Wrestleknownothing Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Based on 2010 - 2022 here are the win probabilities by seed: Applying those to this year's seeds we get the following expected number of champs. Who wants to take the under for PSU? It is only 9.8 because I lopped off all the non-zero win probabilities that round to 0.0 (12 schools) Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nhs67 Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 Well, if you round - here is what you get. Penn State - 2 Iowa - 1 Cornell - 1 Pittsburgh - 1 Iowa State - 1 Michigan - 1 Nebraska - 1 Northern Iowa - 1 North Carolina - 1 Using LOGIX this is what we get. 125 - Spencer Lee, Iowa 133 - Roman Bravo-Young, Penn State 141 - Cole Matthews - Pittsburgh 149 - Johnny Diakomihalis, Cornell 157 - Austin O'Connor, North Carolina 165 - David Carr, Iowa State 174 - Mikey Labriola, Nebraska 184 - Parker Keckeisen, Northern Iowa 197 - Max Dean, Penn State 285 - Mason Parris, Michigan If I did an over/under of 3.5 for this being accurate I would go the under. 1 "I know actually nothing. It isn't even conjecture at this point." - me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brock Kehler University, West Virginia Class of 2025 Committed to West Virginia Projected Weight: 285
Matt Botello Wyoming Seminary, Massachusetts Class of 2025 Committed to North Carolina Projected Weight: 141
Jason Kwaak Brentwood, New York Class of 2025 Committed to North Carolina State Projected Weight: 165
Liam Hickey Cardinal Gibbons, North Carolina Class of 2025 Committed to North Carolina Projected Weight: 133
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