AQ projections?

[killdozer]

Actually I discovered a missed one at 174 so Brodersen was dropped and Miller of Appalachian State was added. Here are the new conference numbers

[ugarles]

17 hours ago, ugarles said:

Well, I couldn't help myself. Using Wrestlestat's RPI estimates, this spreadsheet has tabs for all of the weights and all of the people that could potentially earn a pre-allocation. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1g7fJRHTrJOg6q9Vx2ftxVYDFiJBEB3HMyic4IoGCLc0/edit?usp=sharing

Explanation of format: The first two columns - name and conference are self-explanatory. The third column lists the wrestlers winning percentage* and the fourth notes any wrestler who has a top 30 RPI or a winning percentage of .700 or better but was not in the top 30 of the last CR.

A caveat that there is a max of 29 pre-allocated spots and one has to go to EWL/MAC/Pac12/SoCon even if they don't have someone who meets the criteria, so there are more wrestlers who have 2 of 3 criteria than there are pre-allocated spots and this is before the last CR anyway, so the guys at the back of the top 30 who had a rough week or two may find themselves replaced. I also included some guys from weaker conferences who have a .700 winning percentage that technically need CR but don't have nearly a good enough RPI for the coaches to add them to the top 30 now, if they hadn't done it already, so no need to tell me that Palumbo or Stoltzfus are longshots.

That said, Here are the splits by weight, pending the new CR:

125: ACC 3, B10 9, B12 6, EIWA 4, MAC 3, Pac12 3, SoCon 2

133: ACC 3, B10 9, B12 6, EIWA 7, MAC 1, Pac12 3, SoCon 2

141: ACC 4, B10 10, B12 7, EIWA 5, MAC 3, Pac12 1, SoCon 1

149: ACC 5, B10 9, B12 7, EIWA 3, MAC 4, Pac12 2, SoCon 1

157: ACC 3, B10 11, B12 8, EIWA 3, MAC 4, Pac12 1, SoCon 1

165: ACC 5, B10 10, B12 7, EIWA 4, MAC 2, Pac12 2, SoCon 2

174: ACC 3, B10 7, B12 7, EIWA 5, MAC 5, Pac12 2, SoCon 2

184: ACC 6, B10 9, B12 6, EIWA 5, MAC 1, Pac12 1, SoCon 1

197: ACC 5, B10 9, B12 7, EIWA 6, MAC 1, Pac12 3, SoCon 1

285: ACC 4, B10 9, B12 8, EIWA 5, MAC 2, Pac12 1, SoCon 1

Feel free to comment here or on the spreadsheet if you think I made any mistakes (and I probably did).

* Also using Wrestlestat's calculations for win%, which can be off for these purposes if a wrestler moved up or down in weight. Looking at Patrick Glory's profile, they give the all-D1 winning % even though a handful of matches were at 133, so, grain of salt - especially for the guys right around .700.

laughing because it hit me as i was reading other people's posts that the EWL doesn't exist anymore and those teams are folded into the MAC. I've edited my rough projections in the quote to account for the change. I think it overstates the MAC in one way, because a lot of the guys are barely meeting criteria and also understates it because I didn't see Buffalo on what I guess is an old EWL list so I thought my memory was failing in a different way and assigned their guys to the EIWA but don't want to unwind it. 

Can't wait for the NCAA to release the list and free me from this mental prison.

[Idaho]

1 hour ago, killdozer said:

Actually I discovered a missed one at 174 so Brodersen was dropped and Miller of Appalachian State was added. Here are the new conference numbers

Pretty sure that according to wrestlestat, coaches ranking and the real RPI that Shane Griffith and Matthew Olguin both earned allocations at 165 in the Pac 12. 

[killdozer]

4 hours ago, Idaho said:

Pretty sure that according to wrestlestat, coaches ranking and the real RPI that Shane Griffith and Matthew Olguin both earned allocations at 165 in the Pac 12. 

You are correct Sorry I missed Griifth (Don't know why)

Revised