Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Date: Oct. 8, 2011
The UFC Monster is coming off another winning card from UFC 135, but now it's time to again find more winners than losers, and do it again! My mission is to find flaws in the Las Vegas betting line on UFC fight cards, and turn those flaws into winning betting opportunities for our readers. It is not our intention to promote gambling, but rather to give some strong handicapping tools and opinions for those who do. I have done well over the years as archived on this website. We generally favor wrestlers over strikers, buy today's mixed martial arts athlete is cross-trained in all aspects of the sport. One-dimensional fighters are a thing of the past in the UFC.
Tonight's card features two (2) championship bouts. Undefeated Gray "The Bully" Maynard (10-0-1) will try to capture the lightweight (155 pounds) belt from champion Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (13-1-1), whose only blemishes have been to Maynard. Both are strong former Div.1 AA wrestlers.Their last fight was an amazing back-and-forth affair, where Maynard dominated early, and Edgar came on strong later. How can this rematch not be "Fight of the Night" (+175 odds)? I'll take the bait.
I also like Maynard in this rematch as a slight underdog (+120). The fight is even. I'm not sure how a guy 0-1-1 against his opponent warrants being the favorite? With the support of the MMA fighters who were polled, I will take the odds on Maynard, as he shockingly ends this fight in the third round with some dominant ground-and-pound. A TKO win goes on the Bully's resume. That puts me on UNDER 4.5 rounds at +190 as well.
The other title bout is the featherweight (145 pounds) championship between Jose "Scarface" Aldo (19-1) vs. challenger Kenny "Ken Flo" Florian (14-5), whose sharp elbows, solid striking, jiu-jitsu skills, and Octagon experience will offer a challenge to Aldo. But Scarface is on another level. His speed, power, and range of skills have dominated his weight class. KenFlo beats many good fighters, but always seems to lose the big ones (Shawn Sherk, B.J. Penn, Gray Maynard). Kenny likes to say that "he finishes fights!" But an improved, hard-working Florian will again be disappointed as Jose Aldo lays him flat midway through the second period. Take Aldo at -350 to retain his championship belt by TKO.
There is no bigger trash-talker in the UFC than wrestling's Chael Sonnen (25-11-1), a middleweight (185 pounds) who takes on ex-Marine and powerful striker Brian Stann (11-3). One of the best handicapping tools to use in this sport is to lay odds on a ground controlling wrestler to be an overzealous striker. This fight fits that profile perfectly, as 15 of Sonnen's 25 wins have been by boring decision. He doesn't "finish" fights. He gets his takedown and then lays and prays, doing just enough to control his opponent and earn a decision. Stann will need some great takedown defense to survive here. And, I think he can get it with a knee of quick strike while Chael shoots for the takedown. The +210 underdog odds make this an attractive play for me, as I want to bet with my heart and not my head here. I am not a fan of Sonnen's and his disrespect for the sport I love, MMA.
However, Chael is a great ambassador for amateur wrestling. NOBODY, not even Scott Casber, promotes wrestling like he does! He is one hundred percent behind amateur wrestling and he wants to educate the public and promote the sport. Believe me, nothing would make me happier than to see Chael leave the UFC (after a loss to a patriotic marine) and make himself a full-time ambassador for wrestling. A smart gambler leaves his emotions on the sidelines. So I will PASS on this fight, and just watch and hope for the best for the USMC.
Melvin "The Young Assassin" Guillard (29-8-2) is a beast at 155 pounds. And, he has been on a mega-roll since joining Greg Jackson's camp. He has won 19 fights by KO, and has won eight of his last nine fights, losing only to Nate Diaz by submission … and this is where we find our edge. Guillard has lost seven of his eight losses by submission! And, Joe Lauzon is a submission guru with 16 submission victories out of his 20 wins!!! The key for Lauzon, of course, will be to survive the early onslaught and attacks by Guillard, avoiding the KO, and then find an opportunity to grab and limb and head to the mat. Once there, it becomes Lauzon's world. A stunning rear-naked choke ends this early in the second round, after Guillard wins the first. Take the incredible +350 on Lauzon, and throw a little on this being the FON at odds of 10:1. Lauzon also gets submission of the night here.
Lightweight Leonard "Bad Boy" Garcia (15-7-1) likes to bang. And he likes to have close fights. There have been four split decisions and one draw in his last seven fights! Now that's good match-making by Joe Silva. His opponent tonight, Nam Phan (16-9), is in revenge mode as he lost a close and controversial decision to Garcia in their previous fight. This will be a back-and-forth, toe-to-toe, wild swinging affair. Another FON candidate. I'll stay with the fighter looking for revenge, and lay the -230 on Phan.
That completes the main card. Now let's take a quick look at the undercard. The following two fights can be seen for FREE on Spike TV tonight at 7 p.m. CT. And they should be good ones.
Damien Maia's (14-3) jiu-jitsu is some of the best in the world. He stormed onto the UFC and rolled out sub after sub after sub. He then lost a boring decision to Anderson Silva, and he has struggled ever since in finishing his opponent's off. Tonight he takes on another Brazilian, Jorge Santiago (23-9), a seasoned veteran with the ability to end fights by strikes or on the mat. Maia wants no part of a stand-up fight (see Nate Marquardt for details). And, so this one will be fought on the ground. Santiago may have good jits. Maia has great jits. A second-round choke submission ends this. Lay the -260 on Maia.
Anthony "Showtime" Pettis (13-2) will forever be remembered for his amazing kick off the cage in his WEC finale. His opponent, Jeremy "Little Heathen" Stephens (20-6), can throw lead with his powerful uppercuts. He is a head-hunter. This one should be full of stand-up, macho fighting. Who will go down first? No one. This ends with a unanimous decision for the favorite, Anthony Pettis, at -290.
The rest of the undercard: Joey "The Mexicutioner" Beltran (13-5) has had five fights in the UFC, going 3-2. His opponent, undefeated Stipe Miocic (6-0) has had five fights in Cleveland, Ohio, and none in the UFC. So, why is he the favorite here? I guess I'll find out. But tonight I will bet on the underdog with more Octagon experience. It doesn't get any easier than that. Beltran at + 200 stuns Miocic with a first round KO, and sends the UFC Monster to the winner's window (again).
Aaron "A Train" Simpson (10-2) should have little trouble disposing of Eric "Red" Schafer (12-5-2), a journeyman with a decent ground game. Simpson overpowers here and wins by second round ground-and-pound TKO. Lay the juice, -325.
Thiquan Zhang (15-1) at -130 wins a close decision over a game Darren Elkins (12-2).
Steve Cantwell (7-4) tries to get his career back on track with a unanimous decision victory over Mike Massenzio (12-5). I'll play Cantwell and lay the -140, which I find to be a very reasonable price.
So, that's it, eleven fights with action on 10.
Now let's see if we can keep our winning streak alive with our fictitious $1000 bankroll.
Let's lay $100 to win $120 on Gray Maynard winning the lightweight belt.
Let's lay $20 to win $35 on Maynard/Edgar FON (Fight of the Night).
Let's lay $140 to win $40 on Jose Aldo retaining his featherweight belt.
Let's lay $70 to win $245 on Joe Lauzon's submission work.
Let's lay $10 to win $100 on Lauzon/Guillard FON.
Let's lay $92 to win $40 on Nam Phan, surviving Bad Boy Garcia.
Let's lay $130 to win $50 on Damien Maia's submission lesson.
Let's lay $116 to win $40 on Showtime.
Let's lay $56 to won $40 on Steve Cantwell.
Let's lay $78 to win $60 on Tiequan Zhang.
Let's lay $130 to win $40 riding the A Train.
Let's lay $60 to win $120 on the Mexicutioner's KO power.
In all we are risking $1002 to win $930.
GOOD LUCK, and don't forget to give some of your winnings to your local youth wrestling program, where tomorrow's champions are born.
Enjoy the fights! I know I will.
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