A new twist on All-American calcs

[Wrestleknownothing]

OK, this was a huge pain in the ass, so I am not sure if I will do it again before the final tournament seeds come out. Especially if no one cares.

But, I used an online expansion calculator to turn my probability of AAing by seed into the probability of each discrete number of AAs per team. I only did this for the 18 teams that have at least two expected AA's.

Now, in addition to seeing the expected AA's, you can see how the distribution shakes out for each number of AA's from 0 to 10, along with the most probable result.

All of this was done with the final pre-season Wrestlestat rankings (again assuming rank = seed).

The one big caveat is that true freshmen who have not wrestled in a college open are not included in the rankings yet, as near as I can tell.

Looks like Minnesota is safe for another year.

[PortaJohn]

Nice work again.  Wish we had a remind me later option so we can pull this back up the week before NCAA's

[Wrestleknownothing]

1 hour ago, PortaJohn said:

Nice work again.  Wish we had a remind me later option so we can pull this back up the week before NCAA's

Once the seeds come out I will re-calc, but probably not before then.

[PortaJohn]

1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Once the seeds come out I will re-calc, but probably not before then.

That would be great.  Looking forward to revisiting this 

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

I've done this before and was so unsure of my calculations that I almost didn't post it. I'm sure that your big brain did it right. Thanks! 

[Wrestleknownothing]

22 minutes ago, ILLINIWrestlingBlog said:

I've done this before and was so unsure of my calculations that I almost didn't post it. I'm sure that your big brain did it right. Thanks! 

For future reference, if you have the probabilities of 10 independent events (like AAing at any of 10 weights) you can get the probability of each 11 outcomes (0 to 10) by doing the algebraic expansion of:

• (P1+(1-P1)X)(P2+(1-P2X)....(P10+(1-P10)x)

where P1 through P10 are the individual probabilities.

The expansion will take the form of:

• aX^10+bx^9+.....+jx+k

The factors a through k are your probabilities of 0 through 10 events.

For an expansion this big you will want to use an online calculator (or a stat programming language like R).

I used https://www.symbolab.com/solver/expand-calculator