Pablo Team Dual Rankings

[Pablo]

One of the things that I can do with Pablo rankings is to compare teams.  So what I have done now is to rank the teams, from a dual perspective.  A couple of things

1) The first step in the process is to identify a starting lineup for each team.  I'm not going to go through every team's lineup to see who the coaches are sending out, so I just pick them on my own.  I have a few guidelines I use

a) The starting point is the wrester at each weight who had the most matches.  In most cases, that's all you need to look at

b) Sometimes, when there are multiple wrestlers with lots of matches, it can be more subtle.  In that case, what I generally do is to choose the better wrestler (by Pablo rating).  This means that if there is a redshirt who has lots of matches who is rated higher than a starter, I'm going with the redshirt.  Close enough.  And how many matches does a wrestler need?  My general guideline was maybe to be within 5 matches of the guy with the most.  In the end, I am trying to put the best team on the mat.

2) OK, with the team, the way I evaluate them is to do a round-robin comparison of every team vs every other team.  There are 79 DI wrestling teams, so each has 78 matches.  The rankings just show who has the most wins over those 78 matches.

3) Scoring:  by using the rankings before the NCAA tournament and the outcomes at the tournament, I have been able to create a model to predict the outcomes of a match given a Pablo rating difference.  Therefore, there is a prediction of how likely each wrestler is to win, and how likely are the different outcome (dec, MD, TF, fall) in each situation.  Thus, I can determine the expected number of dual points given the rating difference.  Note that this takes into account the probability of either wrestler winning (the basis of Pablo rankings) and the value of that win.  In each dual, I compare each weight and figure out the expected outcomes for the two teams at that weight (note that "expected outcome" refers to the average over a large number of trials).  The team that scores more wins the dual.

4) Tie-breakers: In those cases where teams have the same number of wins over the round-robin, the higher ranked team is the one that won the head-to-head.  In case of a 3-way tie not decided by head-to-head (all three are 1-1), I used the biggest total point differential among those three teams.

That being said, here are the team rankings. I've included the average match score difference just for reference (it isn't used for ranking),  remember, there are 78 dual matches.  This is based on final (post NCAAs) Pablo ratings.

Rank	Team	Wins	Avg Score Diff
1.	Penn St	78	43.0
2.	Nebraska	77	31.3
3.	Iowa	76	29.8
4.	Oklahoma St	75	28.0
5.	Ohio St	74	28.0
6.	Minnesota	73	25.4
7.	Northern Iowa	72	24.6
8.	Illinois	71	20.9
9.	Cornell	70	19.3
10.	NC St	69	18.4
11.	Virginia Tech	68	17.8
12.	Lehigh	67	17.6
13.	Iowa St	66	17.1
14.	South Dakota St	65	16.8
15.	Michigan	64	14.3
16.	Rutgers	63	14.3
17.	North Carolina	62	12.6
18.	Missouri	61	10.5
19.	Oklahoma	60	10.8
20.	Pennsylvania	58	9.9
21.	Pittsburgh	58	9.8
22.	Little Rock	57	9.8
23.	Stanford	56	7.4
24.	Purdue	56	9.7
25.	Indiana	54	9.3
26.	Oregon St	53	8.8
27.	Arizona St	51	6.5
27.	Army	51	7.1
29.	Lock Haven	50	6.4
30.	Princeton	49	5.9
31.	Maryland	48	5.4
32.	Virginia	47	5.3
33.	Wyoming	46	4.5
34.	West Virginia	46	4.2
35.	Northern Colorado	44	3.9
36.	Navy	43	3.5
37.	North Dakota St	42	1.6
38.	Northwestern	41	1.7
39.	Utah Valley	40	1.0
40.	Cal Poly	39	0.8
41.	Bucknell	38	0.0
42.	Columbia	37	-1.0
43.	Central Michigan	36	-1.2
44.	Binghamton	35	-1.5
45.	Drexel	34	-2.0
46.	Rider	33	-3.2
47.	Appalachian St	32	-4.1
48.	Cal Baptist	31	-4.3
49.	George Mason	30	-4.9
50.	Campbell	28	-5.6
51.	Wisconsin	28	-5.7
52.	Ohio University	28	-7.5
53.	Chattanooga	26	-7.7
54.	The Citadel	25	-8.4
55.	Michigan St	24	-9.2
56.	Bellarmine	23	-9.6
57.	American	22	-10.9
58.	Edinboro	20	-11.0
59.	SIU Edwardsville	20	-11.4
60.	CSU Bakersfield	19	-10.4
61.	Northern Illinois	19	-11.6
62.	Hofstra	17	-11.8
63.	Air Force	16	-12.6
64.	Clarion	15	-12.8
65.	Harvard	14	-13.8
66.	Brown	13	-14.3
67.	Cleveland St	12	-15.8
68.	LIU	11	-16.5
69.	Kent St	10	-18.5
70.	Buffalo	9	-20.1
71.	VMI	8	-22.0
72.	Gardner-Webb	7	-22.9
73.	Duke	6	-22.7
74.	Franklin & Marshall	5	-24.1
75.	Davidson	4	-26.2
76.	Morgan St	3	-27.0
77.	Sacred Heart	2	-29.3
78.	Bloomsburg	1	-37.9
79.	Presbyterian	0	-38.9

[bnwtwg]

I see you.

 

Edited April 7 by bnwtwg