Pablo Posted March 16 Posted March 16 As I've noted, one of the great things about Pablo rankings (ratings) is that they are predictive in terms of outcomes. I recently posted examples of how Pablo ratings work in terms of predicting outcomes, and, basically, the bigger the rating difference between wrestlers, the more likely the higher rated wrestler is to win, and there is an analytical relationship that we can use to determine the probability of each wrestler winning. With that background, I have done an analysis of the NCAA championship brackets to determine the probability of each wrestler advancing to the next round. For the first round, this is easy, because it's just the chance of winning that opening round match, but for the subsequent rounds, you have to take into account the probability of the guy getting out of the previous round and who is opponent is going to be, which depends on all their probabilities of advancing. Don't worry, the math to do this is pretty straightforward, albeit tedious, but I have done it. A couple of things to note 1) I've included the Pablo probabilities for the preliminary match, but in order to simplify the calculation, I only considered the (Pablo) favorite. Assume that the advancement probabilities for the other wrestler are lower (maybe by about half) 2) This only considers advancement through the championship bracket. It is way too hard to do the consolation bracket 3) From my perspective, I usually consider a probability of 0.15 or greater to be "not a surprising outcome." Basically, it's like rolling a 6 sided die. Yeah, it's unlikely that you will roll a 4, but are you surprised if a 4 shows up? Not at all. So that's how I interpret the result. Also, if you look at it in terms of rounds and weightclasses, you got 50 outcomes total, so it wouldn't be crazy to see at least one wrestler with a less than 5% chance of making it to a given round making it. Of course, what round and what weight class that will happen is completely unknown, so you can't say who is going to do it, but don't be surprised if a highly unlikely outcome occurs. 4) I know that some don't like the formatting, but I have included all 33 wrestlers and all 5 rounds in the same post. Sorry, it would be a mess otherwise.
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 125 Prelim Jace Schafer 0.307 Mack Mauger 0.693 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Luke Lilledahl 0.946 0.872 0.761 0.576 0.415 Mack Mauger 0.054 0.023 0.008 0.001 0.000 Jett Strickenberger 0.514 0.056 0.023 0.006 0.001 Ezekiel Witt 0.486 0.050 0.020 0.005 0.001 Maximo Renteria 0.702 0.283 0.040 0.010 0.003 Ayden Smith 0.298 0.068 0.005 0.001 0.000 Kael Lauridsen 0.174 0.063 0.004 0.001 0.000 Dean Peterson 0.826 0.586 0.138 0.056 0.021 Troy Spratley 0.903 0.679 0.399 0.157 0.083 Andrew Binni 0.097 0.028 0.004 0.000 0.000 Conrad Hendriksen 0.245 0.036 0.006 0.001 0.000 Vincent Robinson 0.755 0.256 0.097 0.022 0.007 Stevo Poulin 0.692 0.322 0.152 0.046 0.020 Diego Sotelo 0.308 0.089 0.026 0.005 0.001 Tyler Chappell 0.090 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 Sheldon Seymour 0.910 0.574 0.313 0.114 0.056 Nic Bouzakis 0.918 0.663 0.527 0.421 0.225 Sulayman Bah 0.082 0.019 0.006 0.002 0.000 Kysen Terukina 0.201 0.027 0.009 0.003 0.000 Jacob Moran 0.799 0.291 0.188 0.122 0.045 Tyler Klinsky 0.682 0.321 0.081 0.039 0.009 Davis Motyka 0.318 0.096 0.013 0.004 0.000 Brady Roark 0.140 0.034 0.002 0.000 0.000 Jore Volk 0.860 0.548 0.174 0.099 0.029 Nico Provo 0.735 0.424 0.206 0.063 0.015 Cooper Flynn 0.265 0.089 0.023 0.003 0.000 Nicolar Rivera 0.351 0.138 0.044 0.008 0.001 Marc-Anthony McGowan 0.649 0.349 0.161 0.046 0.010 Koda Holeman 0.307 0.090 0.032 0.005 0.001 Spencer Moore 0.693 0.328 0.182 0.055 0.013 Desmond Pleasant 0.195 0.063 0.020 0.003 0.000 Eddie Ventresca 0.805 0.519 0.332 0.127 0.039 This is relatively more competitive than the other weight classes, we will see. But still it's Lilledahl and Bouzakis as the favorites. Pablo is not big on Ventresca.
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 133 Prelim Carter Schmidt 0.556 Andrew Austin 0.444 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Jax Forrest 1.000 0.990 0.986 0.646 0.599 Carter Schmidt 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 T.K. Davis 0.574 0.007 0.004 0.000 0.000 Zan Fugitt 0.426 0.003 0.002 0.000 0.000 Dominick Serrano 0.813 0.557 0.006 0.000 0.000 Blake Boarman 0.187 0.066 0.000 0.000 0.000 Will Betancourt 0.302 0.077 0.000 0.000 0.000 Markel Baker 0.698 0.300 0.002 0.000 0.000 Kyler Larkin 0.594 0.503 0.034 0.001 0.000 Garrett Grice 0.406 0.318 0.014 0.000 0.000 Sean Spidle 0.397 0.055 0.000 0.000 0.000 Evan Mougalian 0.603 0.124 0.002 0.000 0.000 Jacob Van Dee 0.564 0.015 0.006 0.000 0.000 Julian Farber 0.436 0.008 0.003 0.000 0.000 Luke Willochell 0.006 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 Aaron Seidel 0.994 0.975 0.939 0.352 0.305 Marcus Blaze 0.967 0.890 0.633 0.343 0.033 Gabe Whisenhunt 0.033 0.011 0.001 0.000 0.000 Gage Walker 0.540 0.057 0.014 0.002 0.000 Ethan Berginc 0.460 0.042 0.009 0.001 0.000 Tyler Ferrara 0.451 0.081 0.010 0.001 0.000 Zach Redding 0.549 0.116 0.017 0.003 0.000 Marcel Lopez 0.058 0.016 0.001 0.000 0.000 Drake Ayala 0.942 0.787 0.315 0.127 0.006 Lucas Byrd 0.693 0.465 0.078 0.016 0.000 Dylan Shawver 0.307 0.146 0.011 0.001 0.000 Braxton Brown 0.541 0.220 0.020 0.002 0.000 Maximilian Leete 0.459 0.169 0.013 0.001 0.000 Tyler Knox 0.550 0.096 0.065 0.017 0.000 Gunner Andrick 0.450 0.065 0.041 0.009 0.000 Gable Strickland 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 Ben Davino 0.985 0.837 0.771 0.477 0.056 Forrest and Seidel are the favorites. Should be exciting.
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 141 Prelim Aldo Hernandez 0.502 Matthew Martino 0.498 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Jesse Mendez 0.999 0.983 0.952 0.865 0.783 Aldo Hernandez 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Caedyn Ricciardi 0.435 0.006 0.002 0.000 0.000 Ryan Jack 0.565 0.011 0.005 0.001 0.000 Joey Olivieri 0.702 0.315 0.010 0.003 0.001 Nash Singleton 0.298 0.079 0.001 0.000 0.000 Tom Crook 0.183 0.060 0.001 0.000 0.000 Vance Vombaur 0.817 0.545 0.030 0.011 0.004 Luke Stanich 0.878 0.776 0.529 0.081 0.047 Pierson Manville 0.122 0.063 0.017 0.000 0.000 Tyler Wells 0.453 0.066 0.016 0.000 0.000 Luke Simcox 0.547 0.095 0.026 0.001 0.000 Wyatt Henson 0.545 0.177 0.052 0.002 0.001 Julian Tagg 0.455 0.131 0.034 0.001 0.000 Jordan Titus 0.109 0.030 0.004 0.000 0.000 Anthony Echemendia 0.891 0.661 0.324 0.034 0.016 Brock Hardy 0.965 0.829 0.650 0.406 0.072 Dario Lemus 0.035 0.008 0.002 0.000 0.000 Haiden Drury 0.373 0.045 0.015 0.003 0.000 Braeden Davis 0.627 0.118 0.053 0.015 0.001 CJ Composto 0.696 0.255 0.052 0.013 0.000 Lorenzo Frezza 0.304 0.062 0.006 0.001 0.000 Gable Porter 0.209 0.094 0.013 0.002 0.000 Vince Cornella 0.791 0.589 0.210 0.089 0.007 Nasir Bailey 0.782 0.490 0.155 0.050 0.003 Braden Basile 0.218 0.072 0.009 0.001 0.000 Dylan Chappell 0.318 0.101 0.014 0.002 0.000 Jack Consiglio 0.682 0.336 0.087 0.023 0.001 Elijah Griffin 0.657 0.151 0.078 0.022 0.001 Carter Nogle 0.343 0.046 0.017 0.003 0.000 Billy DeKraker 0.047 0.011 0.003 0.000 0.000 Sergio Vega 0.953 0.792 0.638 0.369 0.061 Mendez the clear favorite here. Hardy and Vega are the likely opponent.
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 149 Prelim Austin McBurney 0.536 Clayton Jones 0.464 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Shayne Van Ness 0.980 0.866 0.715 0.590 0.414 Austin McBurney 0.020 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 Lucas Kapusta 0.269 0.016 0.004 0.001 0.000 Jacob Frost 0.731 0.115 0.053 0.024 0.008 David Evans 0.775 0.363 0.075 0.036 0.012 Andrew Clark 0.225 0.048 0.003 0.001 0.000 Michael Gioffre 0.225 0.083 0.009 0.002 0.000 Casey Swiderski 0.775 0.506 0.140 0.080 0.034 Koy Buesgens 0.758 0.439 0.255 0.076 0.031 Kade Brown 0.242 0.077 0.024 0.003 0.001 Gabe Willochell 0.235 0.066 0.020 0.002 0.000 Carter Young 0.765 0.417 0.236 0.067 0.026 Joseph Zargo 0.525 0.213 0.084 0.016 0.004 Chance Lamer 0.475 0.182 0.068 0.012 0.003 Kaden Cassidy 0.081 0.012 0.001 0.000 0.000 Collin Gaj 0.919 0.593 0.312 0.089 0.035 Cross Wasilewski 0.699 0.499 0.295 0.104 0.033 Dylan Layton 0.301 0.156 0.062 0.012 0.002 Brock Herman 0.447 0.142 0.051 0.008 0.001 Caleb Rathjen 0.553 0.203 0.082 0.016 0.003 Lachlan McNeil 0.812 0.622 0.382 0.138 0.045 Eligh Rivera 0.188 0.084 0.024 0.003 0.000 Andre Gonzales 0.304 0.057 0.012 0.001 0.000 Caleb Tyus 0.696 0.238 0.093 0.017 0.003 Ethan Stiles 0.858 0.395 0.106 0.053 0.014 Anderson Heap 0.142 0.019 0.001 0.000 0.000 Max Petersen 0.249 0.099 0.016 0.006 0.001 Aden Valencia 0.751 0.487 0.172 0.104 0.037 Ryder Block 0.710 0.164 0.078 0.040 0.011 Eugene Harney 0.290 0.032 0.009 0.003 0.000 Ryan Michaels 0.076 0.027 0.007 0.002 0.000 Jaxon Joy 0.924 0.778 0.610 0.492 0.280 Van Ness and Joy clearly separated
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 157 Prelim Yannis Charles 0.482 Jeb Prechtel 0.518 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner PJ Duke 0.998 0.962 0.721 0.542 0.377 Jeb Prechtel 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Luke Mechler 0.459 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 Cael Swensen 0.541 0.023 0.003 0.001 0.000 Daniel Cardenas 0.952 0.577 0.173 0.093 0.044 Jaivon Jones 0.048 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 Mason Shrader 0.114 0.013 0.001 0.000 0.000 Brandon Cannon 0.886 0.405 0.100 0.048 0.020 Landon Robideau 0.903 0.640 0.388 0.141 0.069 Gavin Drexler 0.097 0.023 0.004 0.000 0.000 Charlie Millard 0.310 0.071 0.021 0.002 0.000 Vinny Zerban 0.690 0.266 0.122 0.028 0.009 Derek Raike 0.593 0.103 0.017 0.001 0.000 Jimmy Harrington 0.407 0.051 0.006 0.000 0.000 Bryce Lowery 0.082 0.035 0.004 0.000 0.000 Kaleb Larkin 0.918 0.811 0.437 0.144 0.065 Meyer Shapiro 0.935 0.834 0.596 0.324 0.147 Laird Root 0.065 0.026 0.005 0.000 0.000 Kai Owen 0.389 0.042 0.009 0.001 0.000 Ethen Miller 0.611 0.098 0.029 0.005 0.001 Ty Watters 0.891 0.570 0.234 0.089 0.027 Colton Washleski 0.109 0.022 0.002 0.000 0.000 Dylan Evans 0.303 0.086 0.017 0.003 0.000 Jude Swisher 0.697 0.323 0.109 0.033 0.008 Kannon Webster 0.955 0.849 0.541 0.325 0.152 Jonathan Ley 0.045 0.015 0.002 0.000 0.000 Kaleb Burgess 0.249 0.014 0.001 0.000 0.000 Logan Rozynski 0.751 0.121 0.030 0.007 0.001 Cameron Catrabone 0.645 0.141 0.030 0.007 0.001 DJ McGee 0.355 0.046 0.006 0.001 0.000 Garrett McChesney 0.019 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 Antrell Taylor 0.981 0.811 0.390 0.204 0.080 This is more competive. Pablo likes Duke, Shapiro and Webster. Webster here is a little surprise, but Pablo literally has him ranked 2nd, a tad ahead of Shapiro. Will be interesting.
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 165 Prelim Ryan Vigil 0.317 Cody Walsh 0.683 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Mitchell Mesenbrink 0.999 0.973 0.964 0.923 0.830 Cody Walsh 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Braeden Scoles 0.465 0.011 0.007 0.003 0.001 Paddy Gallagher 0.535 0.016 0.011 0.005 0.001 Bryce Hepner 0.532 0.236 0.003 0.001 0.000 Sean Seefeldt 0.468 0.193 0.002 0.001 0.000 Mac Church 0.298 0.127 0.001 0.000 0.000 Matty Bianchi 0.702 0.445 0.011 0.004 0.001 LaDarion Lockett 0.935 0.743 0.451 0.035 0.014 Cody Goebel 0.065 0.016 0.002 0.000 0.000 Brock Woodcock 0.634 0.174 0.059 0.002 0.000 Cesar Alvan 0.366 0.066 0.015 0.000 0.000 Andrew Sparks 0.656 0.291 0.128 0.006 0.002 Ty Whalen 0.344 0.103 0.031 0.001 0.000 Ryan Burgos 0.059 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 Nicco Ruiz 0.941 0.599 0.313 0.020 0.007 Mikey Caliendo 0.988 0.919 0.755 0.559 0.107 Thomas Snipes 0.012 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 Noah Mulvaney 0.399 0.023 0.006 0.001 0.000 Andrew Barbosa 0.601 0.055 0.018 0.005 0.000 Ryder Downey 0.624 0.296 0.061 0.023 0.001 Matthew Olguin 0.376 0.135 0.018 0.005 0.000 EJ Parco 0.148 0.035 0.002 0.000 0.000 LJ Araujo 0.852 0.533 0.139 0.064 0.004 Max Brignola 0.799 0.679 0.397 0.156 0.015 Tyler Lillard 0.201 0.117 0.032 0.005 0.000 Chris Earnest 0.422 0.073 0.013 0.001 0.000 Will Denny 0.578 0.130 0.031 0.004 0.000 Connor Euton 0.638 0.242 0.109 0.027 0.001 Gunner Filipowicz 0.362 0.095 0.031 0.005 0.000 Jared Keslar 0.056 0.008 0.001 0.000 0.000 Joey Blaze 0.944 0.656 0.386 0.145 0.013 Mesinbrink clearly on his own here. Maybe Calliendo, but that would be a big surprise.
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 174 Prelim Grant O`Dell 0.289 Luke Condon 0.711 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Levi Haines 0.995 0.951 0.837 0.669 0.573 Luke Condon 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 Jared Simma 0.355 0.010 0.002 0.000 0.000 Nick Fine 0.645 0.038 0.013 0.003 0.001 Beau Mantanona 0.853 0.460 0.069 0.027 0.013 Garrett Thompson 0.147 0.028 0.001 0.000 0.000 Sergio Desiante 0.179 0.045 0.002 0.000 0.000 Alex Facundo 0.821 0.468 0.075 0.031 0.015 Patrick Kennedy 0.894 0.710 0.342 0.083 0.047 Holden Garcia 0.106 0.036 0.005 0.000 0.000 Lenny Pinto 0.354 0.066 0.011 0.001 0.000 Carter Schubert 0.646 0.187 0.047 0.005 0.001 Carter Baer 0.416 0.057 0.013 0.001 0.000 Daschle Lamer 0.584 0.107 0.032 0.003 0.001 Avery Bassett 0.106 0.050 0.012 0.001 0.000 Carson Kharchla 0.894 0.786 0.537 0.176 0.116 Christopher Minto 0.960 0.853 0.673 0.422 0.122 Riley Davis 0.040 0.012 0.002 0.000 0.000 Logan Messer 0.396 0.042 0.012 0.002 0.000 Moses Espinoza-Owens 0.604 0.093 0.036 0.008 0.000 MJ Gaitan 0.751 0.458 0.146 0.054 0.007 Brody Baumann 0.249 0.089 0.013 0.002 0.000 Collin Carrigan 0.203 0.045 0.004 0.000 0.000 Matty Singleton 0.797 0.408 0.113 0.037 0.004 Cam Steed 0.746 0.526 0.281 0.144 0.032 Derek Gilcher 0.254 0.117 0.034 0.010 0.001 Luca Augustine 0.296 0.068 0.014 0.003 0.000 Myles Takats 0.704 0.289 0.111 0.041 0.005 Danny Wask 0.670 0.299 0.157 0.070 0.012 Colin Kelly 0.330 0.096 0.035 0.010 0.001 Cael Valencia 0.124 0.029 0.006 0.001 0.000 Simon Ruiz 0.876 0.576 0.362 0.197 0.048 Haines, Kharchla, Minto
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 184 Prelim Sam Goin 0.676 Caleb Uhlenhopp 0.324 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Rocco Welsh 0.932 0.793 0.617 0.456 0.210 Sam Goin 0.068 0.023 0.006 0.001 0.000 Ian Bush 0.575 0.117 0.051 0.020 0.003 Rylan Rogers 0.425 0.068 0.025 0.008 0.001 Chris Moore 0.603 0.227 0.051 0.018 0.002 Joe Curtis 0.397 0.115 0.019 0.005 0.000 Malachi DuVall 0.130 0.038 0.003 0.001 0.000 Silas Allred 0.870 0.621 0.228 0.121 0.031 Brock Mantanona 0.897 0.524 0.351 0.150 0.042 Abraham Wojcikiewicz 0.103 0.017 0.004 0.000 0.000 Tomas Brooker 0.178 0.036 0.011 0.002 0.000 Dylan Fishback 0.822 0.422 0.272 0.109 0.028 Isaac Dean 0.461 0.151 0.035 0.006 0.001 Brian Soldano 0.539 0.195 0.051 0.010 0.001 Nick Fox 0.177 0.064 0.010 0.001 0.000 James Conway 0.823 0.590 0.266 0.094 0.021 Max McEnelly 0.980 0.917 0.780 0.416 0.282 Tyler Bienus 0.020 0.006 0.001 0.000 0.000 Jared McGill 0.607 0.055 0.020 0.002 0.000 Jaden Bullock 0.393 0.022 0.006 0.000 0.000 Shane Cartagena-Walsh 0.477 0.198 0.029 0.004 0.001 Zack Ryder 0.523 0.227 0.036 0.005 0.001 Aidan Brenot 0.158 0.041 0.002 0.000 0.000 Eddie Neitenbach 0.842 0.535 0.126 0.029 0.010 Angelo Ferrari 0.885 0.711 0.201 0.074 0.034 Chase Kranitz 0.115 0.043 0.002 0.000 0.000 Ceasar Garza 0.383 0.075 0.005 0.001 0.000 Caleb Campos 0.617 0.171 0.018 0.003 0.001 Sal Perrine 0.497 0.030 0.008 0.001 0.000 Jake Dailey 0.503 0.031 0.009 0.001 0.000 Mahonri Rushton 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 Aeoden Sinclair 0.995 0.937 0.756 0.463 0.328 Pablo has this as really even. Welsh, McEnnelly, Sinclair (most likely to win) are really close.
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 197 Prelim Karson Tompkins 0.532 Blake Schaffer 0.468 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Josh Barr 0.999 0.991 0.973 0.941 0.894 Karson Tompkins 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Dillon Bechtold 0.382 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 Branson John 0.618 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.000 Angelo Posada 0.558 0.288 0.007 0.003 0.001 Brock Zurawski 0.442 0.203 0.004 0.001 0.000 Evan Bates 0.293 0.105 0.001 0.000 0.000 DJ Parker 0.707 0.404 0.012 0.006 0.002 Joey Novak 0.894 0.553 0.394 0.026 0.013 Kael Wisler 0.106 0.020 0.005 0.000 0.000 Rune Lawrence 0.235 0.056 0.021 0.000 0.000 Luke Geog 0.765 0.371 0.244 0.012 0.006 Bennett Berge 0.510 0.266 0.088 0.002 0.001 Wyatt Ingham 0.490 0.251 0.081 0.002 0.001 Colton Hawks 0.222 0.057 0.008 0.000 0.000 Sonny Sasso 0.778 0.426 0.158 0.005 0.002 Stephen Little 0.761 0.472 0.233 0.093 0.005 Kade Rule 0.239 0.082 0.020 0.004 0.000 Zayne Lehman 0.399 0.155 0.050 0.012 0.000 Gabe Sollars 0.601 0.291 0.121 0.039 0.002 Camden McDanel 0.741 0.466 0.302 0.142 0.010 Devin Wasley 0.259 0.100 0.040 0.010 0.000 Gabe Arnold 0.281 0.080 0.029 0.006 0.000 Justin Rademacher 0.719 0.354 0.205 0.083 0.005 Cody Merrill 0.811 0.615 0.290 0.173 0.013 Ben Vanadia 0.189 0.083 0.016 0.004 0.000 Mikey Squires 0.269 0.045 0.006 0.001 0.000 Mac Stout 0.731 0.256 0.072 0.027 0.001 Remy Cotton 0.462 0.078 0.023 0.007 0.000 Andrew Reall 0.538 0.103 0.034 0.011 0.000 Kael Bennie 0.077 0.028 0.006 0.001 0.000 Rocky Elam 0.923 0.792 0.553 0.387 0.044 Would be a huge upset if Barr doesn't win. Heck, this is on the level of Steveson last year.
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 285 Prelim Mason Rebuck 0.379 Emmanuel Ulrich 0.621 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Yonger Bastida 0.992 0.875 0.773 0.619 0.440 Emmanuel Ulrich 0.008 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 Vincent Mueller 0.262 0.013 0.004 0.001 0.000 Jimmy Mullen 0.738 0.110 0.062 0.026 0.008 Cole Mirasola 0.813 0.512 0.098 0.042 0.013 Connor Barket 0.187 0.057 0.003 0.000 0.000 Alex Semenenko 0.173 0.031 0.001 0.000 0.000 Ben Kueter 0.827 0.399 0.059 0.021 0.005 Nick Feldman 0.933 0.653 0.374 0.122 0.054 Jarrett Stoner 0.067 0.011 0.001 0.000 0.000 Juan Mora 0.337 0.082 0.023 0.003 0.000 Braxton Amos 0.663 0.253 0.107 0.023 0.007 Spencer Lanosga 0.376 0.095 0.027 0.004 0.001 Dayton Pitzer 0.624 0.222 0.088 0.017 0.005 Luke Rasmussen 0.050 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 AJ Ferrari 0.950 0.675 0.380 0.122 0.053 Taye Ghadiali 0.962 0.827 0.659 0.349 0.151 Jack Forbes 0.038 0.009 0.002 0.000 0.000 Nate Schon 0.425 0.059 0.022 0.003 0.000 Koy Hopke 0.575 0.105 0.046 0.009 0.001 Devon Dawson 0.288 0.082 0.011 0.001 0.000 Trevor Tinker 0.712 0.350 0.096 0.023 0.004 Hunter Catka 0.335 0.154 0.031 0.005 0.001 Nathan Taylor 0.665 0.414 0.134 0.039 0.009 Konner Doucet 0.839 0.617 0.250 0.127 0.043 Luke Luffman 0.161 0.061 0.008 0.001 0.000 Stephan Monchery 0.177 0.021 0.001 0.000 0.000 David Szuba 0.823 0.302 0.073 0.024 0.005 Brady Colbert 0.357 0.045 0.013 0.003 0.000 Christian Carroll 0.643 0.135 0.056 0.019 0.004 Brenan Morgan 0.036 0.008 0.001 0.000 0.000 Isaac Trumble 0.964 0.812 0.598 0.395 0.194 Again 3 in the mix. Pablo has liked Bastida all season, and has Ghadiali and Trumble with a chance.
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 Let's look more. Here are the wrestlers who have a 10% chance of making the final. Not winning, but making it to the final. I've broken them by bracket side. 125 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Luke Lilledahl 0.946 0.872 0.761 0.576 0.415 Troy Spratley 0.903 0.679 0.399 0.157 0.083 Sheldon Seymour 0.910 0.574 0.313 0.114 0.056 Nic Bouzakis 0.918 0.663 0.527 0.421 0.225 Eddie Ventresca 0.805 0.519 0.332 0.127 0.039 Jacob Moran 0.799 0.291 0.188 0.122 0.045 Jore Volk 0.860 0.548 0.174 0.099 0.029 133 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Jax Forrest 1.000 0.990 0.986 0.646 0.599 Aaron Seidel 0.994 0.975 0.939 0.352 0.305 Ben Davino 0.985 0.837 0.771 0.477 0.056 Marcus Blaze 0.967 0.890 0.633 0.343 0.033 Drake Ayala 0.942 0.787 0.315 0.127 0.006 141 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Jesse Mendez 0.999 0.983 0.952 0.865 0.783 Brock Hardy 0.965 0.829 0.650 0.406 0.072 Sergio Vega 0.953 0.792 0.638 0.369 0.061 149 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Shayne Van Ness 0.980 0.866 0.715 0.590 0.414 Jaxon Joy 0.924 0.778 0.610 0.492 0.280 Lachlan McNeil 0.812 0.622 0.382 0.138 0.045 Aden Valencia 0.751 0.487 0.172 0.104 0.037 Cross Wasilewski 0.699 0.499 0.295 0.104 0.033 157 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner PJ Duke 0.998 0.962 0.721 0.542 0.377 Kaleb Larkin 0.918 0.811 0.437 0.144 0.065 Landon Robideau 0.903 0.640 0.388 0.141 0.069 Kannon Webster 0.955 0.849 0.541 0.325 0.152 Meyer Shapiro 0.935 0.834 0.596 0.324 0.147 Antrell Taylor 0.981 0.811 0.390 0.204 0.080
Pablo Posted March 16 Author Posted March 16 165 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Mitchell Mesenbrink 0.999 0.973 0.964 0.923 0.830 Mikey Caliendo 0.988 0.919 0.755 0.559 0.107 Max Brignola 0.799 0.679 0.397 0.156 0.015 Joey Blaze 0.944 0.656 0.386 0.145 0.013 174 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Levi Haines 0.995 0.951 0.837 0.669 0.573 Carson Kharchla 0.894 0.786 0.537 0.176 0.116 Christopher Minto 0.960 0.853 0.673 0.422 0.122 Simon Ruiz 0.876 0.576 0.362 0.197 0.048 Cam Steed 0.746 0.526 0.281 0.144 0.032 184 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Rocco Welsh 0.932 0.793 0.617 0.456 0.210 Brock Mantanona 0.897 0.524 0.351 0.150 0.042 Silas Allred 0.870 0.621 0.228 0.121 0.031 Dylan Fishback 0.822 0.422 0.272 0.109 0.028 Aeoden Sinclair 0.995 0.937 0.756 0.463 0.328 Max McEnelly 0.980 0.917 0.780 0.416 0.282 197 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Josh Barr 0.999 0.991 0.973 0.941 0.894 Rocky Elam 0.923 0.792 0.553 0.387 0.044 Cody Merrill 0.811 0.615 0.290 0.173 0.013 Camden McDanel 0.741 0.466 0.302 0.142 0.010 285 Name Round of 16 Round of 8 SemiFinal Final Winner Yonger Bastida 0.992 0.875 0.773 0.619 0.440 AJ Ferrari 0.950 0.675 0.380 0.122 0.053 Nick Feldman 0.933 0.653 0.374 0.122 0.054 Isaac Trumble 0.964 0.812 0.598 0.395 0.194 Taye Ghadiali 0.962 0.827 0.659 0.349 0.151 Konner Doucet 0.839 0.617 0.250 0.127 0.043 1
Jackson Lininger Northern York, Pennsylvania Class of 2027 Committed to Slippery Rock Projected Weight: 149
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