Pablo Team Dual Rankings

[Pablo]

Pablo ratings allows us to predict outcomes of matches between two wrestlers.  Using that information, we can compare teams to get prediction for dual meet outcomes.

I've used this approach to get team rankings.  What I've done is to just do a complete round-robin of all 78 D1 teams.  Teams are ranked 1) by their predicted overall records in the exercise, and 2) if they are tied by their average margin-of-victory.

A couple of observations:

1) These are for matches through last weekend

2) Nebraska is slightly ahead of Iowa; Pablo still has Nebraska as a 1.5 point favorite if they rematch, but it's really close

3) Penn St is a 10 point favorite against Ohio St.  That's their closest competition

 

[Pablo]

Rank	Team	Wins	Avg Score Diff
1	Penn State	77	44.4
2	Ohio State	76	37.7
3	Iowa State	75	32.1
4	Oklahoma State	74	30.9
5	Nebraska	73	29.2
6	Iowa	72	27.4
7	Virginia Tech	71	17.9
8	Missouri	70	17.7
9	Illinois	69	17.9
10	Minnesota	68	17.0
11	Cornell	67	15.9
12	Rutgers	66	14.9
13	NC State	64	13.9
13	Stanford	64	13.8
13	Arizona State	64	13.6
16	Oregon State	62	13.6
17	Michigan	61	13.3
18	Pittsburgh	60	12.2
19	Northern Iowa	59	11.8
20	West Virginia	58	10.9

[Pablo]

Rank	Team	Wins	Avg Score Diff
21	Lehigh	57	9.5
22	Wisconsin	56	10.4
23	South Dakota State	55	10.1
24	Wyoming	54	9.3
25	Purdue	53	9.7
26	North Carolina	52	9.3
27	Navy	51	9.2
28	Columbia	50	8.7
29	Pennsylvania	49	7.0
30	Oklahoma	48	6.8
31	Army West Point	47	6.1
32	Lock Haven	46	5.9
33	Indiana	45	4.7
34	North Dakota State	44	3.0
35	Virginia	43	2.9
36	Northwestern	42	2.1
37	Utah Valley	41	2.0
38	Bucknell	40	2.2
39	Drexel	39	1.3
40	Princeton	38	0.2

[Pablo]

Rank	Team	Wins	Avg Score Diff
41	Cal Poly	37	0.0
42	SIU Edwardsville	36	-0.5
43	Maryland	35	-0.9
44	Rider	34	-1.6
45	George Mason	33	-2.1
46	Appalachian State	32	-3.2
47	Little Rock	31	-4.2
48	Northern Illinois	30	-4.9
49	Michigan State	29	-5.8
50	American	28	-6.3
51	Air Force	27	-6.8
52	Central Michigan	26	-7.2
53	Chattanooga	25	-7.9
54	California Baptist	24	-8.1
55	Kent State	23	-8.9
56	Bellarmine	22	-10.4
57	Edinboro	21	-11.2
58	Northern Colorado	20	-11.3
59	Harvard	19	-12.0
60	Ohio	17	-12.2
60	The Citadel	17	-13.8

[Pablo]

Rank	Team	Wins	Avg Score Diff
62	Brown	16	-12.1
62	Franklin & Marshall	16	-13.6
64	Clarion	14	-14.8
65	Hofstra	13	-16.2
66	Binghamton	12	-15.9
67	Buffalo	11	-18.5
68	Campbell	10	-21.6
69	LIU	9	-22.8
70	Davidson	8	-24.3
71	Duke	7	-23.7
72	VMI	5	-25.7
72	Bloomsburg	5	-26.3
74	Gardner-Webb	4	-24.7
74	CSU Bakersfield	4	-25.2
76	Sacred Heart	2	-33.1
77	Morgan State	1	-32.3
79	Presbyterian	0	-36.0