Interesting stats on TD scoring change from 2 to 3

[fishbane]

16 minutes ago, MNRodent said:

True, but as the risk/reward of either getting a takedown on your shot or getting countered approaches 50/50 both wrestlers will naturally become more conservative in their shot taking no matter how many points a takedown is worth.

I think the key is to somehow reward the wrestler that initiates action.

Another approach is to introduce something to perturb the equilibrium.  Assume a match starts tied and a TD attempt resulting in an equal chance of either you or your opponent scoring.  This might result in wrestlers that do not want to initiate TD attempts.   One way to change things is to put one wrestler behind on the scoreboard.  Now the wrestler in the lead will have less incentive to initiate a TD attempt as there is a 50% chance he will be losing, but on the other hand the losing wrestler will have a 50% chance of reversing his fortunes with a TD attempt. This is essentially what is done in international freestyle.  If no one scores, then by rule one point is given to a wrestler.

[MNRodent]

3 hours ago, fishbane said:

Another approach is to introduce something to perturb the equilibrium.  Assume a match starts tied and a TD attempt resulting in an equal chance of either you or your opponent scoring.  This might result in wrestlers that do not want to initiate TD attempts.   One way to change things is to put one wrestler behind on the scoreboard.  Now the wrestler in the lead will have less incentive to initiate a TD attempt as there is a 50% chance he will be losing, but on the other hand the losing wrestler will have a 50% chance of reversing his fortunes with a TD attempt. This is essentially what is done in international freestyle.  If no one scores, then by rule one point is given to a wrestler.

I like it.  I think just having a criteria that is visible on the scoreboard (ex: 2-2) like they do in international styles would also increase action.  I wonder which would be the best criteria in folkstyle, the first takedown or last score?

 

[Eagle26]

As others have mentioned the change in takedowns needed for a tech likely make this equivalent to no change at all. I’m not sure why anyone would think there would be a major change in the number of takedowns though? I was a fan of the rule change because I think it is a better reflection of who is the better wrestler. Takedowns are tough to get and should be worth more than 2 escapes IMO. I’ve always assumed though, that if a wrestler can take down their opponent, they would do it whether it’s worth two or three points. 

[pmilk]

Obviously, TF's and MD's were not a part of rules set prior to '85. Where it took 3 TD's to = 6pts, it now only takes 2 TD's...

1. There are negative trends in Falls, Major Decisions, and Tech Falls (Figure 1)
2. Falls have the largest decrease followed by Major decisions and Tech Falls (Figures 2 and 3)
3. Overtime matches show a steady upward trend (Figures 1 and 3)
4. In terms of number of matches, on the average Major Decisions are the highest followed by Falls and Tech Falls (Figures 4 and 5).
5. In the last few years there has been an approximately equal number of Falls and Overtime matches (Figures 2 and 3)

NCAA D1 Champinship Statistics Trends 2024.docx

Edited June 12 by pmilk