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Showing content with the highest reputation on 03/05/2024 in Articles

  1. The postseason is upon us and the ACC will be taking center stage on Sunday in Chapel Hill. Brackets were just released so let's take a look at what we will see on Sunday. 125: 2 Automatic Qualifiers Jakob Camacho gets the top seed via his victory over Cooper Flynn in the dual. Spencer Moore earns the 3 seed and will look to avenge his only ACC loss against Cooper Flynn in the semifinals. Kyle Montaperto returns from a knee injury to face Logan Agin for a chance to meet Camacho in the semis. I expect this bracket to stay chalk but the Moore-Flynn match could be a dogfight. Moore has had a quietly strong season and his defensive ability could be a huge asset in the postseason. 133: 3 Automatic Qualifiers Dual matches played a big role in how this weight is going to shape up. Kai Orine gets the top seed and Marlon Yarbrough is the 2 with a dominant head-to-head win over Sam Latona who got the 3 seed. Vinnie Santaniello, who has some great wins in an up-and-down season will face Jace Palmer for a chance to square off with Kai Orine in the semis. I’m very much looking forward to Yarbrough-Latona II. Yarbrough has quietly had a great year and looked All-American caliber in his win over Latona in the dual. Latona has consistently shown that he can, and will, win when the stakes are the highest, so I expect a much better outing from him. There is a great chance we see a rematch of last year’s ACC final with Orine and Latona. Their series is 2-2 with the pair splitting in the 2022-23 regular season and the 2023 ACC Tournament. Latona ended the year with a 3-1 win in the NCAA 7th place match, but Orine got a measure of revenge in this year’s dual meet. This one could go a long way in determining the team title. 141: 3 Automatic Qualifiers This was the weight that most were interested to see how the bracket shaped up. And it has the makings of potential chaos. Cole Matthews earned the top seed with his undefeated run through the ACC. Ryan Jack is the 2, Tom Crook the 3 and Lachlan McNeil the 4; Jack Gioffre, who earned the 3rd allocation, will be the 5 seed. If we’ve learned anything from this weight this year, it is to expect the unexpected. Lachlan McNeil is the 5th ranked wrestler in the country and is 0-4 in conference; Cole Matthews entered ACC duals ranked 25 and went 5-0 and has three top-5 upsets on the year. If it goes to seed, we will have All-Americans Cole Matthews and Lachlan McNeil in the top side semifinal and Ryan Jack versus Tom Crook on the bottom. With only 3 allocations, backside matches are going to be critical. The fourth-place wrestler will have a very strong resume for an at-large. This weight will also have a major bearing on team score and will be an important one to keep an eye on. 149: 2 Automatic Qualifiers Top-seeded Caleb Henson and second-seeded Jackson Arrington have separated themselves from the field at this weight and are expected to be the finals matchup. Jayden Scott, the 3-seed, will face Jarred Papscy with the winner getting Arrington in the semis; on the top side, Finn Solomon and Michael Gioffre will square off in a sneaky good matchup to earn the semi against Henson. I would be very surprised to see a final that doesn’t have Henson versus Arrington, but stranger things have happened in the ACC tournament. They have both looked incredible this year and are legitimate NCAA title threats. 157: 2 Automatic Qualifiers This weight had two wrestlers who were on the bubble of earning allocations with Dylan Cedeno and Sonny Santiago, so there will be some stout competition for the two spots. That being said, the two that earned the allocations will be facing off in the semifinals. Sonny Santiago gets the top seed holding a win over Ed Scott. Scott is the second seed with Bryce Andonian at the three coming off a lengthy absence with a knee injury. Cedeno, who is also returning from an injury, will check in at four. If it goes to seed, Santiago and Cedeno will be on the top side and Andonian and Scott will have, yet another chapter in their rivalry, on the bottom side. This match will have major, major implications on the team race. Whoever places third will likely receive an at-large, and the 4th place wrestler will have a good case to be made as well. 165: 2 Automatic Qualifiers I was surprised by the seeding at this weight. The allocations were earned by Derek Fields and Connor Brady, with Holden Heller just missing criteria for winning percentage by 0.5%. Fields gets the top seed, despite a loss to Brady, who lost to Heller. Heller gets the 2 seed with Brady at 3 and Nick Hamilton at 4. Brady will open with Gaetano Console and Hamilton will have Isaias Estrada for a shot at the semis. Seeds have Fields facing Hamilton and Brady against Heller. Fields has looked excellent this year and has the edge over Hamilton, I see Brady-Heller as a complete toss-up. Will we see the Connor Brady who was aggressive and offensive against Fields, or the defensive and tentative Brady who has several close losses? That will determine who we see in finals. 174: 4 Automatic Qualifiers This one shook out mostly as expected; Mekhi Lewis-1, Justin McCoy-2, Tyler Eischens-3, Alex Faison-4. Faison will face Luca Augustine to open the tournament and Eischens will face Jack Wimmer. The Faison-Augustine match is very intriguing to me; Faison is 4-0 lifetime against Augustine, but Luca has looked excellent this year. McCoy and Eischens had a fun match in the dual that will make for an interesting rematch. I lean towards a Mekhi Lewis versus Justin McCoy final; Lewis won a 2-0 decision in the dual. 184: 4 Automatic Qualifiers The final week of the season had a major impact on this bracket. TJ Stewart knocked off Dylan Fishback in the dual, who was ranked in the top ten at the time. Stewart gets the top seed, with Reece Heller 2, Dylan Fishback 3 and returning All-American Gavin Kane 4. Kane will face Ethan Weatherspoon for a shot at Stewart and Fishback will have Conor Becker with a semifinal trip on the line. I love how this shapes up with youth versus veterans for both semifinals. If it goes to seed we have redshirt freshman TJ Stewart versus All-American and two-time NCAA qualifier Gavin Kane on the top side, with redshirt freshman Dylan Fishback against three-year starter and one-time NCAA qualifier Reece Heller. Stewart comes in with an incredible amount of momentum and back-to-back top-10 victories, it will be interesting to see if he can keep that momentum alive. 197: 4 Automatic Qualifiers Trent Hidlay stands alone atop the bracket at 197, having dominant wins over everyone in the conference. Andy Smith was 4-1 in conference and gets the 2 seed with Max Shaw at 3 and Mac Stout at 4. Shaw will open with Kwasi Bonsu for a shot at the semifinal opposite Smith. Stout will face Krystian Kinsey for a spot against Hidlay. The dual match between Andy Smith and Max Shaw was a 4-2 upset in favor of Smith; I would expect another tight match here to earn a finals berth. The Hokies will need Smith to make the finals to stay in the team race with NC State. Hidlay is a heavy heavy favorite here and will be looking to make a statement going into the NCAA tournament. 285: 2 Automatic Qualifiers This is another weight where the conference just missed an extra allocation and it is going to make the semifinals even crazier. Owen Trephan made it through the conference season unscathed to get the top seed. Hunter Catka earned the 2 opposite his brother Ryan who is the 3; we will likely see the brother battle determine a guaranteed trip to Kansas City. The wildcard here is Dayton Pitzer, at the 4, seed who has been out since injuring his shoulder against Cohlton Schultz. Pitzer has shown that he can compete with anyone in the country when healthy--but how healthy will he be when he takes the mat on Sunday? Connor Barket will be looking to play the bad guy and get some upsets on his way to a bid; he has had some big wins this year and Duke heavyweights tend to be dialed in for the postseason. If it goes chalk, we will have Trephan and Hunter Catka which we haven’t seen this season--Trephan got a late takedown to beat Jimmy Mullen in the dual.
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  2. Brackets are out for the 2024 Nation Collegiate Women’s Wrestling Championships, and it is going to be an exciting one. With the addition of a seemingly unstoppable Iowa team in their inaugural run at the title, plus returning champs North Central also maxing out their lineup, it’s truly anyone’s game. And that is not even factoring in historically top talent from McKendree and King. You won't want to miss the action this weekend, so here are a few things to keep an eye out for at each weight. 101 lbs: Top seed - Emilie Gonzalez, Iowa Iowa is claiming the top 2 spots at this weight with Emilie Gonzalez as the 1 seed and Sterling Dias at 2. However, with how volatile these lower weights can be, I would not expect most seeds to hold. Keep an eye out for Avery Kibelbek of King, who receives a bye in her first round and will then likely see Genesis Ramirez of Aurora, whom she beat 8-0 in a dual earlier this year, before meeting up with Gonzalez. On the opposite side of the bracket, look out for Madison Avila to make a run where she’ll likely meet up with Jessica Corredor of King, which was a semifinal match last year that ended with a 9-0 win for Avila after putting Corredor on her back and working for the pin for the last 30 seconds of the match. If brackets do hold, Gonzalez does have the most recent win over Dias from regionals, but it could go either way. 109 lbs: Top seed - Kendra Ryan, North Central Behind Kendra Ryan, is Ava Bayless of Iowa who has really shown out this season. I would be really curious to see which one could pull off the win if they were to meet in the finals. The two did face off at US Nationals last year with Ryan getting a dominant tech, but I do think Bayless could even the score especially if she has a dominant run in the rest of the tournament. Her first big obstacle should be Jaslynn Gallegos of North Central in the semis, which would be fireworks after the two met up at National Duals with Bayless winning the 5-5 decision on criteria. I think that makes this match a real toss-up for the finals, which could end up all North Central. However, Ryan’s side of the bracket will not be any easier, with returning All-Americans Pauline Granados of McKendree, and Kaelani Shufledt of Lock Haven. 116 lbs: Top seed - Samara Chavez, King Both Chavez and 2-seed Sydney Petzinger of North Central will have to get through some tough competition, including an Iowa wrestler on each side of the bracket to make it to the finals. I am looking for Felicity Taylor to make this one interesting after having a bye in the first and then a probable match against Tatiana Walker of Sacred Heart before meeting up with Chavez. With Taylor bumping down weights late in the season, she has not seen a lot of the competitors at the weight, but on the flip side, they have not gotten to test her either. Also representing the Hawkeyes, Iowa’s Brianna Gonzalez dropped her most recent match to Petzinger 8-4, so she’ll need to reverse that result to make it into the finals. 123 lbs: Top seed - Shelby Moore, McKendree This is a weight that has the potential for some upsets and interesting quarters and semis matches, but I could still see a scenario where the 1 and 2 still match up in the finals, with Amani Jones of North Central trying to reverse her loss to Moore at National Duals to end up on top. However, Moore has looked so solid this season and should be able to hold her own against the tough wrestlers in her path including teammate Nichole Moore and either Ava Rose of Iowa or Virginia Ford of King whom Moore has already teched both of this season. 130 lbs: Top seed - Victoria Baez-Dilone, King McKendree’s Cam Guerin is seeded #2 at this weight, but her close criteria loss to Baez-Dilone shows just how close some of these wrestlers are, and it is still anyone’s title to claim. Another rockstar here will be Lexi Janiak of Aurora as the 3-seed, putting her in Guerin’s path to the finals. We could also see a meeting between McKendree’s other talented 130 lber Jennifer Soto and Iowa’s Emily Frost to determine the quarters and semis. Also, don’t forget to keep an eye out for Salome Walker of North Central, who would have a tough path against both Janiak and then Guerin if she can make it to that point, but with Walker winning over Janiak because of an injury default, I am really looking to see what that match could be. 136 lbs: Top seed - Yele Aycock, North Central While Claire DiGungo of King is the second seed here, I think this is the weight that could have the most surprising final matchup. While Aycock has shined this season, she has had to show a lot of grit in her matches to end up on top, and this tournament will be no exception. She will likely see McKendree’s Estella Gutches in her first match after a bye, and a win there means a tough and determined Lilly Luft of Iowa, and then Colorado Mesa’s Holly Beaudoin. On the other side, DiGungo could see Grace Stem of Lock Haven and Viktorya Torres of McKendree. With team scores so close in this runoff, 136 could be make or break for top teams. 143 lbs: Top seed - Alara Boyd, North Central With the recent announcement that the #3 seed Emma Bruntil is withdrawing from the tournament, brackets got a little shaken up with Reese Larramendy of Iowa still holding onto the 2nd spot, Athena Willden of William Jewel moving up to third and shifting the remaining seeds. The addition to the bracket will be fifth-place finisher at Region V, Aniyah Kelly of Wartburg. I think it will be hard for anyone to hold off Boyd, who had a dominant win over Larramendy at National Duals. That being said, other wrestlers could make things interesting on the back end to score pivotal team points like Iowa’s other competitor at the weight Ella Schmit, or Maddie Kubicki whom I highlighted in my preseason work as a wrestler who could come into the spotlight by the end of the season. 155 lbs: Top seed - Marlynne Deede, Iowa Cheyenne Bowman of King as the two-seed is looking to make it to the finals again, but this time she’s down a weight from her impressive run at 170 lbs last season. She’ll need to make a serious run to keep points away from Iowa and North Central who both have two tough wrestlers in this bracket as well. Along with Deede, breakout star Bella Mir will compete for the Hawkeyes, and each should have meetings with their North Central counterparts Loudon Houston for Deede in the semis, and Tiera Jimerson in the first round against Mir. Bowman will likely see the winner of that match or Nina Makem of Augsburg in the semis and will need to compete at a high level regardless of opponent in this pivotal weight for team scoring. 170 lbs: Top seed - Kylie Welker, Iowa If you do not plan to watch this tournament in its entirety, which you should, please put on calendar alerts for the finals match at 170 lbs here. We should see Kylie Welker of Iowa, who has dominated her way through this season, capped off by a next-level performance at regionals where she only wrestled for 2 total minutes. Her likely opponent would be 3x National champ Yelena Makoyed of North Central, who is taking up the 2-seed with a loss to Welker earlier in the season at National Duals. I really think in the run-off to team champ, North Central and Iowa will be the top two, so having a champ here would be big for either team. While I don’t think any wrestlers will be able to stop these two on their run through the bracket, keep an eye out for some tough matchups on the top half of the bracket with Haley Ward of Iowa facing off against Henlee Haynes of Presbyterian and Love Daley of Sacred Heart going up against Jade Herzer of UW-Stevens Point. The winners of those two matches will then likely face off for the match against Welker in the semis. 191 lbs: Top seed - Traeh Haynes, North Central I don’t think it would be a stretch to see an all-North Central final between Traeh Haynes and 2-seed Brittyn Corbishley. The two have dominated all season and created an almost impenetrable wall for the Cardinals in the 191 lb spot of the lineup. That being said, you have some talented competitors in advantageous bracket positions that could make things more interesting. Madeline Hodges of Sacred Heart gets Sydney Manos of Aurora in the second round to make it to the quarters against Haynes. However, you’ll probably also see Jaycee Foeller of Iowa take on Sara Lake of Lindenwood in the quarters as well, both of whom could pose a real semis threat. I think Corbishley gets a bit of an easier bracket and should avoid too much pressure until meeting up with Sandra Guerrero of New Jersey City in the semis, if Guerrero competes at the level she’s been showing this season. Overall, this is going to be an excellent tournament full of close matches and exciting action. The race between reigning champs North Central, newcomers Iowa, battle-tested King, and former champs McKendree will be tight through each round. It is truly anyone’s trophy at this point. Please see my graphic for how team scoring will work at this tournament:
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  3. Minnesota All-American Pat McKee sits down with Ryan Holmes before his final postseason. McKee reflects on his time with the Minnesota program, his recruitment through his time as a leader for the Golden Gophers. He also discusses the state of the 125 lb weight class, battles with Eric Barnett and much more.
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  4. Big Ten pre-seeds were released last night at 7pm/Eastern live on the Big Ten Network, which was a good new feature. You’re always told to judge people by their actions, not their works, so the Big Ten Network decided to use their television time to wedge in another wrestling-related production. That’s telling me that they understand wrestling is an important part of their broadcast options. It’s also a vehicle to promote the tournament that they’ll broadcast later this week. The pre-seeds provide the first bit of framework for the tournament itself. Anyone who has been around a tournament or two knows how the seeds may interact within a traditional bracket. Since we have pre-seeds, there are plenty of potential matchups we can hope for or perhaps some that we don’t anticipate seeing. In the aftermath of the pre-seed release, we had eight reactions related to them. Remember these pre-seeds aren’t set in stone, so there could be some movement between now and the ringing of the first whistle on Saturday. 1. Brody Teske is the 14th seed I wasn’t quite sure how the seeding committee would handle Brody Teske, provided he was Iowa’s entrant. Teske had a win over Jacob Van Dee (the #4 seed), but limited other head-to-head’s against many of the key players at the weight. That ended up not mattering as Teske’s name was submitted as an entrant after the deadline set by the Big Ten. That means he would assume the 14th seed regardless of his resume. Teske as the 14th seed sets up a first-round matchup with Nic Bouzakis. It isn’t an ideal match for Teske right off the bat, but at the same time, it isn’t great for Bouzakis either. We’ll see how the bracket plays out, but Teske did not earn an automatic bid for the Big Ten, so he’ll have to place in the top seven to feel confident about getting to Kansas City. 2. What to do about Brayton Lee? One of the questions I had before the seeds were released was how to handle Brayton Lee in the seeding process? Lee is unbeaten, but with a very limited schedule that included eight matches. He did have two really solid wins over true freshman Joey Blaze and two-time NCAA All-American Will Lewan. Lee’s lack of losses definitely helped him as he received the third seed above Jared Franek and Peyton Robb, among others. Lee as the third seed sets up a potential quarterfinal matchup with #6 Chase Saldate. The two met last year and Saldate prevailed, though Lee was nowhere near 100%. Looking ahead in the brackets, there’s a potential for a semifinal clash between Lee and his former teammate, #2 Michael Blockhus. The Blaze and Lewan wins show that this isn’t the Lee from 2022-23; however, we’re still not sure of just how close he is to the wrestler who was twice a top-seven seed at nationals. Obviously, with a loaded weight class like 157 lbs, we should have a good idea come Sunday. 3. Cam Amine gets the #6 seed! In our “Projecting the Big Ten Seeds” article (which were generally very accurate…no big deal), we had Cam Amine as the seventh seed at 165 lbs. I made the case that were you to look blindly at resumes, with no context given, Amine probably could have gotten the eighth seed. After all, he doesn’t have any conference wins this year. Were he to receive the eighth seed, that would have created a potential quarterfinal match with top-seeded Dean Hamiti. Hamiti has never beaten Amine in college despite the current disparity between the two in rankings. I may be in the minority, but I’m okay with the seeding. I like having the numbers and raw data to create a framework for the seeds, but some sort of wiggle room for seeds that “just make sense.” Last year, the EIWA’s formula spit out second seeds for Patrick Glory and Yianni Diakomihalis. It had no impact on either of their performances, but created some issues for others in the bracket. 4. Ruth/Welsh de facto semifinal match One of the biggest storylines heading into the Big Ten Championships is the status of three-time national champion Carter Starocci. He appeared to have a serious leg injury during the Nittany Lions season finale against Edinboro. The question is, how much will Starocci wrestle? Does he do a pair of injury defaults? Does he wrestle until the semifinals when he clinches a place in the top-six and earns an NCAA bid (top 8 go to nationals)? Or does he wrestle the entire tournament? Should he choose either of the first two options, that could make the quarterfinal bout between the fourth (Edmond Ruth) and fifth (Rocco Welsh) seeds a de facto semifinal match? When I did seed projections, I had both wrestlers in those same slots; however, I didn’t imagine how much impact that potential result could yield. Ruth is currently ranked eighth and Welsh is 11th. A Big Ten finals appearance is huge for NCAA seeding, regardless of how it happened. Now, it seems like we’re already crowning Ruth/Welsh Big Ten finalists, first we’ll have to know if Starocci is out of the picture, plus the eighth (DJ Washington) and ninth (Andrew Sparks) seeds may have something to say about this, as well. 5. Three and Four at 184 lbs I wasn’t sure exactly how three through seven would fall at 184 lbs because you had a big group of wrestlers who had beaten each other. Five through seven fell as I thought they would; however, three and four were flip-flopped. Bernie Truax has the three and Ryder Rogotzke the four despite the Buckeye’s head-to-head win. All-in-all, Truax has a “cleaner” resume than Rogotzke and the past accomplishments on his side. I suppose that was enough for seeding purposes. What it does is put Truax on the same side of the bracket as Lenny Pinto, a guy that Truax seemingly had on the ropes during their late-season meeting. I’d guess that Nebraska would prefer that Pinto faces the freshman he’s never seen before rather than the three-time All-American from Penn State. Rogotzke is on the same side of the bracket as top-seeded Isaiah Salazar whom he hasn’t faced either. Salazar doesn’t have history with Truax either, but I’m sure he’s fine with the veteran on the other half of the bracket. 6. Preseeds couldn’t figure out the back half of 141 In guessing the pre-seeds, I spent a good deal of time trying to make sense of #8-#11 at 141 lbs. They’ve all beaten each other and there are points for and against each of them assuming the eighth seed. Ultimately, Jordan Hamdan received the eighth seed and Dan Fongaro and Vance Vombaur tied for the ninth seed. Later in the week, they’ll decide between Fongaro and Vombaur. Aside from using rankings (where Fongaro is higher), I’m not sure of a magic solution that will differentiate between the two resumes. 7. Good spot for Sergio Lemley One of the top freshmen in the conference this year was Michigan’s Sergio Lemley at 141 lbs. Lemley showed he was ready for prime time with a major decision win over returning national finalist Real Woods in Michigan’s upset win over Iowa. Every year, it seems like we get a freshman who takes his lumps during the season, then puts it all together and reverses a loss or two in the postseason. Is Lemley that guy in 2024? Looking at his fifth seed at 141 lbs, I think he could be. A fifth seed in the Big Ten generally isn’t ideal, but I like the individual matchups that are in front of Lemley. The quarterfinals could feature a rematch between him and 2023 Big Ten runner-up and All-American Brock Hardy. In their regular season matchup, Hardy prevailed 13-9. It was one of the more entertaining matches of the year with a bunch of takedowns and reversals. My takeaways were that if Lemley were to clean up some of his technique, he could flip that result in the future. Well, now’s the future. Should he take out Hardy, you have Beau Bartlett looming in the semifinals. Generally, you don’t want to see an undefeated top-ranked wrestler on your half of the bracket. In this instance, Bartlett is someone who wrestles a lot of close matches. His win over Lemley, earlier in the season, came with a two-point margin. That might be another match that Lemley and the Michigan staff feel like they could reverse should that matchup occur again. 8. Potential for chaos at 125 lbs We’ve waited until the last point to discuss anything 125 lb-related. That has to be a record for this season. The opening weight class has surely given fans and media something to talk about. Having a top seed or top-ranking at 125 has almost been a curse. There was a four-week span where the #2 wrestler changed four different times. This is literally the weight class where “you can throw the seeds out the window.” They don’t matter. Anything can happen. Insert all of the cliches a coach says to his lower-ranked wrestler! In most tournaments, getting a higher seed is a reward for your past accomplishments. In the Big Ten, in 2024, having a top seed doesn’t really differentiate you from the rest of the field (minus a first-round bye for Matt Ramos and Drake Ayala). The potential reward for a win in the quarterfinals by Ramos - a semifinal matchup with either Patrick McKee or Caleb Smith. McKee is always a difficult matchup; though Ramos holds a 3-0 career edge on his former teammate. Smith is responsible for one of Ramos’ three losses this year (at the Cliff Keen Las Vegas Invitational). Looking at the other half of the bracket, Ayala could have a quarterfinals matchup with Michigan’s Michael DeAugustino. The Wolverines stunning dual win over Iowa started with DeAugustino’s 2-1 win in tiebreakers over Ayala. Iowa and Ayala have probably hoped to get this matchup again, as it wasn’t a dominating victory - one that couldn’t be reversed. All things considered, I think the seeds worked out as well as could have been expected at 125. Ramos at #1, Ayala at #2, Smith at #5, and DeAugustino at #7 were the same as I predicted. They do make sense based on each wrestler's total conference resume. At the same time, it’s really weird that the only wrestler in the field to beat Ramos could have him in the semis. Aside from Ramos, the only wrestler in the field to beat Ayala has him in the quarters. But it’s par for the course. Everything associated with 125 lbs this year has been kind of weird.
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