.5 points
149 - R16, 0.5 + 0 = 0.5 points
157 - 5th, 10 + 0 = 10 points
165 - 3rd, 13.5 + 1 = 14.5 points
174 - 3rd, 13.5 + 1 = 13.5 points
184 - 7th, 6.5 + 0 = 6.5 points
197 - R12, 2 + 0 = 2 points
285 - 1st, 20 + 1 = 21 points
Total - 106 points

I did use wrestlestat to 'project' the bonus point totals, so there you have that.  This is optimistic, I think.  Very small chance to improve, but I think we could expect an average of 2-3 positions lower per wrestler.  Right now the average is 10.1 points per wrestler (sans bonus), which is somewhere just above 5th per wrestler.  If you drop 2-3 you could get 7th-8th points per average on wrestlers... which would be as high as 65 but as low as 55... sans bonus, obviously - from an unbiased perspective.

Biased perspective?  They're taking home a trophy and breaking that century mark with a PSU team taking home 1st while coming pretty damn close to breaking the all-time scoring record.

[nhs67]

Any chance a Grad Transfer comes in for any of the weights in question?

[Lipdrag]

Thank you, nhs, for the write ups.  

[nhs67]

50 minutes ago, Lipdrag said:

Thank you, nhs, for the write ups.  

Feel free to throw in thoughts, questions, concerns, etc.

[Sheerstress]

Nice thorough analysis.  Pretty spot on with what I am seeing right now, although I really don't like to speculate about how things will go in March, given how much can happen between then and now.  

All depends on whether everyone stays healthy, hungry for the top spot on the podium, and how 149 and 197 work out.

[nhs67]

6 minutes ago, Sheerstress said:

Nice thorough analysis.  Pretty spot on with what I am seeing right now, although I really don't like to speculate about how things will go in March, given how much can happen between then and now.  

All depends on whether everyone stays healthy, hungry for the top spot on the podium, and how 149 and 197 work out.

My Gilcher homer-isms are based on two things, for what it is worth...

He has never really cut weight.  He won his most recent state title at 150, but wrestled down and up throughout the season.  He will have a set weight at UofM and won't be asked to fluctuate too much.

He has the pedigree to succeed.  His brother... with what most would consider is lesser coachigng... is coming through for Indiana right about now (I am actually hoping he joins him next season at UofM as a Grad Transfer at 165 with Amine going up his senior season to 174... honestly either at 174 would make me happy I think).

[Sheerstress]

I would hope that Gilcher gets to redshirt his first year.

Any knowledge as to whether they've had any luck trying to get a certain CK athlete to use his remaining eligibility second semester?  A real long shot at best, but would be the perfect answer for that weight.

[nhs67]

15 hours ago, Sheerstress said:

I would hope that Gilcher gets to redshirt his first year.

Any knowledge as to whether they've had any luck trying to get a certain CK athlete to use his remaining eligibility second semester?  A real long shot at best, but would be the perfect answer for that weight.

That would be awesome, although I doubt that Bono would let him go.  He has the say-all, end-all authority.