Last year three #1 seeds lost before the finals: Lilledahl in the quarters to Seymour, Kasak in the quarters to Blaze, and Cardenas in the semis to Barr. Four more-- Hardy, Henson, O'Toole, and Steveson-- lost in the finals. Only three #1 seeds won it all: Byrd, Messenbrink, and Starocci.
Let's set some over/unders for #1 seeds based on last year:
1.5 lose in quarters or earlier
3.5 lose in semis or earlier
3.5 are champions