RAF card 1 predictions for this weekend

[Truzzcat]

NATO vs Ramos: I think this is a very competitive match that largely hinges upon if we get the Ramos that trusts himself or the version that is a bit more passive. I also think there is a chance that freestyle is Ramos's better style. That being said I am going with NATO I think he is a bit bigger and I liked what I saw in him beating nico and going 2-1 with Blaze at the open.

Woods vs Caldwell: I do not think this match is very close. Darian is older and has presumably been off the mat exclusively for a good bit of time, I am not aware if he got back into coaching after MMA but I want to assume this match is no problem for Real. If it is then we need to really temper our expectations for worlds. I could see Caldwell giving him something to worry about on their feet but I think one takedown and real ends it on top. Also not sure how long its been since Darian felt a head pinch like real has but I could see that being a big factor as well Ill go real by tech.

Hildebrandt vs Hernandez: Hernandez has a pretty impressive age level resume but I don't think she is going to have any answers for Sarah even with Sarah being off the mat.

Dake vs Hamiti: This one is really fun. I think Kyle is a bit bigger for the time being and really struggle to see how he finishes on kyle. He is absolutely going to need to get Dakes foot off the mat or he is going to go for a ride. I think Dean needs at least two takedowns here and I just do not see how he gets two. Kyle was an absolute mat general against a much bigger PK and I see a lot of the same going on here.

Wick vs Nolf: Another very fun one. I firmly believe Nolf would have been our guy had he gone this year at 79kg and I think I may have still picked him even if he just entered the open and started training from there. He is still doing his instructional's and coaching and while BJJ is not even close to a 1 for 1 to wrestling he is still rolling and probably has a bit of a different feel than he had before. I would not be entirely shocked if Wick won this but I would also not be shocked if Nolf techs him, going with Nolf.

Palmer vs Gomez: These guys have been chirping a bit online and for that reason I am anticipating Gomez not f'ing around and going out and smoking Lance. Lance was an incredible collegiate wrestler but I am not sure if he wrestled much Freestyle and I think Gomez is going to medal this year. Think this may be the most lop sided match on the card, Gomez by tech.

Yianni vs Bajarang: Two of my favorite wrestlers to watch ever. Their first match was Yianni's coming out party to the international scene, and there second match Yianni beat the breaks off of him. I think with Yiannis heart now under control + him being more a true size for the weight and Bajrangs inactivity this match is far closer to their last encounter than their first. Yianni by tech.

Kennedy vs Rivera: Rivera got 5th at pan ams in 2024 and did not wrestle an american, thats all I really need to know about this one, Kennedy by tech.

Wyatt vs Elders: I really like this matchup for wyatt because Elders is a bit smaller and more athletic similarly to how Trent was. I think Wyatt will do well with the bigger guys at worlds besides maybe Zare, the Munkturs and shapirovs worry me a bit more but this will be a great indicator on how Wyatt is moving and a good warm up for him. Wyatt by tech

Nickal vs Cardenas: This match is awesome and I am glad Bo did not get a layup first match back. I expect Cardenas to be the bigger guy here, but I do not think size will be super relevant. It does seem like while Bo has obviously been focusing on MMA he still is on the mat a lot. I just wonder where his timing is at and Cardenas has always been better at freestyle. Basch made the argument that he feels to beat Bo you need to be a medal contender this year and while I am not sure I would go that far, Cardenas had a relatively competitive match with Firouzpour who is probably the on paper favorite at 92 so I dont think its a stretch that Cardenas could have medal'd this year. Going with Cardenas in a close one.

[okokzach]

I don't understand the high expectations for Cardenas but I may be missing some context. I tried looking into what he's done in freestyle and all I can find is the 2024 U23 silver. He went through Seth Shumate and Wyatt Voelker to make that team. Is there anything else? Why didn't he compete at Trials this year? 

[Truzzcat]

19 minutes ago, okokzach said:

I don't understand the high expectations for Cardenas but I may be missing some context. I tried looking into what he's done in freestyle and all I can find is the 2024 U23 silver. He went through Seth Shumate and Wyatt Voelker to make that team. Is there anything else? Why didn't he compete at Trials this year? 

I heard he is repping a different country so maybe getting that transitioned over? Most of the hype is based on him being a 3x u23 medalist and only losing to the champ each year, I think. Although Bagaev is really the only win of note he has in those tournaments. However Bagaev is a 2x age level world champ and beat Mike mach 8-0 so that is definitely a decent win to hang your hat on. I think Arslan was the one that controversially lost to Sadulaev in the wrestle off Alan is the one that cardenas beat but someone would need to fact check me on that.