PREVIEW: The ILLINI versus Purdue

[ILLINIWrestlingBlog]

 

 

WHAT: ILLINI dual Purdue

WHEN: Saturday, February 1 at 2:00 pm Central

WHERE: Huff Hall

ADMISSION: Free

SPECIAL: Military Appreciation Day

TV/STREAMING: BTN+ (subscription service)

 

 

 

 

 

A DAY IN HISTORY

It is February 16, 2024. 

You are almost stuck at home babysitting little brother, but Tomb Raider Remastered just came out, and you know that he and his salacious little weasel friends will be locked up in his room for 48 hours playing the game. 

Wendy suggested that you go with her to see Madame Web or Lisa Frankenstein. You told her [cough, cough] that you were sick. That's because you and the boys have planned a road trip to West Lafayette. 

Beyoncé's Texas Hold'Em is playing on the radio preset when you start the car, at least until you almost break your finger turning it off. Cheesy Burrito, your high school team's heavyweight, brought the new Ye piece, and he plugs it in. 

You're worried.

You know this is a bruised and battered bunch of ILLINI taking the mat against Purdue. Lucas Byrd and now Joe Roberts are out for the year. On top of that, both Braunagels are taking Olympic redshirts. 

Freshmen Caelan Riley, Logan Swaw, Chris Moore and Peter Marinopoulos are in the lineup. Gulp! Oh, and you forgot, Isiah Pettigrew is playing the hero, coming back from in-season knee surgery. But somehow, you find yourself screaming as the ILLINI start taking care of business with a Pucino pin and a Ruth major. 

After 197, Purdue leads 18-16. You swore that Freshman "heavyweight" Peter Marinopoulos just tried to score with a flying squirrel. He did get two takedowns and a win, and ILLINOIS comes from behind for the 19-18 victory! Here's a link to the recap, and below you have the box score and a photo:

 

125:	#1 Matt Ramos (PUR) tech. fall Caelan Riley (ILL), 17-1 (4:55)	ILL 0 I PUR 5
133:	#24 Tony Madrigal (ILL) dec. Dustin Norris (PUR), 7-2	ILL 3 I PUR 5
141:	#25 Danny Pucino (ILL) pins Christian White (PUR), (6:10)	ILL 9 I PUR 5
149:	Marcos Polanco (PUR) dec. Jake Harrier (ILL), 10-8	ILL 9 I PUR 8
157:	Isaac Ruble (PUR) dec. Logan Swaw (ILL), 5-1	ILL 9 I PUR 11
165:	#31 Stoney Buell (PUR) major dec. Chris Moore (ILL), 11-3	ILL 9 I PUR 15
174:	#8 Edmond Ruth (ILL) major dec. #32 Brody Baumann (PUR), 11-2	ILL 13 I PUR 15
184:	Dylan Connell (ILL) dec. James Rowley (PUR), 5-3	ILL 16 I PUR 15
197:	Ben Vanadia (PUR) dec. Isiah Pettigrew (ILL), 9-7	ILL 16 I PUR 18
285:	Peter Marinopoulos (ILL) dec. Hayden Filipovich (PUR), 8-6	ILL 19 I PUR 18

 

 

THE TEAMS

Wrestlestat.com predicts a 26-7 win for the good guys. The ILLINI are the #13 dual team in the country, while the Boilermakers are at #33. The Orange and Blue have an 8-3 record, 3-3 in conference, with wins over SIUE (41-3), Binghamton (30-10), Arizona State (37-6), Missouri (23-14), North Carolina (24-14), Indiana (34-3), Northwestern (33-7) and Maryland (33-7). The losses were to Ohio State (9-24), Iowa (6-28) and the criteria mishap with Rutgahs (15-16).

Purdue is 8-3, 1-2 in conference. They have beaten Gardner-Webb (34-10), Buffalo (45-0), Princeton (26-15), Chattanooga (41-3), Cleveland State (35-9), Kent State (31-10), Northwestern (31-13) and NIU (29-8). They've lost to Army (19-20), Indiana (11-25) and Ohio State (10-24).

 

INDIVIDUAL MATCHUPS

125. #149 CAELAN RILEY vs. #2 Matt Ramos. The Boiler has a huge advantage in the rankings, in records versus common opponents, and in previous head-to-head results. In last year's dual, Ramos scored a tech fall against Riley. This year, the algorithm is predicting a major decision. 

Against a national finalist, that would be a fine, even expected result. Caelan got his first Big Ten dual win recently, so we can anticipate an improvement over last season's tech fall result. 

On the other hand, Ramos is 20-0 on the season with a 75% bonus rate that includes eleven tech falls. Caelan will need to fight against those tilts. 

133. #3 LUCAS BYRD vs. #95 Dustin Norris. The Purdue kid is a quality wrestler undervalued at #95 by Wrestlestat.com. He was a teammate of Lucas' at La Salle in Cincinnati, Ohio and a 2x state champ. Norris is 6-7 on the year and 30-42 in his career, but he was recently on a five-win streak. That ended in his last two duals, which were a tech fall loss to Angelo Rini of Indiana and a loss by major decision to Nic Bouzakis. 

We are going to guess that the Boilermaker, as he's tall for the weight, might be having problems with the cut. He was at 100 pounds in 2017, then 106, then 113 and finally 126 in high school. Lucas has a decision and a major against him in their two dual matchups. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a 10-3 decision for the ILLINI. There is a massive disparity between their records against common opponents. Byrd is 32-1 against the same guys who hung an 8-23 record on Norris. 

141. #18 DANNY PUCINO vs. #43 Greyson Clark. Unless he's a caped crusader with a secret identity, we think that no ILLINI should lose to a guy named Greyson. Unless it is at bridge or cribbage. Clark is 9-8 on the season with a commendable 26-18 career mark. At last year's dual, this was only a two-point win for Danny, so we will need the Irish Italian Turbo Leprechaun up for this match. 

The two have similar records against opponents, but Pucino has a perfect 6-0 record against Boilermakers, and that includes their former All American at this weight, Parker Filius. Wrestlestat.com is going with an 11-6 win for the good guy. 

Pucino is Purdue Kryptonite!

149. #10 KANNON WEBSTER vs. #122 Isaac Ruble. The Purdue kid wrestled 157 last season and had his best record at 8-4. That included a dual win over Logan Swaw. He's at 7-7 this year in a full-time starter's role. This weight seems to be less agreeable to him, as he's given up a fall and a major decision to D'Emilio and Cartella from OSU and Northwestern.

Ruble tried a slow standing granby against D'Emilio, and the Buckeye was waiting with a half-nelson to get the fall. The Boiler is a leg rider. 

The best wrestler he's beaten at this weight is #84, and he also lost to that guy on the same day. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a major for the stud from Washington. 

157. #46 JASON KRAISSER vs. #10 Joey Blaze. The algorithm points in the other direction in this match, predicting a regular decision for Blaze. They have remarkably similar 6-7 and 6-8 records against common opponents with Kraisser's mark slightly better than his opponent's. 

But it is Blaze with the current 13-3 record (30-15 career) and a pretty recent 2-0 win over Peyton Keller of Ohio. He also beat Trevor Chumbley, Peyton Robb and Ed Scott last season. He's got some very good wins, and during the last two years, he seems to always beat the wrestler in front of him unless they are ranked at least #20. Wrestlestat.com is predicting a relatively easy 10-6 win for him, but does that include mad scrambles?

Against good opponents, Blaze likes the long scrambles that are opportunities for Cardiac Kraisser.

 

The remainder and a full unedited version at this link.