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Posted

I took some time (too much time) to compile the 1997 Iowa team score from the brackets on wrestlingstats.com so that I could also re-score them using the current scoring rules. I ran into a problem. When I compile the team score I get 171 rather than the 170 that is reported everywhere. 

1997 scored with 1997 rules:

image.png.fda98738e645d7057437c4ae576f1905.png

I am wondering if they had a team point deducted somewhere along the way. If anyone knows the answer, please let me know. I have consulted with two of our resident historians and we were not certain.

1997 scored with 2024 rules:

image.png.ad2d51be72ee8b73fed43256392f1d04.png

The deltas come from two sources. Fifth and sixth place are worth 2 and 3 more points today than in 1997, respectively. But in 1997 the tournament was scored as a 64 team bracket whereas it is now scored as a 32 team bracket with pigtails. The impact of scoring it as a 64 team bracket is that any time there are more than 32 wrestlers in a bracket there will be a lot more advancement points available to the field (16 more on the champ side and 8 more on the conso side). 

  • If it turns out there was a one point deduction, then the new 1997 Iowa total using 2024 scoring rules would be 170.5.

PSU Returning Points

So where does PSU stand heading into 2024? With Roman Bravo-Young and Max Dean being replaced by Aaron Nagao and Bernie Truax their returning points are 141.5 (I saw 143 reported elsewhere, but I think that is wrong).

image.png.3cf92afe07ba5e33b4c2d30edba9be1e.png

So PSU has either a 30 point gap or a 29 point gap to make up. Seems like a tall order,. But, not so much from a placement perspective. Does anyone really doubt PSU's ability to have 5 champs, 1 runner-up, and 2 other AA's? 

No the issue for PSU will be, and has been for several years, bonus points. Iowa ripped off 33 of them. The currently constituted PSU line-up had 20. And the prior two tournaments they were under 20 points each.

Stranger things have happened, though. As a matter of fact the 1997 Iowa team apparently was not even the favorite to win the tournament. That was Oklahoma State.

Conclusion

It rarely (never?) pays to bet against Cael Sanderson, but I have to take the under on PSU getting to 171.5.

Or 170.5, whichever.

  • Fire 4

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

Posted

What happens when you adjust the placement points with the placewinners who graduated removed? (I.e. Kerkvliet goes from 2nd to 1st bc Parris graduated)

Posted
13 minutes ago, DJT said:

What happens when you adjust the placement points with the placewinners who graduated removed? (I.e. Kerkvliet goes from 2nd to 1st bc Parris graduated)

Good question. Stay tuned.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

Posted
1 hour ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

(I saw 143 reported elsewhere, but I think that is wrong).

143 is from a people including Robbie Howard from a few years ago.

I Don't Agree With What I Posted

Posted
6 minutes ago, PortaJohn said:

143 is from a people including Robbie Howard from a few years ago.

Got it. Bit of a stretch on the definition of returning, but then this whole exercise is a stretch.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

Posted

The Free Points for Everyone Version:

image.png.583cd58687e1c5893a9ee627bd5960f1.png

If we assume everyone moves up by the number of wrestlers who finished above them that are not returning, 2024 PSU are on par with 1997 Iowa's placement points (actually +1) and advancement points (-3).

But 2024 PSU still has the original bonus point problem.

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

The Free Points for Everyone Version:

image.png.583cd58687e1c5893a9ee627bd5960f1.png

If we assume everyone moves up by the number of wrestlers who finished above them that are not returning, 2024 PSU are on par with 1997 Iowa's placement points (actually +1) and advancement points (-3).

But 2024 PSU still has the original bonus point problem.

Don't forget Alirez is taking an Oly Shirt next year.  Need to factor in for Bartlett

Edited by PortaJohn

I Don't Agree With What I Posted

Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

It rarely (never?) pays to bet against Cael Sanderson, but I have to take the under on PSU getting to 171.5.

Or 170.5, whichever.

When will you revisit to rescore individual matches with new 2024 rules (3pt takedown, no riding time point without a turn) to change bonus points accordingly (e.g., some DEC -> MDs, some MDs -> TFs)? 😉 

Like all other what ifs, it costs me nothing to challenge WkN.

I wonder whether the gap will shrink.

Edited by 98lberEating2Lunches
Posted
20 minutes ago, 98lberEating2Lunches said:

When will you revisit to rescore individual matches with new 2024 rules (3pt takedown, no riding time point without a turn) to change bonus points accordingly (e.g., some DEC -> MDs, some MDs -> TFs)? 😉 

Like all other what ifs, it costs me nothing to challenge WkN.

I wonder whether the gap will shrink.

Challenge accepted. Iowa had a lot of near majors and near TFs in 1997 to go along with their full majors and full TFs, so I think the gap grows.

  • Fire 1

Drowning in data, but thirsting for knowledge

Posted
5 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Challenge accepted. Iowa had a lot of near majors and near TFs in 1997 to go along with their full majors and full TFs, so I think the gap grows.

Need the most sound technical base possible to apply an asterisk should the scoring record be broken.

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