#2 Iowa at #1 Penn State Preview and Predictions
Tomorrow night is one of the most anticipated duals of the year with second-ranked Iowa traveling to State College, Pennsylvania to take on top-ranked Penn State. The dual is loaded with great matchups - seven of the ten feature both probable starters ranked in the top ten. Additionally, three duals feature undefeated foes clashing.
Penn State comes in with a 9-0 record, 3-0 in Big Ten competition, and is riding a 65-dual winning streak. They have captured NCAA titles in each of the last three seasons, last year lapping the field with a 100-point margin of victory over second-place Cornell. This year’s team has the potential to be even better. All ten starters are currently ranked at least seventh in the country or better. In their three B1G duals this season, the Nittany Lions have outscored their opponents by a 121-10 margin. That’s even with two of their wins coming over teams currently ranked in the top 12 nationally (#6 Nebraska and #12 Rutgers). Cael Sanderson could be on track to win his 12th NCAA team title since 2011.
Tom Brands and company have their hands full despite holding a 9-0 record and they are 3-0 against Big Ten squads, as well. Iowa has nine of their ten probable starters ranked and two of them are currently #1 in the nation. Iowa is also the last team other than Penn State to claim an NCAA team title (2021). Though the Nittany Lions are favorites in the majority of matches, some of them are toss-up’s and if Iowa gets a couple of them, this dual could be very close.
Below is more about the competitors expected to take the mat and predictions for each of the ten matches.
125 lbs - #26 Joey Cruz (Iowa) vs. #7 Luke Lilledahl (Penn State)
This match has gotten much more interesting over the last few weeks of the regular season. Joey Cruz comes into the match after winning his last three Big Ten duals. Two of which came over top-20 opponents in #17 Nicolar Rivera (Wisconsin) and #18 Brendan McCrone (Ohio State). Cruz scuffled earlier in the season as he tried to establish himself as the Hawkeyes starter, but has been excellent since the calendar turned over to 2025. Before this season, Cruz had only seen action in one dual meet. The 2023-24 season was Cruz’s first in Iowa City after transferring in from Oklahoma. He initially signed with the Sooners and spent a year in Norman after being labeled as the #51 overall recruit in the Class of 2022.
Speaking of highly ranked recruits, Luke Lilledahl was deemed the number one overall senior in the Class of 2024 and has immediately jumped into the Nittany Lion lineup. For the first two-plus months of Lilledahl’s collegiate career, he cruised and prevailed in matches you’d expect him to win. Two weeks ago, Lilledahl got that breakthrough win with a late takedown over returning All-American Caleb Smith (Nebraska). He came down to earth a bit last Friday after being stunned by Dean Peterson (Rutgers). So is life in the Big Ten! After back-to-back matches decided on one takedown, I assume Lilledahl will look to let his offense fly more on Friday night.
Prediction: Lilledahl by decision (3-0 Penn State)
133 lbs - #3 Drake Ayala (Iowa) vs. #7 Braeden Davis (Penn State)
One of the three rematches from 2024 that we assume we’ll see again on Friday is Drake Ayala and Braeden Davis at 133 lbs. The 2024 was down at 125 lbs and Ayala prevailed with a 4-2 decision. He would go on to finish third in the Big Ten and advanced all the way to the NCAA finals - as a third seed. This year, Ayala suffered a loss in his second dual meet but has been perfect since with ten straight wins, six included bonus points. In his last outing, Ayala got back then-second-ranked Lucas Byrd of Illinois to help a landslide win for the Hawkeyes. It also helped push Ayala into the #3 national ranking.
A week after his loss to Ayala in the 2024 dual, Davis dropped another B1G matchup, but then got hot at the conference tournament. He posted three straight wins over returning All-Americans to claim the crown as a true freshman. The Big Ten title gave Davis the #1 seed at his first NCAA Tournament. In Kansas City, Davis suffered a close loss to the eventual champion Richie Figueroa in the quarterfinals, then lost against in the bloodround, coming up a match shy of All-American honors. This season, Davis picked up his biggest win thus far when he got by All-American Nasir Bailey by a point at the Collegiate Duals. The sophomore from Michigan suffered his second loss of the season two weeks ago, at Nebraska, when he came out on the wrong side of a wild 14-7 bout against Jacob Van Dee. He rebounded last week by knocking off the returning B1G champion, Dylan Shawver, 2-1.
Prediction: Ayala by decision (3-3 Tie)
141 lbs - Ryder Block (Iowa) vs. #3 Beau Bartlett (Penn State)
You might have forgotten but Beau Bartlett came into this match last season as the number one-ranked wrestler in the 141 lb weight class. This year he’s third behind a pair of national champions; however, he is undefeated at 12-0. Throughout the early part of his career (some of it spent at 149 lbs), Bartlett was known as someone who didn’t light up the scoreboards as much as some of his Penn State teammates. This year he’s done more of that with bonus points in more than 58% of his bouts. Bartlett’s previous high water mark was last year when he did so at a 38% clip. In the last two weeks, Bartlett has picked up wins over a pair of top-15 opponents, the highlight being a comeback win over two-time All-American Brock Hardy.
141 lbs still could be a weight class that Iowa is sorting out. Ryder Block is the presumed favorite to take the mat on Friday night. Block was a two-time Junior National freestyle champion from Iowa who stayed at home and appeared to be a college 149 lber. With the arrival of four-time All-American Kyle Parco and uncertainty at 141 lbs, Block made the move down for this season. Block hasn’t seen much action this year and is only 2-4. He’s hung tough with Danny Pucino and Zach Redding, losing one-point matches to both, but was blown out by 2024 NCAA champion Jesse Mendez in his last outing. With the stylistic matchup and the atmosphere of a #1 vs #2 matchup, I’d expect more of a close match compared to the bonus points that Block surrendered on Saturday.
Prediction: Bartlett by decision (6-3 Penn State)
149 lbs - #2 Kyle Parco (Iowa) vs. #4 Shayne Van Ness (Penn State)
This is a matchup we’ve seen before but with a slight twist. Shayne Van Ness and Kyle Parco met in the third-place bout of the 2023 NCAA Championships and Van Ness posted a 7-2 victory. A few months later, Van Ness defeated Parco, yet again, at the All-Star Classic. Little did we know, that the All-Star win was Van Ness’ last of the 2023-24 season. A few days later, Penn State announced he was sidelined for the remainder of the year due to an injury. Van Ness has returned and looked like the title contender we assumed he would be. He’s either teched or pinned in eight of his 11 wins. Van Ness does come to this match with a blemish on his record as he was majored by Ridge Lovett two weeks ago in the Nittany Lions dual with Nebraska. While Lovett is excellent and a title contender himself, that score is probably a bit of an outlier.
What makes round three between Parco and Van Ness interesting is that Parco has looked like a different wrestler since his transfer from Arizona State. He has doubled his bonus point output from last year to this year (26.7 to 53.9%). Of his 13 wins this season, four have come over past All-Americans, and in three of those contests, he’s managed to tally eight or more points. A big evolution for Parco has been his mat wrestling which was on display in a 15-0 tech over Jaden Abas. That’s precisely where Lovett was able to separate from Van Ness. Could it happen again here?
Prediction: Van Ness by decision (9-3 Penn State)
157 lbs- #1 Jacori Teemer (Iowa) vs. #3 Tyler Kasak (Penn State)
One of the headline matchups, in an evening full of them, is the 157 lb contest between a pair of top-three opponents. Jacori Teemer is a three-time All-American who is coming off a finals appearance at the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Like Parco, Teemer came over from Arizona State in the offseason. Teemer’s Iowa career appeared to be off to a strong start with a major and a fall in his first two matches. That was until the Cy-Hawk dual where Teemer suffered a hamstring injury that put him out for just over two months. On Saturday, he returned to face fellow NCAA finalist Sammy Sasso and looked near top form in a 10-5 victory.
Teemer won’t have any time to ease into competition as now he has the undefeated, third-ranked, Tyler Kasak. Kasak has competed more frequently than the two wrestlers currently ranked above him and has turned in some excellent results. In the highly-anticipated dual versus Nebraska, Kasak notched a 9-3 win over Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational champion Antrell Taylor. Kasak bumped up as a true freshman last season to take over at 149 lbs after Van Ness’ injury and proceeded to take third at nationals. Now, up another weight, Kasak looks better than ever.
Prediction: Kasak by decision (12-3 Penn State)
165 lbs - #2 Michael Caliendo (Iowa) vs. #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (Penn State)
The second of the three rematches in this dual is also the only match between Iowa and Penn State at the 2024 NCAA Championships. In that match, Mitchell Mesenbrink put up a 17-9 major decision to advance to the national finals as a redshirt freshman. This is also the first of three possible matches between undefeated opponents. Mesenbrink has been one of the most dominant wrestlers in the nation this year. His two forfeits are the only of his 13 matches that didn’t end in a tech fall. Of course, an opponent of Caliendo’s caliber will be a big step up from his prior competition. That being said, he did tech Caliendo in the Big Ten semifinals last year.
Caliendo is also notching bonus-point wins at a rate greater than at any other time in his excellent career. He’s up to almost 77% for the year after a major decision win over Paddy Gallagher last Saturday. The previous week, Caliendo cooled off freshman Braeden Scoles with a 20-4 tech fall. After falling to Mesenbrink in the 2024 NCAA semifinals, Caliendo bounced back to take fourth place - his second straight year earning All-American honors. He was seventh in 2023 for North Dakota State. There’s a good chance that this could be a match we see in the Big Ten and NCAA finals.
Prediction: Mesenbrink by major decision (16-3 Penn State)
174 lbs - #6 Patrick Kennedy (Iowa) vs. #2 Levi Haines (Penn State)
Saturday was the day when Patrick Kennedy lost for the first time in the 2024-25 season when he was the victim of a very slight upset from Ohio State All-American Carson Kharchla. He’ll have his hands full trying to get back on the winning track with 2024 NCAA champion Levi Haines. Kennedy is a two-time NCAA qualifier for the Hawkeyes who was a Big Ten runner-up and the sixth seed at the 2023 NCAA Championships. Even so, Kennedy is seeking to earn All-American honors for the first time.
Haines also comes in with a loss on his record. That came at the Collegiate Duals where he was edged in sudden victory by two-time national champion Keegan O’Toole in a classic, number one versus number two matchup. Haines has moved up two weight classes with no ill effects. He’s managed to register four falls and four techs amongst his 11 wins this year. Haines’ only two decision wins have come in his two most recent matches - wins over Lenny Pinto and Jackson Turley.
Prediction: Haines by decision (19-3 Penn State)
184 lbs - #5 Gabe Arnold (Iowa) vs. #1 Carter Starocci (Penn State)
Do we get to see the long-awaited matchup between four-time national champion Carter Starocci and stud redshirt freshman Gabe Arnold? The two have exchanged words dating back to Arnold’s senior year in high school and have kept the feud going as of recently, too. There’s also a chance that Brands will turn to undefeated true freshman Angelo Ferrari. However it works out, this should be a match between unbeaten foes, the second of the night.
Arnold exploded onto the scene last season for Iowa garnering wins over returning All-Americans in each of his first two dual appearances. The second was up a weight class, at 184 lbs, and was instrumental in the Hawkeyes win over Iowa State. Despite the promising start, Arnold was kept in redshirt. In Arnold’s two most recent matches, he happened to face his toughest competition. He posted a win over 2024 Big Ten champion and All-American Edmond Ruth two weeks ago, then outlasted Ryder Rogotzke in sudden victory on Saturday.
Starocci is on his way to making college wrestling history as he has the opportunity to become the first wrestler to win five NCAA titles. His first four came at 174 lbs, but Starocci has moved up in the offseason. Though it wasn’t an official bout, Starocci was able to defeat the returning champion at this weight, Parker Keckeisen, who was perfect in 2023-24. To this point, Starocci’s closest match has been a 10-1 major decision over Missouri’s Colton Hawks. A pair of losses via injury default at the 2024 Big Ten Championships are the only thing standing between Starocci and a winning streak that dates back to March of 2021.
Prediction: Starocci by decision (22-3 Penn State)
197 lbs - #1 Stephen Buchanan (Iowa) vs. #4 Josh Barr (Penn State)
Earlier rumors out of State College last season had Starocci making the jump to 197 lbs which seemed to work out well as Penn State had U20 World silver medalist Josh Barr waiting in the wings at 184 lbs. Starocci ended up only moving up one weight which forced Barr up to 197. That hasn’t proved to be any sort of an issue for Barr who is a perfect 12-0 on the year. Barr already posted dominant wins over returning All-American’s Michael Beard and John Poznanski and he was able to gut out a close one over Stephen Little, another past AA. At the beginning of the year, we weren’t sure what Penn State could expect from the potentially undersized Barr. After a half-season of action, he’s established himself as an NCAA title contender.
As of now, the benchmark for the 197 lb weight class is Stephen Buchanan. Buchanan has finished third in the NCAA on two occasions and is a three-time All-American. He’s another high-profile offseason addition for the Hawkeyes who has panned out and looks better than ever. Buchanan came over from Oklahoma after going 29-3 last season. This year, he has earned bonus points in 11 of 13 wins, which is easily on track for a career-high in bonus-point percentage. Even with his high-scoring ways, Buchanan has had to gut out a few wins this year - including his Hawkeye debut, a 9-5 win over All-American Trey Munoz that may be closer than the score indicated.
This is the third matchup between undefeated wrestlers.
Prediction: Buchanan by decision (22-6 Penn State)
285 lbs - #11 Ben Kueter (Iowa) vs. #2 Greg Kerkvliet (Penn State)
Even though Ben Kueter ultimately redshirted last season, he was saved for this dual, so we get to see a rematch between him and the eventual national champion Greg Kerkvliet. Kueter comes in hot after a win over 2024 Big Ten finalist and All-American Nick Feldman. That was a week after Kueter lost a low-scoring struggle to Illinois’ Luke Luffman. The Feldman win is easily the biggest of Kueter’s collegiate career. That should give him some confidence going into a matchup with Kerkvliet.
Last year’s contest was a 9-1 major decision in favor of the Nittany Lion star. Kerkvliet now carries a 32-match winning streak into Friday’s dual. His win last Friday over All-American Yaraslau Slavikouski is the first regular decision of the year. In fact, there are no major decisions on his resume in 2024-25 - only pins and techs.
Prediction: Kerkvliet by decision (25-6 Penn State)
