ILLINIWrestlingBlog

This weight is by far the toughest in the world. And I was trying to figure out how the Olympics could be a little bit better short of removing the two Continental Qualifiers from Africa and Oceania, and the only thing that I came up with was having Thomas Gilman and Zane Richards gain dual citizenship with Australia and the Solomon Islands. 

There are 10 wrestlers who wouldn't shock me if they won. My favorite is Spencer, but the winner is going to have to go through an absolutely amazing gauntlet.

One consideration that I think will play a huge part is this: There are only 16 wrestlers in the bracket, which means straight off, you are almost assured of getting a tough out in the first round, and there will be no byes (right?), which additionally means that the wrestlers have to make the cut, wrestle right off the bat, get little time to recover, and then wrestle again. 

This will be tough for the really big guys, the ones who'd benefit from a 61 kg weight.  

1 hour ago, oldschool said:

Will Micic be as much of a factor in a non-serbia-controlled weigh-in? 

Did you just call Shenanigans? I think I heard somebody call Shenanigans.

What I wrote on the IWB&F&B+ about the two ILLINI entries at U20:

70 kg KANNON WEBSTER

Challenges will come from wrestlers like Brock Mantanona, Antrell Taylor (if he can make weight at 154 pounds and some change), Dylan Gilcher, Tyler Kasak and Ethan Stiles. With his showing at the 2024 US Open, expect KANNON to receive a very high seed in this tournament. This might be a good time to mention that there are other ILLINOIS athletes from NIU, SIUE and other schools who will be wrestling. There are 15 wrestlers registered at this weight so far.


79 kg CHRIS MOORE

Challenges will come from Gabe Arnold, M.J. Gaitan (Edmond Ruth beat him in the blood round) and William Henckel among others. Of note, Bradley Gillum will be repping ILLINOIS and SIUE at this weight. At this time, there are 13 wrestlers registered at 79 kg.

Win the tournament and what you earn is a best-of-three trials finals against PJ Duke at 70 kg and Zack Ryder at 79 kg. We're sure the young ILLINI are itching for that, especially a rematch between WEBSTER and Duke. The 2024 U20 World Championships are slated for September 2-8 at the Pontevedra Municipal Sports Hall in Pontevedra, Spain.

A few additional thoughts: Kannon lost two crucial (and high-scoring) 50/50 positions with PJ Duke at the US Open. Had that match gone much further, I'm thinking Duke woulda gassed. Antrell Taylor looked small at 165, but not that small. How does he like cutting weight? Webster is a real title threat here. 

Chris Moore just keeps getting better. As a true Freshman last year, Moore lost to #11 Caleb Fish, #12 Maxx Mayfield and #22 Stoney Buell early in the season. He beat all three later in the season. I think he's giving up weight at 79 kg, but the kid keeps improving. 

Can we sue them for putting a thick layer of animal fat on all of their camera lenses? 

What about for having Lucas Byrd at #8 and Kannon Webster at #11 in their preseason rankings?

On behalf of the Board of Directors of the ILLINI Wrestling Blog & Forum & Beyond Plus, we would like to renew our pledge and commitment to very silly ideas and outrageous takes.  Our dedication to clickbait will be unmatched, and our devotion to homerism and crass sales puffery will remain unrivaled.  

We want you, the reader, to know that there will always be a place on this dusty planet of ours for ILLINI homerism and hyperbole. Likewise, there will always be a place where you are welcome to hate Iowa and Penn State and Okie Lite and an Ohio State University and stupid Minnesota and whatever it is that Nebraska is. 

And Rutgers. Haha! I almost forgot about Rutgers. Geez. 

Wait. You were talking about @nhs67.

Never mind. 

12 hours ago, Pipewrench said:

 

Illini, do you ever watch Futagoyama beya YT channel?  Good stuff.

 

Hakkeyoi!

About 99% of the time, I watch only the upper division. I had to search out that channel. It looks fun. Although this might not be the one you are talking about. Anyway, the :44 video below was hilarious. Cheers!

This is a classic JOMBO™  that I'm pretty sure hasn't been posted on this board yet. I'll try to include a classic every Sunday morning (whether you like it or not). 

By saying "I was there for the last year of Hakuho's reign," I mean that I watched all of the tournaments that year on Youtube. I wasn't actually in Japan. Of course, then I wanted to see all of his matches. 

Great story, @Threadkilla! I was there for the last year of Hakuho's reign. He was amazing. By far the GOAT among legends. 

The May basho is over, and we have a new winner! Onosato is the champion in only his third tournament. He finished at 12-3. The runner-up was the fellow I also thought had a chance to win, Daieisho, who finished at 11-4. 

Ura fell apart as expected, but it was so bad that he failed to reach .500 with a 7-8 record. That was unexpected. I was happy to see Takarafuji finish 9-6, which is a nice record for him at his age. 

Onosato has now finished 11-4, 11-4 and 12-3 in his three bashos. One runner-up finish and a championship. He is a new and emerging super talent. Hakkeyoi! 

UPDATE. VERSION 2.0. 

3 minutes ago, ionel said:

Is this tournament similar to when @Wrestleknownothing while wearing speedo accidently bumps into someone on the beach?  

Sumo is not nearly as dangerous.

Seriously, these guys don't wear helmets, frequently fall from a platform 24 inches above the ground with another fatty landing on top of them, can slap faces hard, and I've never seen anybody wearing a mouth guard. 

It's nuts.

The May basho (tournament) is now 7 matches old. The winner will be the wrestler with the best record after 15 matches in 15 days. This particular tournament is plagued with injuries and no shows. The top-ranked wrestler, the Yokozuna, pulled out, and also among the second-highest ranked wrestlers, two of these Ozekis have pulled out. Additionally, one of the wonder teens from the last tournament, Takerufuji, is not wrestling. 

That makes for a blah basho for me. 

There are no undefeated rikishi (wrestlers) left. Moreover, a couple of the guys at 6-1, I think, have little chance to win. That includes Ura, who is more of a showman than a legitimate challenger. He likes to fly around and attempt difficult winning holds. He usually loses to who he is supposed to lose to and wins only against who he is supposed to win against.

Another, Takarafuji, is pretty old and has been feasting on lower-ranked wrestlers to get to his 6-1 mark. I like him a lot, but he looks like my personal accountant (or Conan the Librarian--see below). 

It is only match 8 tomorrow, but I think the championship is already on the line as veteran Daieisho (6-1) takes on wunderkind Onosato (6-1). These two have both been in form, and look to have real possibilities to win. Daieisho is perhaps the toughest wrestler in the whole banzuke (roster). He leads with his head and is always ready to fight hard. He would be a worthy champion, as he's already won one. 

This is only Onosato's third tournament in the upper division, but he has finished 11-4 in his first two. He is a real, emerging talent. The showdown between him and Daieisho will be the highlight tomorrow. I think the winner has the inside track to become champion. 

11 hours ago, mspart said:

Well, when you are the bad draw, that should be a medal.   I count that as 57 and 74.  97 maybe.   Snyder will be a bad draw up until the semis I think.   But he has always medalled so he should figure out a way this time as well.   I don't know about Brooks.   Conceivably he is the bad draw.   65 is a disaster of a weight that anything can and usually does happen.   Zain is a bad draw, but there are some hammers in there.   125 Mason is a bad draw until the semis I think.   He medalled last year and should do so again.   I can see 6 medals, but 4 is probably more realistic.   But I have high hopes for this team.   Team USA is the hammer this year.  

mspart

I agree with all of this. Just wanted to add some stuff. 

The worst case scenario for Zain is the "Metcalf Effect." He has a super-tough opponent in round one or round two, loses a really close match but tires out his opponent so that he has no gas tank or is injured in his next match. I also think he is a bad draw, but in the case of Brent Metcalf, that was detrimental sometimes to Brent Metcalf. I wish there was 70 kg at the Olympics, but since there's not one, I'll take a 70 kg fellow at 65 kg if he has shown that he can manage the cut. The comparison would be to Micic, who looked like a 65 kg wrestler versus his 57 kg opponents at last year's World Championships. Get past those first couple of rounds ... eat ... rehydrate ... rest ... dominate!

As for Brooks, I like your word "conceivably." We just don't know yet. 

The ranking points have Mason in a third-seed position at heavyweight. The three guys that could pose major problems are ranked first, second and fourth. The fact that the top four main threats (which includes Mason) should be evenly divided in the bracket means, to me at least, Parris is a very, very (I'm weighing in my mind another "very" here) likely medalist. He can lose to other heavyweights, but he has to be a massive favorite against them. 

I wrote earlier that Mason had an 85% chance to medal. I might have to bump that up a couple of percentage points. I think I've talked myself into that! 

And yes, "Team USA is the hammer this year." Cheers!

2 hours ago, maligned said:

I'd take about 5-10 percentage points off of 57 (because of inexperience and struggles on defense against the ultra-fast guys), about 25 off of 65 (because of a loaded, loaded field with athletic types like Ochir that are Zain's kryptonite), and 10 off of 97 (because of bracketing). That would leave us at about 4.55 or 4.6. And I've said I think 4.5 would probably be a Vegas over/under for our medals. 

Snyder's bracketing situation is a little concerning. He and Tazhudinov will be separated, but the savvy Zhabrailov and Azarpira (who is young and rising and just beat Snyder recently) will be randomly drawn in because of lack of ranking points. That means there's a 23% chance he'll have both of those guys plus Magomedov on his side and a 77% chance he'll have at least one of them plus Magomedov. Because of that, the landmines are enough that I'd put his medal chances overall at 90% instead of 99%. 

I wouldn't take any percentage points off of 57 for inexperience. Perhaps gas tank, but certainly not inexperience. Age group wins, plus mentoring, plus USA training camp, plus they'll be flying in partners. He's been back at it for a year now. 

Zain showed me a lot at Last Chance. Of course he had a rough go to start the tournament as a 70 kg guy dropping down 11+ pounds. His first- and second-round matches will be key. It is such a tough weight, though, it's hard to say. But I'll be a homer for Zain and say he has a 65% chance to medal. I know the history at this weight, but Retherford is better and tougher than who we've sent in the recent past. 

Snyderman? He has medaled in 20 straight tournaments. He didn't medal at one Yaraguin, then medaled in 7 straight tournaments before that. Until he fails to medal, as young as he is, he's earned that 99%. Cheers! 

It would be nice to see brackets, or at least seeds. Two hammers on the USA side of the bracket could be bad news. That is possible at 57, 65, 74 and 130. A lot of wrestlers build up points with the ranking series events that some don't attend, especially the Russians and Americans. 

For example, given the current UWW points at 57, you will likely have Micic and Abakarov on one side of the bracket--two past World Champs, while on the other side you've got Higuchi and Uguev--two more World Champs. Either way is going to be a hard path. 

According to the ranking points at 65, Ochir is at #24, and there would be a quarterfinal bout between #4 Muszukajev and #5 Nick Lee. Except, of course, it won't be Nick Lee but Zain Retherford at the weight with his dearth of ranking points at 65 kilos. Gulp. His first and second round matches--and his cut--will be key. 

At 74, you have Sidakov getting a break from the Russian army (and UWW) to wrestle at the Olympics. Dake at least will be on the other side of the bracket from him, but 74 is swarming with young athletes. The Greek stepped up in the last World Championships. At 22, he's likely only gotten better. There will be others. 

Based on a cursory look, here are my percentages to medal for the United States of America, the greatest nation in the history of Earth:

57 --  75%

65 --  65%

74 --  90%

86 --  85%

97 --  99%

130 -- 85% 

Total that up and you get 499, then divide by six and you have 4.99. I think the US is a lock for 4 medals, and is looking good for 5. My favorite wrestler in the lot is Snyder, but a close second is Zain. He can do it, but he can also get paired in an early round with a one or two seed, and that might not be so good. 

All in all, I think this team is extremely good. With Gable in the equation, it would be 5 medals, with the possibility for 6. I'd have him a 95-99% chance to medal. Thanks, steroid freak league WWE! 

I just wish Ellis Coleman and Kamal Bey were there, but I'll root for Joe Rau real hard on the Greco side. The Women are also nasty. I think they crush while the legend of Elor grows. 

14 minutes ago, ionel said:

Sometimes we just have to give IWB a pass cause that Florida sun can be hot enough to fry the brain.   

 

*but I do still look forward to the Sunday comics. 

 

It's South Carolina, my friend, and it's not the heat, it's the humidity. For example we are now a week past donut season. You buy a donut now, and it will be a glazy puddle in 15 minutes. We are almost out of Milk Duds season. Buy a box next week, and it will be a brick in 30 minutes. In two weeks, you can take a shower, dry off with a towel, hang up the towel, and the next day, it is wetter. 

But the JOMBOVERSE grows!

There's a new addition to the JOMBO™ Comic Universe. A surprising addition. It should be interesting to see how the wrestling world reacts to the new hires. I decided to give Davebert the "Disney Look." I think he'll be a fan favorite. Cheers!

5 minutes ago, maligned said:

Bey came to play today. 

He'll have the Georgian at 4:45pm local time (9:45 ET) for the traditional bronze. Then if he wins, he'll have a True 3rd place match after the women's evening semi-finals at maybe 8pm local time (1pm ET).

He got the crowd excited in his matches. In his last match, he was down by criteria with :38 to go and gained a body lock that he quickly slipped up the body until it was almost a headlock throw for 4 points. Big match coming up. 

The four seed is very tough, but I've seen Kamal beat him. 

I had heard that this was a possibility. Looks like a grad student or Senior, one-year deal to fill 157 for the former Cyclone. Danny Nini can be built up in the meantime. Starter for Campbell (20-10) and then for Iowa State (22-15) with a Round of 16. I expect that this will be the middle and upper-weights for the ILLINI:

149 Kannon Webster

157 Jason Kraisser

165 Braeden Scoles

174 Danny Brawlnagel

184 Edmond Ruth

197 Zac Brawlnagel

HWT Luuuke Luffman

3 hours ago, maligned said:

You seem to deal with disappointment in the same way as my daughter: with weird, distracting comments and pretend joy

I appreciate your information and D3's irreverence.

GO KAMAL BEY!

15 hours ago, Wrestleknownothing said:

Bat signal for @ILLINIWrestlingBlog

As an impartial and respected wrestling journalist, I have to say that ILLINOIS is the team to beat next year. Due to a disquieting number of injuries (Lucas Byrd, Luke Luffman, Joe Roberts, Isiah Pettigrew, etc.), Olympic redshirts (both Brawlnagels) and Freshman redshirts (Kannon Webster, Braeden Scoles), the school had a poor dual year. 

Even so, some on this board would probably say, unfairly, that I was obnoxious about their potential. 

Well, just you wait. Get those folks back, except Joe Roberts, who unfortunately has medically retired due to concussions, and fill that spot with Webster or Scoles, and SHAM-WOW! Still need to shore up 125, but the rest of the lineup will be angry dog tough. 

As for the original post, I see the Big Ten as tougher, top to bottom, than at any time I can remember in the last 30 years. The B1G has 13 quality teams, and I expect evil Northwestern will be back in the mix eventually. Michigan State is teetering on the edge because of the transfer portal. I think the Spartans might end up with a crap dual record, but that's just because the conference is so tough. So, I'm going to say 13, worst case 12, very quality teams. 

Can't ever remember that being the case. 

Spencer Lee won't have to wrestle Aman of India, which would've been the toughest hurdle. He also doesn't have to face two of the bigger, stronger former medalists in Zanzabar Zandanbud of Mongolia or Horst Lehr of Germany. 

The questions to be answered for Lee: 

1. He'll need a good cut, as he has a first-round match, while China's Wanghao Zou gets a bye and will be waiting for him. 

2. Egorov in the next round is a former Russian and has medaled at the Euro Championships.

3. Sarlak of Iran or Dingashavili of Georgia in the semis to win the spot. 

5 hours ago, FanOfPurdueWrestling said:

Joey Gunther also trains at Lakeside BJJ as well as a former Purdue wrestler  

I'm going to add Joey Gunther's name to the post right now. Thanks for the information!